The scenario narrative above is a largely qualitative description of a potential world for the WECC region over the next 20 years. As part of the TEPPC planning objectives the scenarios are also to be used to generate alternative transmission plans through modeling study cases with the Study Case Development Tool and the Network Expansion Model. During 2012 a team from the SPSG created quantitative modeling inputs to represent the scenarios for use in the Long-Term Planning Tool (LTPT). Those quantitative representations vary by scenario and the full detail of this work will be presented to WECC stakeholders during the first quarter of 2013 by WECC staff. Shown below are some of the key distinguishing model parameters for Scenario One shown against the Reference Case parameters.
Input Parameters
|
Units
|
2032
Reference Value
|
Scenario 1
|
Fuel & Carbon Costs
|
|
|
|
Natural Gas
|
$/MMBtu
|
$6.58
|
$10.00
|
Coal
|
$/MMBtu
|
$1.62
|
$1.62
|
Carbon
|
$/ton
|
$37.11
|
$37.11
|
Capital Cost Reductions
|
|
|
|
Geothermal
|
% below 2012 cost
|
0%
|
0%
|
IGCC w/ CCS
|
% below 2012 cost
|
0%
|
0%
|
Solar PV
|
% below 2012 cost
|
31%
|
31%
|
Solar Thermal
|
% below 2012 cost
|
25%
|
25%
|
Wind
|
% below 2012 cost
|
8%
|
0%
|
Net Energy for Load
|
|
|
|
Load
|
GWh
|
1,163,526
|
1,210,159
|
Policy-Driven Load Reductions
|
GWh
|
0
|
0
|
Policy-Driven Electrification
|
GWh
|
0
|
0
|
WECC Net Energy for Load
|
GWh
|
1,163,526
|
1,210,159
|
Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load
|
%/yr
|
1.5%
|
1.9%
|
Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load
|
%/yr
|
1.5%
|
1.9%
|
Coincident Peak Demand
|
|
|
|
Load
|
MW
|
198,715
|
206,685
|
Policy-Driven Load Reductions
|
MW
|
-4,952
|
-4,952
|
Policy-Driven Electrification
|
MW
|
0
|
0
|
WECC Coincident Peak
|
MW
|
193,763
|
201,733
|
Implied Growth Rate, Unadjusted Load
|
%/yr
|
1.4%
|
1.8%
|
Implied Growth Rate, Adjusted Load
|
%/yr
|
1.2%
|
1.6%
|
LOAD NUMBERS SHOWN ARE DRAFT AND NEED TO BE REVIEWED ONCE INPUTS ARE FINALIZED
|
Renewable Goals
|
|
|
|
State RPS
|
% of Load Energy
|
Current state policies
|
Current state policies
|
Federal RPS
|
% of Load Energy
|
none
|
none
|
In-state RPS Requirement
|
% of RPS requirement
|
Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements
|
Current in-state preferences applied to RPS requirements
|
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