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AT: Modeling Adv.—AT: Soft Power (1/3)
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AT: Modeling Adv.—AT: Soft Power (1/3)Soft power theory is wrong—history and trends prove Niaz, ’10 [Ilhan Niaz, Faculty member of the Department of History at the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, “The mirage of soft power in a globalised world,” DAWN.com, 1/10/10, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/encounter/the-mirage-of-soft-power-in-a-globalised-world-010.] SOFT power theorists argue that in a globalised world the powers of persuasion are as important as, if not more important than, the persuasiveness of power. The former includes a country’s cultural appeal, international marketability, mass media projection and civilisational prestige. Combined, these different aspects of soft power can win hearts and minds and thus facilitate the attainment of national interests. The latter includes the more traditional combination of military assets, intelligence resources, raw economic muscle, administrative capacity and political will. These old-fashioned manifestations of hard power are, it is proclaimed, no longer as relevant as soft power. Satellite television channels can trump ballistic missiles. The global appeal of curry in a hurry beats hard power projection through aircraft carriers and Harriers. One thing that soft power is a testament to is the ability of the human race to delude itself. It is remarkable that a hypothesis as intellectually bogus and empirically fragile should be projected as a legitimate new way of looking at old problems. The soft power world view is substantially invalidated by historical experience, events and trends of the contemporary era (1990-present) and future possibilities arising from historical experience and the dynamics of contemporary issues. Soft power can’t solve the impacts—Doesn’t induce global cooperation Niaz, ’10 [Ilhan Niaz, Faculty member of the Department of History at the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, “The mirage of soft power in a globalised world,” DAWN.com, 1/10/10, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/encounter/the-mirage-of-soft-power-in-a-globalised-world-010.] The beginning of a new decade furnishes an opportunity to reflect on what has been and on what may be. Looking towards the future, soft power rhetoric is set to confront some very hard realities. There are simply too many people on this planet for the majority of them to be sustained at a standard of living comparable to the industrial democracies. Depletion of natural resources is likely to impose harsh limits on economic and population growth. The failure to hammer out a real compromise at the 2009 Copenhagen summit has left everybody more vulnerable to climate change. Large parts of the world, including South Asia, are experiencing administrative breakdown and gross socioeconomic inequities. Other parts of the world are likely to spend the next generation coping with the fallout of US imperial misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. On an overpopulated, resource-starved, economically imbalanced, and environmentally degraded planet, soft power will be utterly meaningless. Those powers that possess the requisite ruthlessness, military capability, material superiority, effective administration and political will, are likely to prevail. Those powers that are deficient on these and other indices of hard power are likely to perish or be marginalised. The hard power outlook for South Asia is bleak and being lulled into smug complacency by soft-power mantras will only serve to completely compromise the region’s future. AT: Modeling Adv.—AT: Soft Power (2/3)Alt causes to soft power decline-- A. inevitable hard power failure Niaz, ’10 [Ilhan Niaz, Faculty member of the Department of History at the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, “The mirage of soft power in a globalised world,” DAWN.com, 1/10/10, http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/encounter/the-mirage-of-soft-power-in-a-globalised-world-010.] With US hard power in decline following a decade of imperial misadventures, flawed domestic policies and strategic overextension, there is little doubt that Washington’s ability to influence the global village is also going to decrease. But that doesn’t mean that people will stop wearing jeans or listening to rap music or eating at Pizza Hut. Soft power just doesn’t matter strategically or diplomatically unless backed by hard power. B. Torture Pasha 10 [Zain, originally published in The Cornell International Affairs Review, vol. III, no. 2, Spring 2010 [http://triplehelixblog.com/2010/05/torturing-america-securing-the-american-interest/] Torturing America: Securing the American Interest/ May 4] Finally, U.S. use of torture undermines U.S. soft power leadership because it diminishes international opinion about the U.S.29 To be sure, a January 2007 World Public Opinion Poll of 26,000 people across 25 countries revealed that 67% of respondents disapproved of the way in which the U.S. treated Guantanamo Bay detainees and 49% of respondents (the largest plurality) felt the U.S. had an overall negative impact on the world.30 The implications of this are significant. For one thing, the U.S. relies on its soft power to gain the support of nations like Germany and Malaysia in the fight against terrorism. If public sentiment about the U.S. among the citizens of key U.S. allies is sufficiently negative, the U.S. may not be able to cooperate with those allies to confront a national security threat. For example, the U.S. may not be able to get permission to bomb an al-Qaeda terrorist cell in Malaysia, or it may not receive German political and military support in starting a campaign against terrorist groups. Moreover, soft power losses become self-perpetuating, as negative international opinion of the U.S. elicits isolationist responses from U.S. citizens that subsequently embolden U.S. enemies like al-Qaeda. Finally, winning the War on Terror necessitates moderate Muslim leadership in the Islamic world. For this, U.S. soft power diplomacy is crucial as it creates linkages between the U.S. and moderate Muslims that can subvert the influence of Muslim extremists.31 Indeed, without the support of our allies and those living in the Middle East, the U.S. will have a hard time winning the War on Terrorism.32 C. Guantanamo Farer 10 [Tom, Dean of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver [http://www.ony.unu.edu/events/Obama%20and%20the%20world_Event%20report.pdf] Obama and the World: One Year Later/ March 30] Finally, a UNICRI representative criticized the Obama administration’s lack of action in closing Guantanamo. Dean Farer responded that the president had to consider the intensity of the domestic political opposition he would encounter. Moreover, the Guantanamo issue, a very important symbol of soft power, is closely related to matters such as indefinite detention without trial and trial by special military tribunal. Further issues arose when Obama was briefed about the legal and political complexities of convicting dangerous individuals for whom evidence was secured through forms of intelligence that cannot be disclosed. 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