Chicago Debate League 2013/14 Core Files
NC Frontline: Harms – Economy 151
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- 1NC Frontline: Harms – Economy 1 52
- 2NC Extension Harms – Economy 1 “Midwest Economies Turn” 1 53
1NC Frontline: Harms – Economy 151B) Importing ethanol from Cuba will collapse Midwest economies dependent on domestic corn production, and these economies are key to the U.S. economy. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] Absent a scenario in which the RFS was raised at the same time as U.S. consumption of ethanol from Cuban sugarcane increased, it is likely that importing Cuban sugarcane ethanol would have a negative economic effect on the Midwestern United States. The worst case economic scenario for the United States that could possibly arise out importing ethanol from Cuba would be that such ethanol largely supplants rather than supplements the domestic ethanol industry. This could lead to ethanol plant closures, job losses, and a regionalized economic slowdown across the Midwestern United States. This regionalized economic slowdown would be made worse if a drop in demand for corn-based ethanol led to a significant decline in corn prices and a resulting loss of purchasing power by corn farmers (whose spending in times of high commodity prices boosts small-town economies). 2) Sugarcane ethanol will never be productive enough to make a dent in global gasoline consumption. Other policy changes would be necessary to solve. SPECHT, 12 [Jonathan, Legal Advisor for Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis; “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States,” 4/24, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf] It must be stressed that sugarcane-based ethanol, from Cuba or anywhere else, is not the solution to the energy and climate change problems faced by the United States. Replacing just ten percent of global gasoline usage with sugarcane-based ethanol would require a tenfold increase in global sugarcane production. To address the problems of both peak oil and climate change, the United States must do much more to reduce its fossil fuel consumption. It should primarily do this by using the strategies highlighted in the introduction of this Article: higher fuel efficiency standards, electric cars (powered with electricity from renewable energy sources, not coal), more public transportation, more walkable neighborhoods, and shorter commutes. To the extent to which there will inevitably still be high demand for liquid fuels for automobiles, ethanol from Cuban-grown sugarcane can, and should, be part of the solution to both problems. 1NC Frontline: Harms – Economy 1523) The international ethanol market is too weak to drive up demand. IPS, 13 [Inter Press Service; “Brazilian Ethanol in the Slow Lane to Global Market Brazilian Ethanol in the Slow Lane to Global Market,” 2/17, http://globalgeopolitics.net/wordpress/2013/02/17/brazilian-ethanol-in-the-slow-lane-to-global-market/] Following a promising start, Brazil’s dream of positioning ethanol in the global market on an equal standing with petroleum-based fuels is hindered by new and old challenges. Brazil’s goal of expanding ethanol sales across the world will only be attained when there are "more countries in a position to buy and supply," noted Eduardo Leão de Sousa, director of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Union (UNICA), an organisation that represents the country’s top sugar and ethanol producers. Brazil and the United States produce close to 85 percent of the world’s ethanol, according to information from the International Energy Agency. Since it is produced almost exclusively for domestic consumption, international sales are still marginal. De Sousa told IPS that the critical level of demand necessary to stimulate ethanol production is not something that emerges spontaneously and must be driven by public policies, such as regulations that require a certain volume of renewable fuel to be blended into petroleum-based transport fuels. 4) The U.S. economy is resilient and will recover from any shock. BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK, 12 [Joshua Zumbrun and Romy Varghese; “Fed’s Plosser Says U.S. Economy Proving Resilient to Shocks,” 5/09, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-09/fed-s-plosser-says-u-dot-s-dot-economy-proving-resilient-to-shocks] Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said the U.S. economy has proven “remarkably resilient” to shocks that can damage growth, including surging oil prices and natural disasters. “The economy has now grown for 11 consecutive quarters,” Plosser said today according to remarks prepared for a speech at the Philadelphia Fed. “Growth is not robust. But growth in the past year has continued despite significant risks and external and internal headwinds.” “The U.S. economy has a history of being remarkably resilient,” said Plosser, who doesn’t have a vote on policy this year. “These shocks held GDP growth to less than 1 percent in the first half of 2011, and many analysts were concerned that the economy was heading toward a double dip. Yet, the economy proved resilient and growth picked up in the second half of the year.” 2NC Extension Harms – Economy #1 “Midwest Economies Turn” 1531 High corn prices created by government support for corn-based ethanol are necessary to prop up the agricultural sector in key economies like Iowa and Illinois. The plan cause massive and rapid job loss in those states, triggering spillover to other industries and collapsing the economy. ) Extend our SPECHT evidence. 2) The agriculture industry is key to the economy, and corn ethanol production is necessary for industry stability. BACHMAN, 07 [Justin, associate editor for Businessweek.com; “Con: Ethanol Is Our Most Viable Choice;” Feb, http://www.businessweek.com/debateroom/archives/2007/02/ethanol_too_much_hypeand_corn.html] Moreover, the U.S.’s vital agriculture economy depends heavily on healthy corn prices for farmers, and the current cost of around $4 per bushel is manageable for the economy. The genius of free-market capitalism will sort out what needs to happen as corn prices mature and other corn-dependent industries compete for the feedstock. Ethanol also could become much cheaper than it is now, roughly in line with unleaded gasoline, if Washington ends tariffs on imported ethanol. That tariff, 54 cents a gallon, distorts ethanol’s real cost and slows its U.S. expansion. 3) Corn ethanol production is key to Midwest economies. BACHMAN, 07 [Justin, associate editor for Businessweek.com; “Con: Ethanol Is Our Most Viable Choice;” Feb, http://www.businessweek.com/debateroom/archives/2007/02/ethanol_too_much_hypeand_corn.html] Additionally, the ethanol industry plays a crucial role for the U.S. Farm Belt. Higher corn prices are helping to recharge economically depressed rural economies, and new ethanol plants bring decent-paying jobs to areas that have suffered chronic underemployment (see BusinessWeek.com, 01/10/07, “Who Profits from Corn’s Pop?”). The 5.3 billion gallons of ethanol used last year consumed only 20% of the nation’s corn crop. Meeting Bush’s goal would still require less than half of the entire corn crop—and that’s only if no new corn production is added. 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