Draft Regional Initiative in Support of the Horn of Africa

Annex IX.2.2. Poverty

17. 
    The region is one of the poorest in Africa. The proportion of people living on less than US$1 a day is declining only marginally, while in many countries the absolute number of poor people is increasing. The average population growth rate of about 3.0 percent means the population is doubling every 23 years, compounding efforts to reduce absolute rates. It is a region where the most basic necessities (clean water, food, health care, and education) is not available to much of the population, and where some countries have adult and infant mortality rates that are among the highest in the continent. The HoA’s dependence on climate-sensitive sectors makes it more vulnerable than other regions to climate hazards. Climate-related shocks manifested by extreme weather conditions have destroyed livelihoods and exacerbated the HoA’s food insecurity, resulting in high incidences of underweight and stunted children, widespread hunger, and poor dietary consumption patterns.
    

18. 
    The majority of countries are not on track for meeting the MDG targets, such as reducing maternal and under-five mortality and addressing food insecurity. Most countries will be able to halve the percentage of people without access to safe water by 2015, but in many the baseline is so low that achieving this goal will still leave millions without access to safe water. Disparities in education, health, and other dimensions of human development are often evident, with particular social groups (especially the most marginalized and vulnerable parts of the population) suffering disproportionately from income poverty, inadequate access to quality services, and limited financial protection in case of catastrophic health expenses.
    

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  At an average of $1,511 (2011) per capita, gross national income in Djibouti is higher than in all neighboring states, although the figure masks extreme inequalities. With unemployment estimated at 48 percent, the country has some of Africa’s worst indices of absolute and relative poverty¹³.
  

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  In Somalia the consequences of conflict are clear and devastating: the poverty incidence is 73 percent (61 percent in urban centers and 80 percent in rural areas), with extreme poverty estimated to be 43 percent.
  

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  Eritrea, although it is one of Africa’s fastest growing economies, is one of the least developed countries in the world, with an average annual per capita income of US$403 in 2010. Of its population of about 5.3 million, an estimated two-thirds live in rural areas. Eritrea is ranked 177^th out of 187 countries in the 2011 United Nations Human Development Index, and the Eritrean diaspora is large and increasing. Official statistics on the prevalence of poverty in the country are limited. Some social indicators have improved: falling maternal mortality (from 1,700 deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 380 in 2010), increasing primary school completion (from 17 percent in 1994 to 31 percent in 2013), and higher life expectancy at birth (from 52.5 years in 1995 to 61.6 years in 2011). Some improvements have been achieved through targeted investments in health and education in partnership with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), World Health Organization, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). However, school enrollment rates remain low at 37 percent in 2012, and girls are less likely than boys to enroll in school.
  

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  Ethiopia has substantially reduced poverty in both urban and rural areas during the last decade. Nevertheless, the poverty rate in Ethiopia as measured by international standards remains very high: 39 percent of Ethiopians live on less than US$1.25 a day; 78 percent live on less than US$2 a day; and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Index calculates the poverty rate in Ethiopia to be 90 percent, the second highest after Niger of the 104 developing countries covered. In addition, income inequality has worsened in rural areas in Ethiopia.
  

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  Kenya’s poverty level is estimated to have declined from 47 percent in 2005 to 34-42 percent, but reliable data are unavailable because the last household survey was conducted in 2005-06. While the average Kenyan is healthier and better educated and receives better infrastructure services than a decade ago, a large fraction of the population continues to live in fragile conditions with substandard access to water, sanitation, and energy—particularly in the north and northeast, where poverty levels and vulnerability are highest.
  

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  With a per capita income of US$510 (2013), Uganda remains a poor country. With a poverty rate down to 19.7% by 2013, Uganda is set to meet the first MDG, to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. However, the vast majority of its non-poor people are vulnerable. The lower poverty headcount has yet to translate into gains in other welfare dimensions. There are concerns about uneven progress, with distinct geographic patterns of unequal outcomes in health and education, and uneven access to basic social services.  In 2012, Uganda ranked 161st of 187 countries on the UNDP’s Human Development Index.
  

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  Despite South Sudan’s great resource wealth, over half the population lives below the national poverty line. Inequities in access to services, resources, and opportunities, combined with the politics of exclusion and patronage, ineffective governance, and lack of transparency associated with oil revenue, could present a serious threat to physical and economic security and undermine the institutional transformation needed to secure South Sudan’s stability and legitimacy.¹⁴
  

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  Even after 10 years of an oil boom, Sudan continues to suffer wide and deep swaths of poverty and stark inequality between regions. Although in 2011 Sudan was nominally a lower-middle-income country, this status was mainly due to its highly overvalued exchange rate and large oil production; both fell short in 2012, bringing the country back to low-income-country status. Poverty estimates set the average rate of poverty incidence at 46.5 percent (2009 National Baseline Household Survey), indicating that some 15 million people are poor; and the poverty rate is significantly higher in rural areas (58%) than in urban areas (26%).¹⁵
  

19. 
    In the HoA, poverty is predominantly a rural phenomenon. Across the region around 70% of the population lives in rural areas (except in Djibouti, where 70% of the population lives in urban areas); more than half of those people live on less than US$1 per day, and smallholder farmers work in conditions of static or declining productivity, vulnerability to drought, and environmental degradation. A heavy dependence on low-productivity rain-fed agriculture means that yields are failing to keep pace with population growth.