Document name wecc scenarios

Scenario Three – Overview of Modeling Parameters

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• Input Parameters Units 2032 Reference Value
• Capital Cost Reductions
• Net Energy for Load
• Coincident Peak Demand
• Renewable Goals

Scenario Three – Overview of Modeling Parameters The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario Three shown against the Reference Case parameters. Input Parameters Units 2032 Reference Value Scenario 3 Fuel & Carbon Costs Natural Gas $/MMBtu $6.58 $6.58 Coal $/MMBtu $1.62 $1.62 Carbon $/ton $37.11 $0.00 Capital Cost Reductions Geothermal % below 2012 cost 0% 0% IGCC w/ CCS % below 2012 cost 0% 0% Solar PV % below 2012 cost 31% 15% Solar Thermal % below 2012 cost 25% 12% Wind % below 2012 cost 8% 0% Net Energy for Load Load GWh 1,163,526 1,118,518 Policy-Driven Load Reductions GWh 0 0 Policy-Driven Electrification GWh 0 0 WECC Net Energy for Load GWh 1,163,526 1,118,518 Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load %/yr 1.5% 1.1% Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load %/yr 1.5% 1.1% Coincident Peak Demand Load MW 198,715 191,023 Policy-Driven Load Reductions MW -4,952 -4,952 Policy-Driven Electrification MW 0 0 WECC Coincident Peak MW 193,763 186,070 Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load %/yr 1.4% 1.0% Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load %/yr 1.2% 0.8% LOAD NUMBERS SHOWN ARE DRAFT AND NEED TO BE REVIEWED ONCE INPUTS ARE FINALIZED Renewable Goals State RPS % of Load Energy Current state policies Current state policies, reduced by 50% Federal RPS % of Load Energy none none In-state RPS Requirement % of RPS requirement Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements Directory: Reliability Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status Download 483.4 Kb. Share with your friends: