Environment improving – reject alarmist scenarios
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- Amazon forest resilient no impact atleast for 65 million years
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AmazonresilientThe Amazon forest is resilient – past extinction claims are false – has evolving mechanisms that checkBudiansky 93 (Stephan Budiansky, December 5th, 1983, US News, “The Doomsday Myths – By exaggerating environmental dangers, activists have undermined their credibility and triggered an anti-environment backlash,” http://www.usnews.com/usnews/culture/articles/931213/archive_016280_print.htm, date accessed 7/03/2013, WOOJAE) Similarly, the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil have been cut to about 12 percent of their original size, yet a team of Brazilian zoologists that combed the forests recently could not confirm a single case of extinction. Instead, they rediscovered several birds and six species of butterfly considered extinct 20 years ago. And a survey by the Flora Meso-Americana project found increased abundance of some species considered threatened. "Despite extensive inquiries, we have been unable to obtain conclusive evidence to support the suggestion that massive extinctions have taken place in recent times," writes Vernon Heywood, a former chief scientist of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, which works with governments to protect endangered species and habitats. Natural resilience. Biologists offer several explanations for such "unreasonable" tenacity of species. Many tropical species are widely dispersed, so the loss of one chunk of a forest does not doom them to extinction. Moreover, ecosystems like the Brazilian Atlantic forests may be naturally resilient, having evolved mechanisms to cope with the severe natural upheavals that are endemic to a mountainous climate subject to heavy rains and sudden cold spells. Ext. resilientTheory proves Amazon is resilient and has been for 55 million yearsMaslin et al 12’ Environmental Change Research Centre (Virginia J. Ettwein Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London. Christopher Organic Geochemistry Unit, Bristol Biogeochemistry Research Centre, School of Chemistry. James Department of Geographical and Earth Sciences. “Amazon Fan biomarker evidence against the Pleistocene rainforest refuge hypothesis?” 26 MAR 2012 Journal of Quaternary Science Volume 27, Issue 5, pages 451–460. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.1567/full) Indeed, persistent forest cover within the Amazon Basin despite cold-stage aridity is consistent with coupled climate–vegetation model results (e.g. Cowling et al., 2001, 2004; Cowling, 1999, 2004; Prentice et al., 2004) as the cooler temperatures mitigate the detrimental effects of the low carbon dioxide and aridity via reduced evapotranspiration and photorespiratory carbon loss in C3 plants (Cowling et al., 2001), allowing C3 vegetation to outcompete C4 species during glacial periods. Farrera et al. (1999) and Bendle et al. (2010) have shown temperatures to be at least 5°C lower during the last glacial period in the Amazon lowland, supporting this proposed biological response. This allows us to reject the ephemeral view of the Amazon rainforest and confirms the theory that the Amazon rainforest is resilient and has adapted to past climate change and has been a dominant feature of the Earth climate system for at least the last 55 million years (Maslin et al., 2005). Amazon forest resilient no impact atleast for 65 million yearsMaslin et al. 2005’ Environmental Change Research Centre (Yadvinder School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford. Oliver Earth and Biosphere Institute, School of Geography. Sharon Department of Geography, University of Toronto.” New views on an old forest: assessing the longevity, resilience and future of the Amazon rainforest” http://content.ebscohost.com/pdf17_20/pdf/2005/D8Z/01Dec05/19472860.pdf?T=P&P=AN&K=19472860&S=R&D=aph&EbscoContent=dGJyMNXb4kSeprE4yOvqOLCmr0uep7JSr6e4SbeWxWXS&ContentCustomer=dGJyMPGut1C0r7BPuePfgeyx44Dt6fIA) Palaeo-climate and -ecological records suggest that the Amazon rainforest originated in the late Cretaceous and has been a permanent feature of South America for at least the last 55 million years. The geological record is a testament to the lon- gevity and resilience of the Amazon rainforest. However, there is extreme concern about the future of the Amazon rainforest, both from the threat of deforestation and from climatic and atmospheric change (e.g. Cramer et al. 2004; Laurance 2004; Lewis et al. 2004). For example, the most extreme climate/vegetation models suggest the possible loss of half the Amazon rainforest in the next 50 years (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2000 2004; Cowling et al. 2004). We are entering a non-analogue future. Figure 10 shows the compression of the mega- thermal moist forests in response to global cooling. However, the future will clearly not simply involve a transition to warmer Miocene-type climates. This is because there are significant differences to past climates: 1 Despite the predicted global warming, the Pole– Equator temperature gradients are still large, and will remain relatively large this century, prevent- ing a large shift of the frost-free zones to higher latitudes.2 The speed of global warming would not allow for the large-scale movement of rainforests across the arid subtropical latitudes. 3 Even if migration of rainforest to the convergence rainfall zone were possible, the mid-latitudes are already dominated by human activities such as farming.
