Document name wecc scenarios


Scenario One - Overview by Key Driver



Download 483.4 Kb.
Page8/30
Date01.02.2017
Size483.4 Kb.
#14851
1   ...   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   ...   30

Scenario One - Overview by Key Driver


Key Driver

Scenario Summary

The evolution of electricity demand in WECC region

The economy begins a slow but steady recovery, and coupled with continued population growth drives a return to electricity demand growth. High fuel prices drive incremental electric vehicle adoption.

The evolution of electricity supply in the WECC region

Renewables struggle to grow in early years, but new investment and coal plant retirements trigger a resurgence of development, renewable generation takes off in last decade with increased deployment of on-site generation and storage.

Innovation in electricity supply technology & distribution systems

Slow and incremental technology innovation in the sector is mirrored in new generation development and operational and communications improvements. Renewables innovations pick up in the later years. Increased technology innovation in gas-fired turbines continues to drive natural gas for new generation.

The course of regional economic growth in the WECC region

Growth in the early years remains slow, and leads the WECC states and provinces to enact legislation to support economic development. The economy picks up in the middle years, followed by growth in the later years.

Changes in the regulation of electric power systems in the WECC region

States and provinces continue to drive energy policy in early years. The WECC region begins to manage the power industry with better optimization of generation and transmission across the Western Interconnection.

Changes in federal regulation affecting electric power industry

The U.S. and Canada establish federal national energy policies to drive toward energy independence. A national energy policy is enacted, including a carbon tax.

Changes in social values related to energy issues

Consumer demand for customer-centric energy independence drives demands for energy-efficiency products, onsite generation and storage, etc. The public and investors begin to implement local community grids with clean generation.

Changes in society’s preferences for environmental & natural resources

Impacts of natural gas extraction cause states to look at increasing RPS standards. Centrist policies support reasonable energy infrastructure development leaning more towards renewables in the later years.

Shifts in national & global financial markets

Stabilization of financial markets following changes in deficit spending in the U.S. and other nations. Global financial markets return to normal credit patterns.

Shifts in the availability & prices of commodity fuels used in the electricity sector

Natural gas remains a clear choice for new dispatchable and replacement of coal fired generation in the early years.



Scenario One

Description

Direction of Change2

Central Station Coal/CCS

Large-scale coal-fired power generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections/with clean carbon sequestration.

-decreasing, no CCS breakthrough

Central Station Gas


Large-scale natural gas-fired generation in the large megawatt scale needing transmission connections

+increasing due to economic growth

Central Station

Solar


Large-scale solar power generation at the megawatt scale needing transmission connections

+increasing with economic growth

Central Station

Wind


Large-scale wind-powered generation in the megawatt scale needing transmission connections

+increasing with economic growth

Central Station Nuclear

Large-scale nuclear-powered generation needing transmission connections

-decreasing with plant retirements

Geothermal Power

Central station geothermal needing transmission connections

~relatively same as historic levels

Hydro Power Expansion/Extension

Continuation or expansion of hydro power generation at existing plants needing transmission connection

~relatively same as historic levels

Solar Power

Small scale (generally roof top photovoltaic systems) that are located at the site of consumption

+increasing with economic growth

Distributed Energy Efficiency

Multiple forms of investment in capital stock which leads to reduced energy consumption or which support load management

+increasing due to economic growth

Distributed Gas

Small-scale natural gas-fired generation serving loads in a local area which may or may not require distribution

+increasing with economic growth

Distributed Power Storage

Use of local sources of electric energy storage from stationary or mobile sources

~relatively same as historic levels

Large Scale Central Storage

Using a range of technologies and needing transmission connections

~relatively same as historic levels


1 The above listing of sources of power supply options can change over time and with varying degrees depending on conditions in the scenario. Conditions in the scenario related to changes in economic growth, fuel prices, technological change, industry regulations (state, provincial, and federal) and public policies will affect the amount of power supplied from the power sources. For this scenario a sense of the direction of change can be indicated as follows:

2 + increasing, ++ significant increases, - decreasing, --significant decreases, and ~ no significant change from historical levels.


Download 483.4 Kb.

Share with your friends:
1   ...   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   ...   30




The database is protected by copyright ©ininet.org 2024
send message

    Main page