Annex XX.Knowledge Products

Annex XX.Knowledge Products

94. 
    A knowledge program will provide the foundation for the operational response and further evolution of the HoA Initiative, and will also seek to inform governments and partners on appropriate policy and investment choices. There is a need to add to the existing knowledge base to inform policy and operations choices. The development of knowledge and analytics represents a clear value-added activity under this initiative, and an area of particular comparative advantage for the WBG. The ongoing and proposed knowledge program is as follows:
    

1. 
   A regional extractives industry assessment. The World Bank is investing heavily in analytic work on extractives in Africa to support the development of a country-level lending program and to explore opportunities for regional interventions and synergies, especially in relation to infrastructure. In 2014, Country Economic Memoranda for Kenya, Uganda, and Sudan will each include an appraisal of opportunities and challenges resulting from extractive resources and the mineral sector. A mineral sector assessment has also been conducted in Ethiopia. Policy advice and capacity-building programs are under way in Kenya (IDA-funded) and South Sudan (funded by the State- and Peace-building Fund) and are under preparation in Ethiopia and Uganda with the support of bilateral donors. Early-stage engagement with Somalia has begun. Until recently there was limited opportunity to offer support through regional initiatives, whether linked to transboundary issues or to region wide thematic challenges, but that has begun to change. Given the World Bank’s ongoing and planned work on natural resources in the region, and its unique position to provide impartial advice that draws on regional and global best practice, there is a great opportunity to draw these strands together and provide regional solutions to countries in the HoA. The areas of greatest potential for regional initiatives are those in which some degree of joint dependence would help groups of countries harness the value of their mineral and hydrocarbon resources. The proposed regional assessment would comprise the following:
   

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  A resource endowment assessment, looking at the juxtaposition of nonrenewable and renewable natural resources, demographics, ecology and environment assets, infrastructure, and trade routes and markets, modeled on Growth without Borders.⁴⁹ There is also an opportunity to draw on similar work covering the EAC countries (Kenya and Uganda as well as non-Horn member countries), which is due to be launched soon.
  

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  A petroleum supply chain assessment for the region, to ensure that the regional governments are in a position to take well-informed investment decisions for production development and export in such areas as port capacity and expansion, pipelines, refineries, road and rail corridors, energy and water requirements, input and labor supply opportunities, and trade logistics and customs preparedness. Some elements of this assessment have already been undertaken—for example, by the consortium evaluating the exploitation and export of Uganda’s oil—but there is a need to draw together the various strands.
  

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  A policy framework assessment that evaluates the state of policy preparedness of the countries in the region to seize the opportunities presented by extractive resources and the points of policy discontinuity/conflict, including political economy underpinnings. This work would draw in part on analytic work recently launched by the Trade and Competitiveness Global Practice on the political economy of regional integration.
  

2. 
   A regional forced displacement analysis. The Global Program on Forced Displacement, in collaboration with UNHCR, will carry out a regional study on displacement in the Horn of Africa (similar studies have been or are being carried out in the Sahel and Great Lakes regions). The study will profile displacement in the region, analyze displacement dynamics, and propose policy options and operational priorities for regional assistance to displaced populations, returnees, and their host communities. The findings could usefully inform the Bank’s policy dialogue, governments’ policies on issues of displacement and its consequences for vulnerability and security, and the design of future regional operations addressing these issues.
   

3. 
   A regional fragility assessment. This assessment was undertaken to build a common understanding of the exact nature and magnitude of regional drivers of fragility, the elements of resilience, and the region’s stability-development nexus. It will inform the development of transformational regional interventions that address and/or accommodate drivers of fragility/instability, and will provide guidance on implementation and monitoring. (The completed assessment is attached as Annex IV.)
   

4. 
   A borderlands diagnostic. The diagnostic’s aim is to recommend an approach that supports cross-border development through local economic integration, social capital building, and trade as a catalyst for reducing tension and making development interventions at the local level. The objective of the Bank’s involvement would be to improve the socioeconomic conditions of populations on all sides of the border. The starting point of the study would be the African Union’s Border Programme, which is based on three pillars: (i) cooperation and coordination, (ii) capacity building, and (iii) community involvement.
   

5. 
   A regional groundwater assessment. The Horn of Africa has high climate variability, and water scarcity constrains development in the region. Around 80 percent of the HoA is arid or semi-arid, with limited precipitation, highly variable climate, high evaporation rates, and low levels of water use. The assessment will examine the potential for developing and managing the region’s transboundary aquifers. The Bank’s ongoing work on the Nile Basin illustrates potential development opportunities through cooperative management of water resources. There are no known regional initiatives to address the joint management and development of some of the transboundary aquifer systems in the HoA, and this work would be a key contribution to enhancing resilience and conflict mitigation.