Document name wecc scenarios


Scenario Four – Overview of Modeling Parameters



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Scenario Four – Overview of Modeling Parameters


The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario Four shown against the Reference Case parameters.7

Input Parameters

Units

2032
Reference Value


Scenario 4

Fuel & Carbon Costs










Natural Gas

$/MMBtu

$6.58

$5.00

Coal

$/MMBtu

$1.62

$1.62

Carbon

$/ton

$37.11

$75.00

Capital Cost Reductions










Geothermal

% below 2012 cost

0%

0%

IGCC w/ CCS

% below 2012 cost

0%

0%

Solar PV

% below 2012 cost

31%

31%

Solar Thermal

% below 2012 cost

25%

25%

Wind

% below 2012 cost

8%

12%

Net Energy for Load










Load

GWh

1,163,526

1,118,518

Policy-Driven Load Reductions

GWh

0

-125,085

Policy-Driven Electrification

GWh

0

+50,000

WECC Net Energy for Load

GWh

1,163,526

1,043,433

Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load

%/yr

1.5%

1.1%

Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load

%/yr

1.5%

0.4%

Coincident Peak Demand










Load

MW

198,715

191,023

Policy-Driven Load Reductions

MW

-4,952

-25,182

Policy-Driven Electrification

MW

0

+5,708

WECC Coincident Peak

MW

193,763

171,548

Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load

%/yr

1.4%

1.0%

Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load

%/yr

1.2%

0.0%

LOAD NUMBERS SHOWN ARE DRAFT AND NEED TO BE REVIEWED ONCE INPUTS ARE FINALIZED

Renewable Goals

 

 

 

State RPS

% of Load Energy

Current state policies

Current state policies, increased by 50%

Federal RPS

% of Load Energy

none

15% minimum RPS

In-state RPS Requirement

% of RPS requirement

Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements

Current in-state preferences applied to current policy RPS requirements; no preference for in-state resources to meet increase in RPS targets




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