The European Union overplayed its hand by supporting the Maidan protests and the ousting of President Yanukovych, bringing to power a pro-European regime of questionable legitimacy. Russia perceived that as a brazen violation of its sphere of influence and a profound attack to its core national interests and requited with adroitness and ruthlessness. Moscow within a few months has managed to consolidate its control over the Crimean Peninsula, which bears paramount strategic importance for its naval power projection in the Mediterranean and the world; and succeeded in sowing chaos and destabilizing the Eastern Ukraine. Astoundingly, Russia managed all that without having to use direct military force, thusly making it exceedingly difficult for Europe and NATO to respond timely and effectively.
Subsequently, the United States of America, the European Union and NATO can actually do little, unless they are willing to withstand greater collateral damage or even risk a direct confrontation with Moscow.
One can contemplate that Russia has achieved its majors objectives in this crisis – thwarting EU’s and NATO’s expansion eastwards for the foreseeable future, securing the naval base of Sevastopol and reminding to Ukraine that one does not simply defy Moscow- and is looking to de-escalate and resolve the crisis and return to the status quo ante, with probably a few concessions.
Newly elected President Petro Poroshenko must ponder upon the very real problems his country is facing in the economic and national unity sectors and make a brave decision. He must either yield to the public demands and continue a destructive and uncertain conflict against the pro-Russian separatists in the East or heed to prudence and reason and pursue to resolve the crisis, bringing all parties on the negotiation table, so that a comprise can be reached.
Day by day, the situation worsens and it is possible that if the crisis is not resolved by the end of summer, it will be rather difficult for either side to make a step back and negotiate for a solution. Prolonging the conflict forces both sides to invest more and more to the goal of total victory, leaving them very little to nothing to lose at the end.
As the economic crisis is not over yet, the European Union, Russia and the US should not be interested in expending themselves in superfluous crises, but they should rather utilize their resources and assets to more pressing and perilous developments around the globe.
Alas, not all international actors habituate themselves in acting rationally or have the courage to take a deep breath and make concessions and occasionally immure themselves to courses of action that can only lead to a dead-end. Likewise, in the Ukrainian crisis there is still time for all parties involved to make the right choices and prevent Ukraine from becoming a black spot on Europe’s map. What they will decide? Only time can tell…
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