UQ – Grain Demand – High
McFerron and Wilson 12 (Whitney and Jeff, staff writers, March 9, 2012, Bloomberg, “Global Wheat, Soy and Corn Reserves Decline As Demand Grows, Crops Falter”, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/world-wheat-soybean-corn-reserves-dropping-as-demand-grows-crops-falter.html, June 29, 2012) ALK
U.S. farm exports rose to a record $136.3 billion in 2011 on surging demand for grain and meat in Asia. The government today boosted its forecast of U.S. wheat exports by 2.6 percent from February, which will send domestic stockpiles to a three- year low. Global food prices tracked by the United Nations rose for a second consecutive month in February on higher costs for cereals, cooking oils and sugar. “This was probably one of the best reports we’ve seen in wheat in six or seven months,” Mike Zuzolo, the president of Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting in Lafayette, Indiana, said in a telephone interview. “Corn is getting replaced by wheat in the feed rations and some of the food rations even, because of the price discount.” Feed Demand Global use of wheat in livestock feed will reach a record 131.06 million tons, up from 130.66 million estimated last month, the USDA said. Corn futures for May delivery are trading near parity with wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade, compared with an average discount of about 89 cents in the past year. Global wheat exports may reach 142.93 million tons, up from 140.25 million forecast last month. Today’s report is “neutral-to-bullish wheat on higher U.S. exports, lower global stocks,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Hussein Allidina said in a report. “Higher imports in Iran and North Africa are needed to satiate higher domestic demand, providing the impetus for higher exports from Australia, Brazil and Kazakhstan, as well as the U.S.” Wheat prices are up 9 percent since reaching this year’s low on Jan. 18, after prices dropped 18 percent last year. Wheat futures for May delivery rose 1.3 percent to settle at $6.43 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. in Chicago.
Global demand for grain is high but US exports are low
WAOB 12 (World Agricultural Outlook Board, March 9, 2012, “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates”, http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//2010s/2012/wasde-03-09-2012.pdf June 29, 2012) ALK
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use is more than offset by higher exports. Projected food use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher based on shipments and sales to date. Projected exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat are each raised 10 million bushels. Projected Durum exports are raised 5 million bushels. Prices received by producers for the 2011/12 marketing year are projected at $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged with lower China and Bangladesh beginning stocks offsetting higher production for Australia. Beginning stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons for China with an increase in food, seed, and industrial use for 2010/11. Australia production for 2011/12 is raised 1.2 million tons in line with the latest official estimate by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Link – Ag Eports
Carrico 10 (journalist for “high plains/Midwest agriculture journal” for over 6 years, March 10, 2010, “Grain terminal, port important step for exports” http://www.hpj.com/archives/2010/mar10/mar22/0322ExportStorywpicsJBsr.cfm, ML)
There is a continual need for exporting agriculture products in the Los Angeles area because the ports are so big, and so many containers need to be filled with items to return to countries around the world.
The Port of Los Angeles is the No. 1 container port in America, according to Jim MacLellan, director of trade services for the Port.
The Port encompasses 7,500 acres, 43 miles of waterfront, and features 27 cargo terminals, including dry and liquid bulk, container, breakbulk, automobile, and omni facilities. Combined, these terminals handle almost 190 million metric revenue tons of cargo annually.
"Each big ship, on average, holds 6,500 containers. It takes three crane gangs three days to unload a big cargo ship," said MacLellan.
Exports out of the Port of LA have increased since Jan. 1. He said right now they meet the demand but have to do so at a steady pace. In December 2009, there was a 40-percent increase in exports over December 2008.
"Imports are only up marginally, but exports continue to push us," he said. "Export increases are seen mostly in scrap paper, scrap metal and animal feed. Just recently, agriculture products in general have entered into the top five exports."
Increases in grain and cotton exports are being seen and are supporting the agriculture product category.
MacLellan said most of the imports continue to be general department store merchandise--products that people wear, use and clean with, as well as electronics and automobiles.
Environmental issues continue to be important to the port officials. A recipient of numerous environmental awards, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 2007 Clean Air Excellence Award, the Port of Los Angeles is committed to innovating cleaner, greener ways of doing business.
US ports are key to agriculture exports
Department of Agriculture 9 (January, “A Reliable Waterway System
Is Important to Agriculture” http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5063401, ML)
Grain Exports The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces, including nearly 45 percent of the wheat, 35 percent of the soybeans, and 20 percent of the corn. Approximately 48 percent of total grain exports departed from the Mississippi Gulf in 2007. The Mississippi Gulf normally handles or inspects over 2 billion bushels of grain annually (USDA GIPSA). The Pacific Northwest (PNW) ports accounted for 24 percent of U.S. grain exports in 2007. The PNW handled over 1 billion bushels of grain in 2007. The December 11, 2008, USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for 2008/09 U.S. exports include: Feed grains—49.5 million metric tons (54.6 million short tons) Corn—1,800 million bushels (50.4 million short tons) Soybeans—1,050 million bushels (31.5 million short tons) Wheat—1,000 million bushels (30 million short tons) Soybean meal—8.4 million short tons Rice—106 million hundredweight (5.3 million short tons) Sorghum—130 million bushels (3.6 million short tons) Soybean oil—2,050 million pounds (1 million short tons)
Port infrastructure is critical to agriculture
Department of Agriculture 12 (January, “A Reliable Waterway System
Is Important to Agriculture” http://www.ams.usda.gov/AMSv1.0/getfile?dDocName=STELPRDC5063401, ML)
Big Picture Overview U.S. agriculture is expected to contribute $26.5 billion to the U.S. balance of trade in fiscal 2012 (USDA ERS/FAS Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, November 30, 2011). Exports are forecast to reach $132 billion, while imports are forecast to reach $105.5 billion. Forestry and fishery products, and critical farm inputs such as fertilizer, feed, and fuel move on the waterway system as well. Secretary Vilsack noted that every $1 billion in farm exports supports roughly 8,400 jobs in the United States. In calendar year 2010, 81 percent of U.S. agricultural exports (158 million metric tons), and 77 percent of imports (37 million metric tons) were waterborne (Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, and PIERS). Exporters, importers, and domestic shippers depend on authorized port and waterway depths and widths, and locks and dam infrastructure. U.S. importers and certain domestic shippers pay the Harbor Maintenance Tax (HMT), a 0.125 percent ad valorem tax on the value of the cargo. Estimated fiscal 2012 HMT revenues and investment interest are $1.7 billion. Requested transfers from the fund are $869 million, yielding a year-end balance of $7.2 billion. In 2011 $84 million in revenues and investment interest from a 20 cents per gallon tax on diesel fuel for commercial vessels engaged in inland waterways transportation goes into the Inland Waterways Trust Fund to finance one half the Federal costs of authorized locks and dams projects. Fiscal 2011 transfers included $97.2 million from the fund and $74 million is requested for fiscal 2012. In fiscal 2010, U.S.-flag vessels earned $382 million from 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. humanitarian food aid under cargo preference law. Cargo preference helps provide U.S. seafarer and vessel availability in wartime and other national emergencies.
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