Aff- Turkey- N/UQ- Relations Resilient

Aff- Turkey- N/UQ- Relations Resilient

Although recent U.S. support for Turkish actions against the PKK in northern Iraq is certainly welcome in Ankara, the Kurdish challenge is likely to continue to be a source of friction in U.S.–Turkish relations in years to come. The Kurdish issue also aligns Turkish inter- ests with those of key American adversaries, particularly Iran. As dis- cussed earlier, Turkey shares fundamental security and extensive eco- nomic interests with Iran (as well as Syria) that will make it difficult, if not impossible, to bring Turkey into a firmly pro-Western camp.84 As Turkey asserts greater interest and activism in the Middle East arena, U.S. policymakers will need to contend with what some analysts view as a more independent- aminded and nationalist Turkish orientation (see Larrabee, 2008).

Aff Impacts- Turkey- Offense- Turkey Econ

Iranian influence is key to the Turkish economy

Katzman et al 10, (Kenneth, Jan 13, specialist in Middle East affairs for the Congressional Research Service, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS22323.pdf page 23 accessed 7/2) CM

Turkish-Iranian relations have a very strong economic component. About 1.5 million Iranian tourists visit Turkey annually, visa-free. Trade is growing and reached $10 billion annually in 2008, with Iranian exports of oil, oil products, and gas to Turkey accounting for $7.2 million of the total.56 Officials of both governments have said that they hope to increase trade to $30 billion a year in the next few years.57 A pipeline commissioned in 2001 carries natural gas from Tabriz to Ankara. In 2007, Turkey and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for the state-run Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) to be granted the right to develop natural gas fields in South Pars, to extract up to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) of additional gas, and to transport it via a new 1,850 kilometer pipeline to Turkey. Turkey is to invest an estimated $3.5 billion and receive 50% of the gas produced. Both governments hope that the new pipeline will eventually link with the planned 3,300-kilometer Nabucco pipeline. Scheduled to be completed in 2014, Nabucco is intended to carry natural gas from the Caspian/Central Asian region via Georgia and Turkey to Austria, bypassing Russia. Iranian gas has the potential to make Nabucco more viable especially if Russia dissuades the Central Asian states from using it and China competes for their resources as well. Turkey and Iran have formed a joint company to transfer the gas to Europe. However, the European partners in Nabucco (Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Germany, and Austria) have declared, “No Iranian gas will be accepted unless the nuclear problem is solved” and U.S. Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy Ambassador Richard Morningstar has stated, “At present, we do not support Iran’s participation in the project.”58 Turkey opposes all energy-related sanctions on Iran mainly because of its energy needs. In addition, in 2007, Turkey signed an MOU to build three natural gas-fired power plants in Iran and to import 3 to 6 billion kilowatt hours of electricity annually. The two neighbors also have plans for an ambitious new road and rail transportation network to link the Turkish Black Sea port of Trabzon and the Iranian Persian Gulf port of Bandar Abbas, and to establish a free industrial zone on their border. In private, Turkish officials have voiced some security concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran and about the impact that such a development would have on the regional balance of power. They note that Turkey is Iran’s closest neighbor and easily within range of its missiles -- even though Iran has not threatened Turkey. These concerns may have prompted Turkey’s possible purchase of U.S. Patriot air defense missiles.59 As noted above, Prime Minister Erdogan and President Gul have criticized the West’s policy on the issue and charged it with “double standards,” suggesting that Iran is being judged more harshly than presumed nuclear power Israel. In November 2008, Erdogan told a Brookings Institution audience, “We do not find it correct to tell just one country to scrap nuclear weapons. We do not think this is an honest approach. Whoever has nuclear weapons should scrap them first then let us all be rid of them.”60 The two leaders have repeatedly put Turkey forward as a possible mediator between Iran and the United States and Turkey accepted an IAEA suggestion that it act as a repository for Iran’s uranium, but Iran rejected the

**Israel Politics – Aff Answers

Netanyahu is weak now

Credibility of Netanyahu is low in Israel.

Mitnick 10 (Josh; correspondent, The Christian Science Monitor, July 7, 2010, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0707/Obama-Netanyahu-make-show-of-mending-US-Israeli-ties) CH

Though the two administrations have been at odds over how to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and how to confront Iran’s nuclear ambitions, President Obama insisted the differences had been exaggerated by the American and Israeli media. The president also said that he believes Mr. Netanyahu wants peace, echoing similar praise that former President George W. Bush bestowed on former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in 2002. Both leaders smiling, Obama responded to reporters questions about the leaders’ chilly relationship by saying, “I’ve trusted Prime Minister Netanyahu since I met him” – a compliment that many Israelis might find ironic because of the domestic credibility deficit often ascribed to the prime minister by politicians and analysts. The summit was complemented by a meeting between First Lady Michelle Obama and Netanyahu’s wife, Sara. “They really bent over backwards to make it seem like business as usual,” says Mitchell Barak, who runs the Israeli polling firm, Keevoon. “But it doesn’t lend credibility when the leaders don’t acknowledge that there was a crisis and [pretend that] everything was fine all along... Israelis already have a problem with credibility of politicians.”
The Israeli right wing have lost their confidence in Netanyahu.

Shamir 10 (Shlomo, staff writer, Haaretz, June 20, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/quiet-over-brooklyn-1.297141) EH

As soon as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government took office in Jerusalem, it seems the American Jewish right fell asleep. The fierce controversy over construction in East Jerusalem, U.S. President Barack Obama's harsh statements about Israel, the Goldstone report accusing Israel of war crimes, the torrent of international condemnations in the wake of the flotilla raid - all failed to draw rabbis and community activists out in mass demonstrations of support for Israel. In fact, one can confidently say that Israel's political problems have been taken off the agenda of Orthodox synagogues and rabbinical organizations like the Rabbinical Council of America and Young Israel and were ushered out of the public discourse of the community's right wing. "I can't explain the silence of the Orthodox community," admits Dov Hikind, a former aide to Meir Kahane, who today serves as a New York State assemblyman for Boro Park and parts of Flatbush. "It's not laziness or tiredness," says a veteran community activist in Brooklyn, who asked to remain anonymous. "Some from the generation of rabbis and politicians who led the struggle against the Oslo Accords have died, and others are in retirement homes. Israel's political elite does not have a single figure with whom they can identify and use as an example of dedication and loyalty to values." There has not been a consensus about any Israeli issue since the long-gone days of protest on behalf of the Soviet Jews. But the right always loved controversy that stirred the enthusiasm of rabbis, politicians and the rank and file. The Oslo Accords, for instance, prompted protests against the government of Israel and especially against then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin. But it seems the last time the right wing had an opportunity to actively protest was against the Gaza disengagement. Recent studies have claimed that many in the Jewish community, especially its liberal wing, are distancing themselves from Israel and feel alienated by its current policy. It now transpires that the Orthodox, who constitute the majority of the right-wing camp and who once would have seen neglecting to support a right-wing Israeli government as nothing short of heresy, have lost their trust and confidence in the Netanyahu government.

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