Document name wecc scenarios
Scenario Two - Policy Themes
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Scenario Two - Policy ThemesThe chart below indicates how policy areas might influence the context in which energy related decisions are to be made within scenario two. The indicators on the charts will also be used to indicate changes from the common case assumptions, which will be the basis for WECC quantitative modeling. The common case assumptions should be thought of as a world, which naturally extrapolates from current conditions with no extraordinary changes. Key: ‘++’ = Most aggressive; ‘+’=aggressive ; ‘-’= less aggressive; ‘– –’ = least aggressive; ‘0’ = neutral
Scenario Three: Focus on Short-Term Consumer CostsNarrow and Slow Economic Growth in the WECC region with Stagnating Standards of Living/Evolutionary Changes in Electric Supply and Distribution Technology This is a world in which the failure to regulate the financial sector coupled with inadequate policy choices exacerbate the detrimental impacts of the 2008-2009 trifecta of a credit crisis, the burst housing bubble, and massive government deficits. Economic growth in the United States, including the Western region, is restrained for two decades. Similar to the long-term doldrums, which hit the Japanese economy starting in the 1990s, a large overhang of debt constrains both lending in the broader economy and government investment initiatives to spur growth. Increases in taxes, failure to invest in the future and worsening wealth disparities also play a role in slowing growth. Societal values are shaken by a loss of confidence in financial institutions and in the regulation of these institutions. Even as values like protection of natural resources remain, they are balanced against economic costs in times when scarcity is felt in society. States hit particularly hard by the housing crisis in the Western region are very slow to recover as they dig out of years of real estate overcapacity. Unemployment remains above historical levels, keeping consumer spending on a slow growth trajectory. Within the electricity sector, the slower economic growth discourages power companies in all sectors from taking large risks and causes most companies to be cautious when investing in and implementing new technologies and continues delays in transmission investment. Those technologies that are low risk, proven, and assured of cost recovery proceed at a steady pace. Low natural gas prices encourage the continued use of traditional power generation technologies in concert with improving renewable technologies that meet portfolio standards required by legislators and regulators. Expansion of transmission systems occurs mostly within states as states focus on self-sufficiency and minimal voluntary power exchanges occurs to meet system reliability. Key Scenario Metrics in 2032: Natural Gas Price = 2032 Reference Case value: $6.58 Cost of Carbon = $0.00 Policy Adjusted Peak Load Growth Rate* = 1.1% (2032 Ref Case = 1.5%) Policy Adjusted Demand Growth Rate* = 0.8% (2032 Ref Case = 1.2%) * Adjusted for known electrification, DSM and energy efficiency policies included in the modeling results Directory: Reliability Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status Download 483.4 Kb. Share with your friends:
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