AT: Warming – Alt Caus – China

AT: Warming – Alt Caus – China

Can’t solve warming without China

As discussed at the beginning of this report, if China and the world are to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, then China’s rapid growth in total carbon dioxide emissions— though approaching only the world’s average level on a per capita basis—must be curtailed and begin to decrease within the next two decades. This process must happen in parallel with deep emissions reductions by industrialized countries, starting now, in order to save the world from dangerous climate change. Based on what the world currently knows and is capable of achieving, CCS will likely be a necessary strategy, in concert with other measures, to realize critically needed emissions abatement in China and other large fossil fuel consuming countries. Because CCS involves largescale systems engineering and geologic expertise, international collaboration will be indispensable for accelerating CCS development and deployment in the countries that need the technology. For China, which still faces daunting development needs and has relatively limited technological, financial and regulatory capacities in some areas, international collaboration and assistance are all the more critical.

China is the largest emitter of CO2

Chen et al 10 Chen, Qian, Peridas, Qiu, Ho: Natural Resources Defense Council, Friedmann: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Li, Wei: Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sung, Fowler: Clean Air Task Force, Seligsohn, Liu, Forbes: World Resources Institute, Zhang: China Tsinghua University, Zhao: Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Jason Chen, Jingjing Qian, George Peridas, Yueming Qiu, Bruce Ho, Julio Friedmann, Xiaochun Li, Ning Wei, S. Ming Sung, Mike Fowler, Deborah Seligsohn, Yue Liu, Sarah Forbes, Dongjie Zhang, Lifeng Zhao, December 2010, “Identifying Near-Term Opportunities For Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in China,” http://docs.nrdc.org/international/files/int_10121001a.pdf)//DR. H

After three decades of rapid industrialization fueled by coal, China is now the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2)—the pollutant most responsible for global warming.1 This economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, and millions more could gain from further economic development. Yet continued reliance on coal-fired power threatens to create a climate catastrophe.

China key to solving emissions

Chen et al 10 Chen, Qian, Peridas, Qiu, Ho: Natural Resources Defense Council, Friedmann: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Li, Wei: Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sung, Fowler: Clean Air Task Force, Seligsohn, Liu, Forbes: World Resources Institute, Zhang: China Tsinghua University, Zhao: Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Jason Chen, Jingjing Qian, George Peridas, Yueming Qiu, Bruce Ho, Julio Friedmann, Xiaochun Li, Ning Wei, S. Ming Sung, Mike Fowler, Deborah Seligsohn, Yue Liu, Sarah Forbes, Dongjie Zhang, Lifeng Zhao, December 2010, “Identifying Near-Term Opportunities For Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) in China,” http://docs.nrdc.org/international/files/int_10121001a.pdf)//DR. H

Coal—the most carbon-laden of the three major fossil fuels (i.e., natural gas, crude oil, and coal)—supplies nearly 70 percent of China’s energy. China’s heavy reliance on this fuel is reflected by the fact that during the last five years the country has accounted for nearly fourfifths of the global growth in coal consumption.8 In 2008, China consumed more coal than North and South America, the European Union, Russia, the Middle East, and Africa combined (see Figure 2.1). Heavy reliance on coal has sharply driven up China’s CO2 emissions. In 1994, China emitted 3.07 billion tons, or gigatons (Gt), of CO2. A decade later, in 2004, China’s CO2 emissions stood 60 percent higher, at over 5 Gt a year.9 As a result, China’s annual CO2 emissions now exceed those of the United States.10 With its CO2 emissions surging nearly eight times faster than in the rest of the world (see Figure 2.2), China has a pivotal role to play in the global effort to prevent the worst impacts of global warming from occurring.11

AT: Soft Power – Leads to War

Soft Power causes war—needs to be balanced with hard power

Hutson 10 DC Homeland Security (Mathew Hutson, July 22, 2010, “Soft Power Counterproductive without Hard Power Synergy,” http://www.examiner.com/article/soft-power-counterproductive-without-hard-power-synergy)//DR. H
The Obama Administration has referenced many times the need for the United States to dispense with the use of military force and initiate a new era of “soft power” in diplomacy. Of course any decent person wants peace, but what happens when you are confronted with a belligerent enemy? The fact remains soft power is useless without the legitimate threat of military superiority. The idea the United States provokes aggression with a strong military presence around the world is both absurd and dangerous.

The great conflicts of the first half of the 20th Century annihilated many and severely weakened the rest of the great powers. Standing on the ashes of the world in 1945 were the United States and the Soviet Union. The USSR seeing the USA a threat to its subjugated nations began proxy wars throughout the world with its current adversary. America, through its wealth and freedom, was a mortal threat because it showed a beacon to the rest of the world that societies could become stable and successful based on the twin virtues of order and liberty. This was “soft power,” but it was useless without facing down the bullets the communist world was shooting at its neighbors.

The Jihadist world sees the United States, and the world order it protects, in much the same light. Non-Muslims and even most Muslims reject Al-Qaeda’s vision of the world they wish to create. Osama bin Laden rejects the world that is currently created. Al-Qaeda flatly rejects any integration of democratic and Muslim society. The battle is for the Islamic world as a whole, not for just the hearts and minds of the citizens, but the levers of power to promulgate their view of society.

If there continues to be a vacuum of hard power from the United States, it will be filled across the World – from Korea to the Middle East to Latin America. When the United States will and capabilities come into question, foreign powers will calculate the risks of aggression and react. The result will be a self-fulfilled prophecy of major military conflicts.

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