Endi 2011 / Daniel/Jason/Kevin/Marc/MiHe/Parth/Simrun



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B – Satellites on Brink


Joint Polar Satellite System on the chopping block

USA Today 6/17(Bart Jansen, “Looming gap in weather satellites threatens forecasting,” June 17, 2011, http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2011-06-17-weather-satellite-budget-cuts_n.htm) mihe

Congressional budget cutting will delay the launch of a key weather satellite and hinder tracking of killer hurricanes, tornadoes and other severe weather, officials warn. With more budget cuts looming, further delays are possible — something President Barack Obama alluded to this week. In an interview with NBC's "Today" show Tuesday, the president acknowledged the need to reduce federal debt but said "really important" priorities include ensuring "government functions like food safety or weather satellites are still up there." The satellite at stake is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Joint Polar Satellite System. But reduced federal spending threatens all domestic programs. Congress cut spending $38.5 billion in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30. House Republicans propose to cut another $30 billion next year. Obama has proposed $5.5 billion for NOAA in the fiscal year starting Oct. 1, including a $688 million boost for the polar satellite. But the agency received $4.6 billion this year — $947 million less than requested — and lawmakers warned that a hefty increase was unlikely. The House Appropriations subcommittee is to vote on its budget July 7. "The fiscal crisis facing the nation is real and will require a level of austerity that goes beyond the present budget," said Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va., who heads the panel. Another appropriator, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said she would fight Republicans for a funding freeze — rather than cuts — to avoid harming programs such as weather satellites. "There are serious cuts being implemented now," Landrieu said. "This senator from Louisiana is willing to try to balance the budget, but I am not willing to do any more reductions without revenues being put on the table."



Changes to NOAA’s current budget would take spending from polar satellites – leads to Snowmageddon and economic problems

NPR 6/17 – (Jon Hamilton, “Blind Eye in the Sky: Weather Satellites Lose Funding,” June 17, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/06/17/137251742/blind-eye-in-the-sky-weather-satellites-lose-funding?ps=cprs) mihe

Government officials are forecasting a turbulent future for the nation's weather satellite program. Federal budget cuts are threatening to leave the U.S. without some critical satellites, the officials say, and that could mean less accurate warnings about events like tornadoes and blizzards. In particular, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are concerned about satellites that orbit over the earth's poles rather than remaining over a fixed spot along the equator. These satellites are "the backbone" of any forecast beyond a couple of days, says Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction, and NOAA's deputy administrator. It was data from polar satellites that alerted forecasters to the risk of tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi back in April, Sullivan says. "With the polar satellites currently in place we were able to give those communities five days' heads up," she says. But that level of precision could diminish in the next few years, Sullivan says. One important NOAA satellite in a polar orbit will reach the end of its expected life around 2016. And its replacement has been delayed by a continuing resolution passed by Congress that limits the agency's ability to pursue its new Joint Polar Satellite System. Sullivan says that means there could be more than a year when the nation is lacking a crucial eye in the sky. "If we go blind, if there actually is a gap between the last satellite and this, it certainly will erode the reliability and accuracy of our forecasts," she says. To find out how bad the problem might be, the National Weather Service re-examined one of its great forecasting successes: the 2010 blizzard known as "Snowmageddon." The agency wanted to know what would happen if a similar blizzard arrived several years from now, when several satellites are likely to be out of commission, says National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes. "We were quite surprised at the finding that we would underestimate the amount of snowfall the Eastern Seaboard had, specifically in the Washington, D.C., area, by a factor of 2," Hayes says. In other words, areas where forecasts called for 15 inches would actually get 30 inches. Budget problems aren't the only reason NOAA's next polar satellite is behind schedule. A previous version of the program was scrapped, and NOAA has had trouble getting some of the new satellite's cutting-edge technology finished on time. But Hayes says this sort of technology is precisely what's made forecasting more accurate with each new generation of satellites. NASA officials are also concerned about the next generation of weather satellites. The agency will play an important role in building them and also supplements data from NOAA weather satellites with data from its own research satellites. "It used to be that weather was just something that happened," says Michael Freilich, who directs the earth science division at NASA. Now, he says, people and businesses make specific plans based on what forecasters say. "When they say that it's going to be hot and sunny, companies make economic decisions," he says. For example, he says, utilities decide how much electricity they need to produce, airlines decide whether to cancel flights, schools decide whether to close, and insurance companies anticipate damage claims from things like hurricanes and hailstorms. Other nations also fly polar satellites, and that can help fill the gap when U.S. units fail, officials say. But it's not enough, they say. "The United States, by virtue of our size, the mountains, the oceans on three sides, we have the widest array and greatest frequency of weather phenomena and severe weather phenomena of any country on the planet," Sullivan says. Some tweaks to NOAA's current budget could minimize delays to the polar satellite program, she says. Whether the agency is allowed to do that is up to Congress, which will also decide what happens to spending on polar satellites next year.