resilient – at: climate changeThe Amazon is resilient to climate change – AND – CO2 is good – increases forest growth and outweighs the negative effects of climate change – studies proveDoyle 13 (Alister Doyle, February 6th, 2013, Reuters, “Amazon forest more resilient to climate change than feared – study,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-climate-amazon-idUSBRE91510O20130206, date accessed 7/03/13, WOOJAE) (Reuters) - The Amazon rainforest is less vulnerable to die off because of global warming than widely believed because the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide also acts as an airborne fertilizer, a study showed on Wednesday. The boost to growth from CO2, the main gas from burning fossil fuels blamed for causing climate change, was likely to exceed damaging effects of rising temperatures this century such as drought, it said. "I am no longer so worried about a catastrophic die-back due to CO2-induced climate change," Professor Peter Cox of the University of Exeter in England told Reuters of the study he led in the journal Nature. "In that sense it's good news." Cox was also the main author of a much-quoted study in 2000 that projected that the Amazon rainforest might dry out from about 2050 and die off because of warming. Others have since suggested fires could transform much the forest into savannah. Plants soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and use it as an ingredient to grow leaves, branches and roots. Stored carbon gets released back to the atmosphere when plants rot or are burnt. A retreat of the Amazon forests, releasing vast stores of carbon, could in turn aggravate global warming that is projected to cause more floods, more powerful storms and raise world sea levels by melting ice sheets. "CO2 fertilization will beat the negative effect of climate change so that forests will continue to accumulate carbon throughout the 21st century," Cox said of the findings with other British-based researchers. ROOT AND BRANCH The scientists said the study was a step forward because it used models comparing forest growth with variations in the rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It estimated that the damaging effects of warming would cause the release of 53 billion tons of carbon stored in lands throughout the tropics, much of it in the Amazon, for every single degree Celsius (1.8F) of temperature rise. The benefits of CO2 fertilization exceeded those losses in most scenarios, which ranged up to a 319 billion ton net gain of stored carbon over the 21st century. About 500 to 1,000 billion ton of carbon are stored in land in the tropics. Climate change would be more damaging for the Amazon if greenhouse gases other than CO2, such as ozone or methane which do not have a fertilizing effect, take a bigger role, the study said. It did not factor in damaging effects from deforestation, mostly burning to clear land for farms, that is blamed for perhaps 17 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Brazil has sharply reduced forest losses in recent years. But predictions of a die-back in coming decades had led some people to conclude that there was no point safeguarding trees. "Some people argued bizarrely that it would be better to chop them down and use them now," Cox said, adding that the new findings meant that reasoning was no longer valid. By underlining the importance of trees for soaking up CO2, the study could also bolster slow-paced efforts to create a market mechanism to reward nations for preserving tropical forests as part of U.N. negotiations on a new treaty to slow climate change, due to be agreed by the end of 2015. improvingThe Amazon forest is improving – most recent and best data prove – countries are adopting new satellite tech that is helping preservation effortsButler 13 (Rhett Butler, June 13th, 2013, Mongabay, Peru opens deforestation data to the public, shows drop in Amazon forest clearing,” http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0613-peru-deforestation-tracking-system.html, date accessed 7/03/2013, WOOJAE) Peru has made its comprehensive deforestation data available to the public. The data shows that while more than 100,000 hectares have been cleared in the Peruvian Amazon on annual basis since 2005, the rate of clearing has slowed in recent years. Between 2009 and 2010, some 108,571 ha of forest were lost in the region. Between 2010 and 2011, that number fell to 103,380 ha or 0.16 percent of the Peruvian Amazon's forest cover annually. Overall, more than 78 percent of the area is forested, down from 80 percent or about 63 million hectares in 2000. Peru's deforestation monitoring system has been in development with several partners