Draft regulation Impact Statement for Underrun Protection a draft statement inviting discussion and comments from parties affected by the proposed heavy commercial vehicle safety initiative January 2007 Report Documentation Page



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(b). Fleet registration approximation

Note: this method was used to provide a sensitivity comparison to the method above.



  • For a given year, calculate the proportion of vehicles in the fleet fitted with devices, assuming they are only fitted to new vehicles (the figures only apply to rigid or articulated trucks).

  • For a given year, multiply the overall cost of installing devices with the calculated proportion of the fleet. Adjust the cost using Present Values.

  • For a given year, multiply the possible overall benefit from installing devices with the calculated proportion of the fleet. Adjust the benefit using Present Values.

  • For a given year, calculate the cumulative Net Present Values of the benefits and costs.

  • For a given year calculate the cumulative Benefit-Cost Ratio.




Scenario B1 Alternative Method - rigid vehicles

Best Case 4% Discount

rate








































Year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Number of fleet fitted with UP

(,000)


0.0

9.7

19.4

29.1

38.8

48.5

58.2

67.9

77.6

87.3

97.0

106.7

116.4

Percentage of fleet fitted with UP

(%)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%











































Front UP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Benefits from percentage of fleet

fitted with UP ($m)



0.0

1.8

3.6

5.3

7.1

8.9

10.7

12.4

14.2

16.0

17.8

19.5

21.3

Present Value (PV) of the Benefit

0.0

1.7

3.3

4.7

6.1

7.3

8.4

9.4

10.4

11.2

12.0

12.7

13.3

Cumulative PV of the Benefit

0.0

1.7

5.0

9.7

15.8

23.1

31.5

41.0

51.3

62.6

74.6

87.2

100.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Installation cost of UP for new

vehicles ($m)



4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

Present Value (PV) of the Cost

4.3

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

Cumulative PV of the Cost

4.3

8.4

12.3

16.1

19.8

23.3

26.6

29.9

33.0

36.0

38.9

41.6

44.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Net Present Value (NPV)

-4.3

-6.7

-7.3

-6.4

-4.0

-0.2

4.9

11.1

18.3

26.6

35.7

45.6

56.2

Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3











































Side UP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Benefits from percentage of fleet

fitted with UP ($m)



0.0

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.1

4.5

Present Value (PV) of the Benefit

0.0

0.4

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.8

Cumulative PV of the Benefit

0.0

0.4

1.1

2.1

3.3

4.9

6.7

8.7

10.9

13.2

15.8

18.5

21.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Installation cost of UP for new

vehicles ($m)



8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.2

Present Value (PV) of the Cost

8.2

7.9

7.6

7.3

7.0

6.7

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.5

5.3

5.1

Cumulative PV of the Cost

8.2

16.1

23.7

31.0

38.0

44.8

51.2

57.5

63.5

69.2

74.8

80.1

85.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Net Present Value (NPV)

-8.2

-15.7

-22.6

-28.9

-34.7

-39.9

-44.6

-48.8

-52.6

-56.0

-59.0

-61.7

-64.0

Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2











































Rear UP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Benefits from percentage of fleet

fitted with UP ($m)



0.0

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.7

Present Value (PV) of the Benefit

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Cumulative PV of the Benefit

0.0

0.2

0.6

1.2

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.3

6.6

8.0

9.6

11.2

12.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Installation cost of UP for new

vehicles ($m)



7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

Present Value (PV) of the Cost

7.5

7.2

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.2

5.9

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.1

4.9

4.7

Cumulative PV of the Cost

7.5

14.7

21.6

28.3

34.7

40.9

46.8

52.5

58.0

63.2

68.3

73.2

77.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




 

 

Net Present Value (NPV)

-7.5

-14.5

-21.0

-27.1

-32.7

-37.9

-42.8

-47.2

-51.4

-55.2

-58.7

-62.0

-65.0

Benefit/Cost Ratio (BCR)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2


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