Critical monitoring satellites on the chopping block

Gillis 4/14/11-(Justin Gillis staff writer at New York times “Weather satellites on the chopping Block”

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/weather-satellites-on-the-chopping-block/) JC



As my colleagues Eric Lichtblau, Ron Nixon and I report in summary form in Thursday morning’s paper, the budget deal moving through Capitol Hill slashes funds that the Obama administration requested for a satellite program considered vital for the nation’s weather forecasting. That raises the prospect of less accurate forecasts and other problems, some of them potentially life-threatening, starting in 2016. Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, warned at a Senate hearing on Wednesday that the cutbacks would probably lead to a serious gap in satellite data, undermining National Weather Service forecasts. Research by her agency suggests that without the type of capability that the proposed satellites were expected to provide, the weather service might fumble forecasts of future events similar to the huge snowstorms that hit Washington and New York the last two winters. “It’s a big risk,” said Daniel Sobien, head of the union that represents government weather forecasters. Forecasters would still have access to data from satellites not affected by the cutbacks, but those would offer less detailed coverage of the country, which is why the weather forecasts would become less accurate. The potential coverage gap would be limited to 18 months or so — but only if Congress agreed to restore as much as $1 billion in funds needed for the satellite program in the budget year that begins in October. Many people on Capitol Hill, including some Republicans, support doing that, but given the pressures on the budget and the political tensions over federal spending, that is by no means a certainty. So the situation raises the prospect of a deterioration in weather forecasts that might last for years. Dr. Lubchenco warned that even if Congress restarted the program, the government would probably wind up spending $3 or $4 for every dollar saved by halting it this year. “We have to cancel the contracts — we have to let people go,” she said. “These are very sophisticated, skilled workers. Then you need to bring the programs back up.” Satellites and other government-run instruments provide virtually all weather data used to make forecasts in the United States, including those on television, radio and in newspapers. Like all satellites, weather satellites wear out and have to be replaced regularly. Planning and building them takes years, and any hiccup in that program means the government can lose access to vital data a few years down the road. A coverage gap is not an absolute certainty; it will depend on how quickly the satellites that are already in the sky in 2016 wear out. But with the cutback, Dr. Lubchenco said, a gap will become pretty likely. The program that is being cut is an attempt by the Obama administration to clean up a decadelong mess in putting new weather satellites into orbit. A plan by the Clinton and Bush administrations to combine military and civilian weather satellites ended in failure after cost overruns and mismanagement, exasperating Democrats and Republicans in Congress. The Obama administration’s recovery efforts have won support in principle on both sides of the aisle, but winning money has been far harder in a year when few programs are being spared from cutbacks. It’s not just essential weather information that is at risk, Dr. Lubchenco said in testimony on Wednesday. The weather satellites pick up emergency beacons used by wilderness hikers, boaters and others who venture into remote areas: nearly 300 people were rescued this way in 2010 alone. A gap in satellite coverage could mean that it would take hours longer for rescuers to find people who get into trouble. In some cases, that time interval could be the difference between life and death. “That data gap will have very serious consequences to our ability to do severe-storm warnings, long-term forecasts and search and rescue,” Dr. Lubchenco said.


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