since late 2009. The system is based primarily on analysis of satellite data using CLASlite, a software tool that uses images from NASA's Landsat and MODIS sensors to generate maps revealing changes in forest cover, including deforestation and degradation. The data was checked by field sampling and the use of flyovers. According to the Peru's ministry of environment, MINAM, the system can detect changes from forest to non-forest to a level of detail of 0.09 hectares or 30 meters by 30 meters. It tracks change across 95 percent of Peru's forest cover with 92 percent accuracy, an above-average degree of accuracy for such a large area. Greg Asner, a research at the Carnegie Institution for Science who has been working with the Peruvian government on the project, says the system could be a model for other countries developing deforestation tracking platforms. "This is a big deal," Asner told mongabay.com. "The Peruvian government is making their first estimates of deforestation available online for others to view. Perhaps more countries will install their own high-resolution mapping teams and make the results as transparent as Peru has done here." Peru's new system will help it move forward on its program for reducing emissions on deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Peru is one of several countries participating in the Governors Climate and Forests Initiative, an effort to set up frameworks for REDD+ programs between states and provinces internationally. Ext. improvingThe Amazon forest is improving – 84% less deforestation and Copenhagen limits are being metPresse 13 (Agence Presse, June 5th, 2013, MSN News, “Amazon deforestation reduced by nearly 84%: Brazil,” http://news.ph.msn.com/top-stories/amazon-deforestation-reduced-by-nearly-84percent-brazil-2, date accessed 7/03/2013, WOOJAE) Brazil said Wednesday it has reduced Amazon deforestation by nearly 84 percent over the past eight years and is nearing its international target for slowing devastation of the world's largest rainforest. From August 2011 to July 2012, 4,571 square kilometers (1,764 square miles) of Amazon forest were destroyed, 27 percent less than during the previous corresponding period and the lowest rate since Brazil began monitoring, said Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira. It was the fourth consecutive annual reduction. Teixeira said the country "reached 76 percent of its voluntary deforestation reduction goal in the Amazon as agreed in Copenhagen in 2009," referring to an international conference on climate change held that year. That goal set the deforestation ceiling at 3,900 square kilometers (1,505 square miles) in 2020. According to official but still provisional data, deforestation totaled 1,900 square kilometers between August 2012 and April 2013. Key causes of the destruction include fires, the expansion of agriculture and livestock, and illegal trafficking in timber and minerals. Coalition of research institutions show that the Amazon forest is improving – drastic drop in deforestation and increase in protected areasButler 12 (Rhett Butler, December 6th, 2012, Mongabay, “Deforestation rate falls across Amazon rainforest countries,” http://news.mongabay.com/2012/1205-raisg-amazon-atlas.html, date accessed 7/03/2013, WOOJAE) The average annual rate of deforestation across Amazon rainforest countries dropped sharply in the second half of the 2000s, reports a comprehensive new assessment of the region's forest cover and drivers of deforestation. While the drop in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has been widely reported, several other Amazon countries saw their rates of forest loss drop as well, according to the report, which was published by a coalition of 11 Latin American civil society groups and research institutions that form the Amazonian Network of Georeferenced Socio-Environmental Information (RAISG). The atlas shows the sharpest decline occurred in the tiny nation of Suriname, where deforestation fell 80 percent from 938 square kilometers between 2000 and 2005 to just 191 sq km between 2005 and 2010. Brazil (61 percent drop), Venezuela (46 percent), Ecuador (18 percent), Guyana (17 percent), and Bolivia (17 percent) followed. Brazil experienced the overall largest drop in deforestation in terms of overall area, going from 138,804 sq km to 54,181 sq km between the two periods. Deforestation increased in Peru (4 percent), Colombia (32 percent), and French Guiana (40 percent). Overall deforestation across the Amazon fell by 53 percent between the two periods. Meanwhile the extent of indigenous territories and protected areas also increased during the decade. 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