Figure 3.2: “Defying the Odds: Virginia Brings a New Coal-Fired Plant Online”

Figure 3.2: “Defying the Odds: Virginia Brings a New Coal-Fired Plant Online”

Source: “Defying the Odds: Virginia Brings a New Coal-Fired Plant Online,”

Public Utilities Fortnightly, December 2012

As 2032 comes to a close and the new decade officially begins to take shape, there are four pressing questions facing WECC energy markets in this world:

1. 
   What’s the right balance between reliability and cost?
   
2. 
   How much longer can concerns about cost and reliability be more important than concerns about climate change?
   
3. 
   When and how quickly should the U.S. retire natural gas plants that are now the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the power sectors (having now equaled or surpassed the declining coal market)?
   
4. 
   What kinds of generation should be built to support the next build out of the power system? Are carbon sequestration or other technologies mature and reliable enough to address climate change?
   

Scenario Three - Overview by Key Driver

Key Driver	Scenario Summary
The evolution of electricity demand in WECC region	Combination of high unemployment and decline in incomes means that electricity demand remains stagnant over the 20-year period.
The evolution of electricity supply in the WECC region	Coal-fired plants phased out over the duration of the scenario with natural gas taking its place. A balanced, portfolio approach to energy supply takes hold.
Innovation in electricity supply technology & distribution systems	Smart grid technology developed in order to support industry goals of managing costs and assuring reliability.
The course of regional economic growth in the WECC region	WECC states and provinces suffer from high unemployment and decline in incomes. Most still feeling the long-terms effects of the credit crunch and the housing crisis. Increased pockets of poverty.
Changes in the regulation of lectric power systems in the WECC region	With reductions in the overall electricity demand, regulatory bodies take a hands-off approach to the power industry. Tax breaks and financial incentives for renewables eliminated due to maturation of the sector.
Changes in federal regulation affecting electric power industry	Both FERC and EPA develop policies that encourage the industry to transition from coal to natural gas and other renewables.
Changes in social values related to energy issues	Political unrest in the Middle East drives public’s desire to reduce exposure to Middle Eastern oil and find other, more secure, sources of power.
Changes in society’s preferences for environmental & natural resources	Public pressure on the power industry forces companies to deal with carbon emissions in a pro-active manner. With little capital available, companies must use low-cost efficiencies to reduce emissions from coal-fired plants.
Shifts in national & global financial markets	Credit at a premium as small and mid-sized enterprises cannot access capital through the banks. Highly volatile financial and banking sectors across the globe.
Shifts in the availability & prices of commodity fuels used in the electricity sector	By 2031, fossil fuel usage much lower. Increase in the number of electric vehicles means decrease in gas usage. Coal prices decline due to plant retirements. Lowered natural gas prices spur increased use.

Scenario Three: Form of Power	Description	Direction of Change
Central Station Coal/CCS	Large-scale coal-fired power generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections/with clean carbon sequestration.	~no change from historic levels due to economic conditions
Central Station Gas	Large-scale natural gas-fired generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections	++increasing as cheapest source of power
Central Station Solar	Large-scale solar power generation at the megawatt scale needing transmission connections	-decreasing due to lack of new technology and slow economy
Central Station Wind	Large-scale wind-powered generation in the megawatt scale needing transmission connections	~maintains relative position
Central Station Nuclear	Large-scale nuclear-powered generation needing transmission connections	~maintains relative position with extensions
Geothermal Power	Central station geothermal needing transmission connections	~maintains relative position
Hydro Power Expansion/Extension	Continuation or expansion of hydro power generation at existing plants needing transmission connections	~maintains relative position with extensions
Distributed Solar	Small scale (generally roof-top photovoltaic systems) that are located at the site of consumption	+increases due to local initiatives
Distributed Energy Efficiency	Multiple forms of investment in capital stock which leads to reduced energy consumption or which support load management	+increases due to local initiatives
Distributed Gas	Small-scale natural gas-fired generation serving loads in a local area which may or may not require distribution	+increases due to local initiatives
Distributed Power Storage	Use of local sources of electric energy storage from stationary or mobile sources	+increases due to local initiatives
Large Scale Central Storage	Using a range of technologies and needing transmission connections	~relatively same with no innovation

Directory: Reliability
Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction
Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor
Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status

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