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- Obama will push CTBT after the election --- prevents a South Asian arms race
- CTBT – AT: Obama Won’t Push
Ext – Obama Key to CTBTObama will pass CTBT if reelected --- new NRC report provides momentumPifer, 3/30/2012 (Steven – senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution, New Support for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, p. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0330_nuclear_pifer.aspx) In 1996, the United States became the first country to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which would ban all nuclear explosions. The Senate, however, failed to ratify the treaty in 1999. If President Obama is reelected, he may ask the Senate to consider it again. On March 30, the National Research Council released a study that bolsters the case for ratification. Two concerns underlay the Senate vote not to ratify the treaty in 1999: the reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent absent testing, and the U.S. ability to verify that other states observed the test ban. The National Research Council report addresses both issues. Ellen Williams, who chaired the committee that prepared the report, stated that the United States “has technical capabilities to maintain safe, reliable nuclear weapons into the foreseeable future without the need for underground weapons testing.” This results from the Stockpile Stewardship Program, which was launched in the 1990s to maintain the deterrent without testing. That program has produced significant knowledge about the reliability, sustainability and operation of U.S. nuclear weapons, including yielding information that U.S. scientists never discovered in 47 years of tests. For example, we now know that the nuclear “pits”—the plutonium packages that are the heart of modern U.S. nuclear weapons—can last 85-100 years, far longer than originally believed. The National Research Council study also notes that the techniques for monitoring a comprehensive test ban have improved dramatically over the past decade and can reliably detect nuclear explosions with yields well below one kiloton—the equivalent of one thousand tons of TNT—and in some cases much smaller. In addition to U.S. national means, the Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization has brought on line more than 80 percent of its planned international monitoring system, which will ultimately consist of 337 facilities worldwide. When the North Koreans tested a small nuclear device in 2006, 61 international monitoring stations reported the event. The report adds that, while there may be ways to “hide” a very small nuclear test, such test scenarios involve serious costs and practical difficulties, might nevertheless be detected, and would not require that the United States resume nuclear testing. Obama will push CTBT after the election --- prevents a South Asian arms raceReif, 4/9/2012 (Kingston – director of nuclear nonproliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, The Case for the CTBT: Stronger Than Ever, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, p. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/kingston-reif/the-case-the-ctbt-stronger-ever) As of March 2012, 157 countries have ratified the CTBT. However, the treaty will not enter into force until 44 states that have been deemed "nuclear capable" have also ratified it -- including China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United States. But a move forward by the United States would establish the leadership needed to bring other countries along. If nothing else, China has indicated that it will ratify if the United States does. This would further strengthen the global norm against nuclear testing and encourage other holdouts, such as India and Pakistan, to ratify, reducing the possibility of a dangerous arms race in South Asia. After the longer-than-anticipated effort to win Senate approval of New START, the administration postponed plans to seek a vote on the CTBT in its first term. Instead, the White House has begun a cautious campaign to engage with the Senate on the treaty in preparation for a possible Senate vote in Obama's second term (should he win reelection). A critical piece of this outreach has been to encourage senators to carefully examine the remarkable improvements in America's ability to maintain the arsenal (via the stockpile-stewardship program) and to detect nuclear testing. In order to assist senators, the administration commissioned both the NAS report and a classified National Intelligence Estimate on the US ability to verify compliance with the treaty. CTBT – AT: Obama Won’t PushIt’s Obama’s priorityDeaton, 9/19/2011 (Paul – Daily Kos member, On the 15th Anniversary of the CTBT, Daily Kos, p. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/09/19/1018266/-On-the-15th-Anniversary-of-the-CTBT) During his 2009 speech in Prague, President Obama said ratification of the CTBT would be a priority for his administration. Others in the administration indicate that this continues to be the case. Despite some significant action on the administration’s arms control agenda, including entry into force of the New START Treaty ratified by the United States Senate last December, few now believe the President will take up CTBT ratification with the Senate before the 2012 election. If President Obama fails to win re-election, the treaty seems unlikely to be ratified for a long time, if ever. It is not hard to read the tea leaves on this important issue. Despite the apparent hesitancy, the State Department has begun a conversation on the CTBT as part of its discussion about the administration’s arms control agenda with members and staff on the hill. Assistant Secretary of the State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, Rose Gottemoeller described the exchange of information to the Arms Control Wonk, “So it’s really like an information campaign and a discussion,” said Gottemoeller. “The reason I emphasize the discussion aspect of it is that clearly this is a debate, and it’s not like one side telling the other, and the other side is just in the ‘receive’ mode. But it is more like a true discussion and debate, and I think that’s the way people are going to come to their decisions about the treaty, through that process of very serious discussion and debate, and seeing the facts, and coming to understand them.” Gottemoeller indicated there was no deadline for ratification. The State Department has laid out the case for ratification in four points. The CTBT helps restrain further nuclear weapons proliferation, ratification of the CTBT is part of an integrated nuclear security strategy, the CTBT can be verified and the United States does not need to conduct nuclear tests. A simple and straightforward list, but for those of us advocating for ratification of CTBT, it is the same list we had when Democrats held 60 senate seats and ratification seemed assured. The trouble with time is it wears on a person and priorities change. If we take President Obama and the State Department at their word, ratification of the CTBT remains a priority on the administration’s arms control agenda. Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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