Document name wecc scenarios


Scenario Two - Overview by Key Driver



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Scenario Two - Overview by Key Driver


Key Driver

Scenario Summary

The evolution of electricity demand in the WECC region

The economy recovers and electricity demand growth returns. Improving energy efficiency and energy management systems. New growth comes primarily from the transportation sector.

The evolution of electricity supply in the WECC region

Natural gas-fired power generation expands based on cost and the need for flexible generation capacity, but is limited by higher carbon prices. Renewable resources expand supported by policy and higher carbon prices. Coal-fired power is reduced but not eliminated. New advanced nuclear power systems are considered.

Innovation in electricity supply technology & distribution systems

Continued innovation in all renewable energy forms and energy storage. Carbon capture successfully demonstrated.

The course of regional economic growth in the WECC region

Growth in the early years remains slow, with a pickup in the middle years, followed by solid growth in the latter years. New industries and strength in traditional industries of mining and commodities spur job growth. Clearer regulatory policy sending sound signals for investment.

Changes in the regulation of electric power systems in the WECC region

Policy changes in support of increasing renewable portfolio standards and caps on carbon emissions.

Changes in federal regulation affecting electric power industry

Policy changes to support national renewable portfolio standards and building of energy infrastructure on federal lands with adequate environmental protections.

Changes in social values related to energy issues

Voters express strong preferences for environmental sustainability. Consumers become accustomed to more information and choices in their energy services usage.

Changes in society’s preferences for environmental & natural resources

Continued support for sustainable environmental development and stewardship of natural resources.

Shifts in national & global financial markets

Eventual stabilization of financial markets following based on wiser economic policy and growth, which reduces deficit spending. U.S. and global financial markets return to accommodative credit growth patterns.

Shifts in the availability & prices of commodity fuels used in the electricity sector

Shale gas development regulated. Renewable energy costs become more competitive with fossil fuel-fired energy.



Scenario Two: Form of Power5

Description

Direction of Change

TBD by Model Results

Central Station Coal/CCS

Large-scale coal-fired power generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections/with clean carbon sequestration.

+increasing, but with CCS only

Central Station Gas


Large-scale natural gas-fired generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections

~same as historical levels, competing with renewables

Central Station Solar

Large-scale solar power generation at the megawatt scale needing transmission connections

+increasing with technology breakthroughs

Central Station Wind

Large-scale wind-powered generation in the megawatt scale needing transmission connections

+increasing with economic growth and new technology

Central Station Nuclear

Large-scale nuclear-powered generation needing transmission connections

--fast decline due to clean alternatives

Geothermal Power

Central station geothermal needing transmission connections

+increasing with new technology

Hydro Power Expansion/Extension

Continuation or expansion of hydro power generation at existing plants needing transmission connections

~same as historical levels

Distributed Solar

Small scale (generally roof top photovoltaic systems) that are located at the site of consumption

++increasing with new technology and economic growth

Distributed Energy Efficiency

Multiple forms of investment in capital stock which leads to reduced energy consumption or which support load management

++increasing with new technology and economic growth

Distributed Gas

Small-scale natural gas-fired generation serving loads in a local area which may or may not require distribution

+increasing with economic growth

Distributed Power Storage

Use of local sources of electric energy storage from stationary or mobile sources

++increasing with new technology and economic growth

Large Scale Central Storage

Using a range of technologies and needing transmission connections

+increasing with new technology



Scenario Two – Overview of Modeling Parameters


The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario Two shown against the Reference Case parameters.

Input Parameters

Units

2032
Reference Value

Scenario 2

Fuel & Carbon Costs

 

 

 

Natural Gas

$/MMBtu

$6.58

$6.58

Coal

$/MMBtu

$1.62

$1.62

Carbon

$/ton

$37.11

$100.00

Capital Cost Reductions

 

 

 

Geothermal

% below 2012 cost

0%

10%

IGCC w/ CCS

% below 2012 cost

0%

40%

Solar PV

% below 2012 cost

31%

55%

Solar Thermal

% below 2012 cost

25%

45%

Wind

% below 2012 cost

8%

17%

Net Energy for Load

 

 

 

Load

GWh

1,163,526

1,210,159

Policy-Driven Load Reductions

GWh

0

-250,171

Policy-Driven Electrification

GWh

0

+160,000

WECC Net Energy for Load

GWh

1,163,526

1,119,988

Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load

%/yr

1.5%

1.9%

Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load

%/yr

1.5%

1.1%

Coincident Peak Demand

 

 

 

Load

MW

198,715

206,685

Policy-Driven Load Reductions

MW

-4,952

-50,365

Policy-Driven Electrification

MW

0

+18,265

WECC Coincident Peak

MW

193,763

174,585

Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load

%/yr

1.4%

1.8%

Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load

%/yr

1.2%

0.1%

LOAD NUMBERS SHOWN ARE DRAFT AND NEED TO BE REVIEWED ONCE INPUTS ARE FINALIZED

Renewable Goals

 

 

 

State RPS

% of Load Energy

Current state policies

Current state policies, increased by 50%

Federal RPS

% of Load Energy

none

15% minimum RPS

In-state RPS Requirement

% of RPS requirement

Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements

No preferences for in-state resources




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