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- Impact D – Karzai Not k2 Stability
- Impact D – Reunification Fails
Link Turn – US RelationsEnd of relations increases Karzai’s credibility- appeases Taliban Raja 6/24 [Asif Haroon, Defense and Political analyst, 2010 Veteran’s Todayhttp://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/06/24/is-hamid-karzai-sincere-in-his-overtures-towards-pakistan/] Arrest of Baradar, deputy of Mullah Omar, by Pak security forces in January at the pointing of CIA was a setback for him since Baradar’s participation in loya jirga scheduled at Kabul in April would have made a huge difference. When he failed to get him released, he went ahead with the jirga on 2 June which was attended by 1600 people from almost all strands of Afghan society. His plan of re-integration of Taliban through negotiations was endorsed by all. His plan is however not entirely in line with US plan which hinges on first defeating the Taliban on battlefield and then negotiating with them from a position of strength. Americans are sticking to this plan since they want to leave behind a regime of their choice which could safeguard their future interests and also agree to a sizeable military presence in Baghram and Kandahar air bases. US input cripples Karzai’s credibility, fueling Taliban counterattacks Raja 6/24 [Asif Haroon, Defense and Political analyst, 2010 Veteran’s Todayhttp://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/06/24/is-hamid-karzai-sincere-in-his-overtures-towards-pakistan/] Rocket attacks on the jirga were certainly the handiwork of anti-Karzai and anti-Taliban forces. The chief suspect is Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh who was very peeved over Karzai’s change of stance towards Pakistan . He is completely influenced by RAW and Mossad and is a vehement enemy of Pakistan , particularly ISI. He has contributed a lot towards coloring perceptions of US officials based in Afghanistan against Pakistan and in assisting RAW in recruiting agents and launching them into Balochistan and FATA. Interior Minister Hanif Atmar is another anti-Pakistan Afghan official. Both are US men and have been taking commands from Washington and New Delhi . Their sacking by Karzai is a big loss for USA and India especially because of highly turbulent security situation and the US having no clear cut strategy for exit. In the wake of Marjah operation and much hyped operation Kandahar planned in September, the Taliban instead of going on the defensive have become more assertive. Rate of attacks have accelerated and so is the casualty rate of occupation forces. June is proving to be the most deadly month since 2001. In case Kandahar operation turns into another fiasco, it will have grave ramifications for USA . It will lose whatever leverage it still has on certain groups and spaces it controls. The situation has become dicey because of ouster of Gen McChrystal who had conceived the offensive plan and was making hectic preparations. Morale of occupation troops is already very low. Many feel that their civil leaders and war merchants have turned them into sacrificial lambs to upkeep their mercantile interests. Disgraceful dismissal of their commander may be resented by them and further erode their resolve to fight a losing battle. In 1989, the US abandoned Afghanistan in haste since it was a victor and had fulfilled all its objectives. The situation now is altogether different. It has not achieved even a single objective and is bound to lose the war. Under such adverse circumstances, it may not be possible for coalition troops to pullout easily and safely. It will be highly costly withdrawal. Afghans revenge against defeated foe is horrifying since they believe in total massacre and that too in most brutal ways. Impact D – Karzai Not k2 StabilityAfghan stability doesn’t rest with Karzai- other Presidential options Hoffmann 4/12 [Dr. Hubertus, advisor in the European Parliament, US Senate and German Bundestag World Security Network News, 2010, http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/showArticle3.cfm?Article_ID=18267,18190,18148,18194] Six, Karzai is not needed. Several others could do a much better job. Diplomatic dogma so far has been that there is no alternative to him. This is totally wrong. One option is Abdullah Addullah, but there are several others. Afghanistan needs a new beginning and a credible, not rotten, government. A relatively unknown newcomer, coming out of the blue like Obama, could achieve this. Afghanistan needs a new and younger man representing hope for this ancient land, not a burned-out, unreliable president. Impact D – Reunification FailsReconciliation fails- Taliban refuses to comply Pratt 6/11 [David, Staff Writer, 2010, The Herald, Lexis] KLS Not only were there few grass roots representatives invited, but those that were present came at great personal risk. Knowing full well that the coalition are relying on recruiting local officials to try to build up the Afghan government in contested provinces like Helmand and Kandahar, the Taliban have been ratcheting up a campaign of targeted assassinations on those from within that very community. One tribal elder at the recent peace jirga told of how another was killed by unknown armed men after returning from a similar meeting just a few weeks ago. Yesterday, David Cameron congratulated President Hamid Karzai on convening the jirga, and trying to encourage elements of the Taliban to come back into the political mainstream. But the inescapable fact remains that the Taliban, Hezb-i-Islami and the Haqqani network the three main forces fighting international troops in Afghanistan all refuse to recognise the jirga process and were never going to be part of that meeting. Reintegration has been a farce since 2005 Siddique 2/26 [Abubakar, Radio Free Europe http://mobygroup.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1016&Itemid=66] Sibghatullah Mojaddedi the head of Afghan Senate and a key Karzai ally, resigned from his post on February 20, claiming his "advice" was not being taken. But Kabul insiders have told RFE/RL that the octogenarian cleric and former president had sought to head the foreign-backed reintegration effort. The Karzai administration, the sources say, was reluctant to give him the sensitive post because of his failures in delivering tangible results while overseeing a government reconciliation body since 2005. 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