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| tering Malign Foreign Influence, Hearing before the US. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, June 14, 2017. A core element of the Russian government narrative on its relationship with Serbia rests on its common heritage in the Orthodox Church. Church leadership in Russia and Serbia amplify traditional conservative messages that frequently carry anti-EU or anti- western tones, often focused on gay rights. These ties between the churches are cultivated by senior political leaders—Russian officials emphasize these ties on visits to Serbia, often making time to meet with Serbian Orthodox Church leaders. 483 The Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS) has documented 51 pro-Kremlin associations and student organizations active in Ser- bia. 484 Among the most influential, according to CEAS, is SNP Nashi, a group modeled on the Russian pro-Kremlin youth organization Nashi (see Chapter 2). 485 SNP Nashi was created in 2006 and sought to build closer ties with Moscow, while opposing Serbia s membership in the EU. The group’s leadership has led efforts against pro-western voices in Serbia and has been sued for creating a list of the 30 biggest Serb haters.’’ 486 Similar organizations include the Patriotic Front, which has reportedly facilitated paramilitary training for Serbian children in Siberia, and the Serbian Patriotic Movement Zavetnici, which includes many student members and has advocated against Kosovo independence as well as Serbia’s proposed EU membership. 487 In the southern city of Nis, the Russian government established a Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center (RSHC) in 2012, ostensibly to help Serbia improve its emergency response capabilities and respond to natural disas- ters. 488 U.S. officials, however, have questioned the center’s true purpose. The former Commander of US. Army forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges noted his skepticism about Russian intentions in Nis, which is close to US. military personnel stationed across the border in Kosovo, saying, I don‘t believe it’s a humanitarian center. That’s the facade, but that’s not what it’s for.’’ 489 In June 2017, testifying before the US. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Assistant Secretary Yee stressed that if Serbia allows Russia to create some kind of a special center fores- pionage or other nefarious activities, it will lose control over part of its territory.’’ 490 The Russian government has requested diplomatic status for their staff at the facility, a request that Serbia has not yet honored. Security cooperation presents Russia with another powerful inroad into Serbia’s government and society. The narrative that Russia is Serbia’s protector on the world stage has a particular resonance with Serbia’s population. A 2017 public opinion survey by the Belgrade-based Demostat research center found that 41 percent VerDate Mar 15 2010 04:06 Jan 09, 2018 Jkt PO 00000 Frm 00091 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\COMMITTEE PRINT 2018\HENRY\JAN. 9 REPORT FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER 86 491 Filip Rudic, Serbians Support Military Neutrality, Research Says Balkan Insight, Sept. 5, 2017. 492 Filip Rudic, Serbia Seeks Russia Role in Kosovo Talks Balkan Insight, Dec. 20, 2017. US. Department of State, Background Information on Serbia provided to Committee Staff, June 30, 2017. Serbia Takes Delivery of First of Six MiG Fighters from Russia Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, Oct. 2, 2017; Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, PL. No. 115-44, § 231 (Enacted Aug. 2, 2017). Vincent L. Morelli, Serbia Background and US. Relations Congressional Research Serv- ice, Oct. 16, 2017. Kaitlin Lavinder, Russia Ramps Up Media and Military Influence in the Balkans The Cipher Brief, Oct. 13, 2017. perceive Russia as Serbia’s greatest friend. 491 The Russian government takes a hard line against recognition of Kosovo’s statehood and blocking resolutions at the UN on the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic frequently meets with President Putin, and as recently as December 2017 called upon Russia to play a more active role in negotiations on Serbia’s relationship with Kosovo. 492 This theme also plays out in the defense relationship between Russia and Serbia. In the last year, Serbia signed a major arms deal with Russia and sent a member of its Defense Attache team in Moscow to observe a Russian military exercise in Crimea. 493 In October 2017, Russia provided six MiG jets, and reportedly agreed to provide 30 T tanks and 30 BRDM-2 patrol combat vehicles to Serbia, all at no charge. President Vucic reportedly said that Serbia is also negotiating the purchase of the S air defense system from Russia, a deal which could trigger recently adopted US. law which mandates sanctions on any significant transaction with the Russian military or intelligence sectors. 494 Despite close military ties with Russia, Serbia also seeks to maintain security cooperation with NATO and the United States. According to the Congressional Research Service, Serbia participates in NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program, including through joint exercises and training opportunities. 495 According to John Cappello, a former Acting Defense Attache at the US. Embassy, Serbia held around 125 military-to-military exchanges with the United States in 2016, compared to only four with Russia. 496 The Russian government’s asymmetric arsenal in Serbia is multifaceted and very effective at maintaining public support fora strong relationship with Moscow. This has been achieved with little counter-messaging efforts on the part of the European Union and the United States. Given Serbia’s central role and influence in the Balkans, any strategy to counter malign influence should start with Belgrade. Since the Russian government could significantly ramp up its malign influence efforts beyond current levels in the event that Serbia made clear strides towards joining the European Union, the international community should prepare for this eventuality by incorporating some of the best lessons learned from other countries across Europe. Download 0.63 Mb. Share with your friends:
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