Document name wecc scenarios


Figure 4.1: Shale Gas Technically Recoverable Resources and Cumulative Production



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Figure 4.1: Shale Gas Technically Recoverable Resources and Cumulative Production




Source: “Review of Emerging Resources: U.S. Shale Gas and Shale Oil Plays,” U.S. EIA, July 2011

With a slow-growing economy constrained by both the aftershocks of the housing bust and high unemployment, new energy demand is not available to sustain profits and growth in the electric power industry. However, because of growing public and regulatory pressure to confront climate change and reduce carbon emissions, coal-fired generation is on an accelerated downward trajectory. The output of those plants must be replaced, providing a compelling case for increased investment by the electric power sector despite low economic growth. Only the most efficient and cleanest coal-fired plants or those whose owners can handle the costs of environmental upgrades can survive tighter national emissions regulations put forth by the EPA. Even during slow economic times, the political consensus sustains the demand to move toward a cleaner power sector—one that does not pollute the air or produce wastes that foul water.

Severe weather-related events and smog-filled scorching summer days in major North American cities, though not conclusively tied to climate change, raise interest and concern about long-term resilience among a growing number of voters and citizens—including, but not limited to, those who care deeply about environmental issues. In some cases, severe storms wreak such havoc with aging energy infrastructure that politicians and utilities begin to explore significant investments and innovation—like burying lines to reduce exposure to severe weather—that will minimize repair costs and reduce power outages. Drought also exacerbates water shortages in the Colorado River System and in both Northern and Southern California. In many cases, state and provincial governments take the lead from the federal government to push for more innovation and cooperation across the industry. California and Colorado raise their RPS to 40%.

Coupled with the above factors and declines in coal-fired power, other drivers propel a shift in electric power generation. Information, communications, and sensor technologies expand aggressively into the power business, pointing the way toward new approaches to energy efficiency, load management, and cost reduction. Distributed power systems—many based on a variety of improving solar energy technologies—small-scale storage technology using advanced battery systems, and two-way communication demonstrate new possibilities for reliable electric service (see Figure 4.2 below for a view of investment activity in solar energy).


Figure 4.2: 2010 Annual Solar Megawatts Ranking by Utility Company





2010 Annual Solar Megawatts Ranking by Utility Company

Company

Installed Megawatts of Solar Power

Pacific Gas & Electric

157.3

Florida Power & Light

87.2

Public Service Electric & Gas (NJ)

74.7

Southern California Edison

68.4

Xcel Energy (CO)

42.0

Tri-State G&T Co-op Assoc. (CO)

30.2

Arizona Public Service

29.9

San Diego Gas & Electric

27.1

Jersey Central Power & Light (NJ)

22.9

Duke Energy Carolinas (NC)

20.8

Source: “The 2010 Solar Electric Power Association Ranking,” The Public Utilities Fortnightly, July 2011

Since the late 1980s, electricity industry researchers at places like the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have experimented with smart grid technologies. Their research proves useful as it establishes a widely accepted understanding of the components of a smart-grid infrastructure. These components begin to combine to provide better service to end-users. Better service results from an increase in energy management options for all players in the industry structure working backwards and forward (see Figure 4.3 for a high level model of the many aspects of the emerging smart grid)).

An integrated vision for the industry includes demand-side management, energy efficiency, load management, price signaling, support for electric vehicles, variable-power generation, distributed systems, and storage. Utilities design new business models to replace revenues lost because of stagnant economic growth and the emergence of distributed generation and energy efficiency. Decoupling electricity supply from the full-range of energy services becomes more prominent across the West. A regional electricity market, facilitated by both technology and IT advances, lowers costs, increases renewables, and reduces carbon emissions.


Figure 4.3: High Level Smart Grids Domains




Source: “Securing Tomorrow’s Grid Part 1,” Public Utilities Fortnightly, July 2011

States and provinces based in WECC undertake limited policy actions to spur economic growth. These actions often support emerging energy technologies that create new industries and well-paying jobs. Within the region, there are attempts to implement polices to limit carbon and greenhouse gas emissions via caps. Significant, if not widely followed, changes in federal regulations, such as requiring planning for variable electric resources, enable companies to develop new power storage and battery technologies.




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