Election Disadvantage
Generic – Talking Points 2NC
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Generic – Talking Points 2NCPassing transportation spending takes the jobs agenda strategy off the table and gives the GOP the edge.McBee Strategic Insight, 2/3/2012 (Washington Research: The McBee 2012 Preview – Transportation Infrastructure Investment: “The Responsibility of Governing,” p. 2-4) With the 2012 elections looming and a long-term reauthorization of transportation infrastructure programs long overdue, House Republicans are mounting a full-court press on the issue to demonstrate a positive agenda to voters that is "for" something with job-creation potential, instead of simply saying "no" to President Obama's proposals. There are few spending priorities other than roads, bridges, airports that enjoy bipartisan backing as a core public good (rail and mass transit aren't quite as lucky, as we'll describe below), yet transportation spending made up a grand total of 2.6% of the federal budget in the fiscal year that ended September 30. That share has been headed downwards since 3% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2003, and by FY 2021 will be only 2% of federal spending. By comparison, national defense took up 19.7% of the budget in FY 2011, while Social Security and Medicare together accounted for over two-thirds of all FY 2011 spending. To be fair, three-fourths of all infrastructure spending occurs at the state and local level. But all infrastructure spending put together, including for waterways and sewers, encompassed only 2.4% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product in FY 2007, the latest year for which the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has comprehensive data. In that same year Medicare and Social Security alone totaled 7.3% of GDP. And infrastructure's slice of the pie is only getting smaller as entitlement programs and net interest payments on the $15 trillion U.S. debt keep rising and crowding out all other spending. Meanwhile global economic rivals like China, India, and the European Union continue to put a much greater share of their resources into infrastructure investment. While other factors are clearly at work than commitment to infrastructure, at least in China and India GDP growth is expected to significantly outpace that of the U.S. over the next couple of years, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecast. That fact is not lost on members of either party, who do not want to preside over the U.S. losing "great power" status. On some levels, the tide of support for infrastructure may be turning. A bipartisan House-Senate agreement on Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) funding appears set to clear Congress next week and be signed into law. The measure keeps spending roughly flat at $16 billion a year for the next four years – avoiding the steep cuts envisioned by GOP conservatives for most domestic programs. Republicans and Democrats put aside their differences, for instance on a controversial labor matter, in order to move the FAA bill forward – something that could not have been foreseen just a month or so ago when Congress was in the throes of utter gridlock over routine extensions of expiring legislation. Congress is now embarking on a major push to pass a long-term ground transportation funding bill to provide some stability in the construction sector and create potentially millions of jobs ($1 billion in highway spending = 27,800 jobs created, according to the Federal Highway Administration). But despite success on the FAA measure, we think the odds are greatest that the same old partisan fights – namely over how to pay for it – will stymie action on a long-term solution to surface transportation financing until 2013 at the earliest (more on this below). Section 2: Background - Shades of 1998/2005? The five-year surface transportation bill under consideration in several House committees this week represents a departure from Tea Party orthodoxy as its highway program funding would roughly keep pace with inflation, rising from $39.9 billion in FY 2012 to $43.2 billion in FY 2016. That is a major shift and about $30 billion more than the six-year outline House Republicans unveiled last summer that would have cut highway spending by some 33% from current levels, by limiting the program's funding to what the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) is taking in from tax revenues and interest. The measure flat-funds transit programs at roughly $10.5 billion annually. The Senate is working on a two-year funding bill with slightly higher funding authorizations in its two years, spending a little more on highways in FY 2012 ($42.3 billion) and FY13 ($43 billion), and about the same on transit. House Republicans do not believe two years is adequate to provide certainty for the highway program, however, and generally do not like to be dictated to by the Senate. The House position also enjoys backing from major business and road-construction industry groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and American Road & Transportation Builders Association, though an odd coalition of conservative groups including the Club for Growth as well as the labor and environmental community also have concerns. • Two important points about the House GOP bill: - Transit privatization/removal of funding stream. The measure eliminates the dedicated funding source – HTF tax revenues – for mass transit, instead making it entirely subject to general fund appropriations with a one-time $40 billion cash infusion to supplement existing appropriations of about $2.1 billion a year. The move will provide more dedicated resources for highway projects while making transit compete for money against popular "discretionary" programs like defense and veterans' medical services – a powerful incentive to turn transit operations over to the private sector, something House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Chairman John Mica (R-FL) has long advocated. To drive home the point, Mica included language forcing transit agencies to contract out operations to private companies in order to obtain their maximum share of federal funds. This has sparked considerable concern among labor unions due to the potential for private firms running transit operations to hire non-union labor. hiring non-union labor. Also, importantly, all transit programs would now be subject to the "sequestration" process, or across-the-board cuts to defense and domestic spending set to occur in 2013, while the highway program would be largely protected given its own dedicated financing source. Presently only about one-fifth of transit funding would be subject to sequestration. - Amtrak funding slashed. Mica's bill cuts Amtrak's operating budget by 25% over the next two years and would privatize food and beverage operations. Senate Democrats from Northeast Corridor states and labor unions are strongly opposed. •These provisions demonstrate the antipathy among conservatives towards spending taxpayer dollars on mass transit and rail projects – which many consider only of use in urban centers they don't represent. That's not a uniform view among Republicans, however, although rail/transit backers in the GOP have dwindled as more moderate members have lost re-election or retired. This will be a bone of contention if the House and Senate ever get to a conference committee to hammer out differences. Passing a multi-year ground transportation funding bill, something Republicans achieved in 1998 and 2005 when they controlled Congress, would take away an issue that Obama and the Democrats have been hammering them on. It would also demonstrate to voters that the GOP is capable of governing, a departure from the dysfunction-marred view of House Republicans held by the public after last year's payroll tax cut debacle. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) reminded his troops of the mantle of leadership in a closeddoor meeting this week: "Whether we like it or not, the reality is that dealing with our nation's crumbling infrastructure is part of the responsibility of governing. Infrastructure is vital to our economy," Boehner told the House Republican Conference on Wednesday, according to remarks provided by his office. 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