Document name wecc scenarios
Final Years: 2023-2033/A Bright New Day
Download 483.4 Kb.
|
Final Years: 2023-2033/A Bright New DayThe global recession of 2008-2010 is long forgotten. Global financial markets are completely restructured and sovereign debt is under control compared against what was the case during the global recession. With the positive resolution of the European Union’s problems, worldwide growth outpaces pre-recession rates, yet seems to be managed in ways to prevent a new “bubble” as lessons learned take effect. By 2032, annual economic growth in the WECC region has risen to 3.5%, thus recouping jobs lost in the recession. Plus, there are now enough new jobs to cover the needs from expanding industry sectors and steady population growth. The long needed national infrastructure rebuild and upgrades continue across the region, adding new jobs and expanding basic industries. The WECC region is once again the land of opportunity. Even as the population ages population growth, though inconsistent across the region, outpaces the rest of the U.S. It’s strongest among the Northwest and Pacific coast states and provinces. In addition, retirees decide once again to move to Arizona and Nevada despite increases in temperature and water constraints. Relations between the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries remain strained, though some stability emerges. This stability comes at a price, however, as many of the new democracies created during the Arab Spring sometimes pursue policies considered antithetical to the global economic interests of the U.S. Economic growth outside the U.S. is driven by China and India. This is critical due to the importance of exports to continued U.S. economic growth. Many of those exports support growth in the WECC region and thus demand for energy. High technology exports from companies in the WECC region are a big contributor to the revitalization of the U.S. economy during these years. By 2032, the smart grid is spreading across the U.S. and Canada. This was enabled by standards and interconnection agreements between the two countries supported by states and provinces. The grid now “…intelligently integrates the actions of all users connected to it—generators, consumers and those that do both—in order to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies…”3 Taking advantage of improvements in information and communications technologies, including a new generation of computer chips, the grid now works in real time gathering and acting on information effectively. The grid does four things very well: (1) Ensures reliability; (2) Seamlessly integrates renewables; (3) Improves economics; and (4) Guarantees the sustainability of generation, distribution and use of electricity across North America.4 Traditional power companies, some of which still serve primarily rural areas, still sustain reliable service by having access to power resources beyond their peak demand. They maintain backup reserves that can be put into service quickly. What’s emerging in the improved more independent power system is one running much closer to its limits, albeit with much higher productivity. Running a leaner system also helps to lower costs; however, when the limits are reached, there are new approaches in the provisions for back-up reserves. These new approaches now drive markets for energy storage technologies and smaller forms of clean, distributed generation. In fact, high-density DG areas are now significant enough to be considered “resource areas” for transmission expansion allowing production to be shipped outside of the DG local area. Over the past decade, improvements in storage solutions—pumped storage, compressed air, and advanced batteries—have solved the basic problem of storing electricity generated for both back-up reserves and off-peak demand. Solar and wind generation are also integrating improved technologies for energy storage. The concept of a personal energy portfolio based on features like time-of-use pricing, special rates for electric vehicle charging, feed-in tariffs for solar power systems, and incentives for load management creates an array of possibilities for savvy consumers, both large and small. Some communities in the WECC region sign specialized deals with companies for clean energy projects for their local utilities. Consumers quickly adapt to a new power system that provides them with more choices, even if they sometimes make a bad decision. Because the power system is cleaner and allows for more options, it’s viewed as a significant improvement in power services. Consumer surveys find a persistent desire for even cleaner systems and for more information on energy usage and conservation. In an effort to spur further technology advances in the power sector and to meet growing demands to address climate change, a national energy policy focusing on costs, air quality, CO2 emissions and fossil fuel export policies, is enacted. The law has several new aspects: (1) An increase in energy efficiency standards; (2) Additional renewable energy requirements in utility generation portfolios; (3) A ($37/ton) carbon tax; and (4) An expansion through the use of incentives of the market for cleaner, more efficient, and smarter energy technology. At the national level, this law complements ongoing efforts to further reduce imports of oil. In mid-decade the U.S. is close to real “energy independence", and as a result is well-protected against global oil and gas volatility. Driven by global demand and exhaustion of the best shale plays, natural gas reaches $10 in the U.S. With global demand on the rise and prices high, gas and coal produced in the WECC region is sent to new shipping facilities on the Pacific Coast for export to meet increased Asian demand—but with an additional export carbon tax to continue revenue generation and to be consistent with the new national energy policy. As economic growth continues, a major shift away from fossil fuel-driven power takes hold. Over the last decade, as economic growth continues there is increasing public concern about the ongoing use of natural gas. Combined with the increasingly destructive effects of climate change, states are now beginning to consider new RPS. Almost all new generation is renewable as clean energy technology improvements in EE (Energy Efficiency), EVs (Electrical Vehicles) and DG/DR reach critical mass. 20 years of continual improvements in solar, wind and geothermal technologies have brought them to cost parity with natural gas. Wind has displaced coal-fired plants in regions with less-than-ideal solar conditions, leading to additional coal plant retirements. Solar thermal is highly competitive on utility scale applications, and EGS is now commonplace where it makes economic sense. Both renewed efforts to reduce CO2 emissions along with commercial viability of small modular nuclear plants lead to increased use of nuclear energy. Renewables are the new “fuel of choice”. As renewable generation now makes up over 20% of power generation in the WECC region, power utilities have a need to pursue improved ways to meet their reserves requirements. They need large amounts of power at the multi-megawatt scale to meet the balancing needs of intermittent renewable resources. Once again, natural gas-fired generation presents a strong alternative, in addition to evolving storage options associated with wind and solar power. Despite all the changes, electric power still cannot be called cheap. Energy efficiency, demand-side management and conservation still pay, and consumers still want energy-efficient homes, buildings and equipment. Since buildings in the U.S. and Canada typically last about 100 years, retrofitting them becomes a larger segment of the conservation business. As a result of the benefits from the movement to energy self-sufficiency, the U.S. reaches a tipping point in 2032 as the country becomes self-sufficient in all energy sectors, including transportation fuels. With national energy independence now in place, federal action can now spur more energy development, including an energy superhighway system in certain parts of the country. These DC lines connect resources to major load centers in major cities and urban areas. Cooperation with Canada and Mexico advances to building new interconnections utilizing the smart grid across the WECC region. During these years, some Middle Eastern and North African governments, which had seen internal revolts, have now become working, though fragile, democracies. Individuals who once led these popular political revolutions have now become nationally-elected leaders within their societies. They now focus on trying to raise national standards of living while connecting to the global economy. With the huge natural endowments and capital resources from oil and other natural resources, several of these nations join the World Trade Organization. As a result, their citizens become more discerning consumers of global goods. These changes open up export markets for U.S. goods including many from companies in the WECC region. Bringing people from developing countries into the global economy creates a “new China” in terms of boosting global economic activity. India surpasses China in annual rates of GDP growth, and Indonesia, with its large population, increases its international trading and resource exports. Companies in the WECC region look to these new markets for exports of their clean energy technologies. As 2032 comes to close and the new decade begins, there are four pressing questions facing WECC energy markets in this world:
New scenarios are needed… Directory: Reliability Reliability -> The Private and Social Value of Blackout Risk Reduction Reliability -> Study Request: Opportunity/Variable Cost Dispatch for Solar, Wind, Geothermal and Nuclear Requestor Reliability -> 2017 Annual Progress Report to wecc pacific Gas and Electric Company Waiver of “Significant Transmission Project” Status Download 483.4 Kb. Share with your friends:
|