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SMIL Bad --- Proliferation 1NC
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SMIL Bad --- Proliferation 1NCSpace weaponization causes proliferationKrepon and Katz-Hyman 5 – Michael Krepon, president and CEO of the Henry L. Stimson Center, Michael Katz-Hyman, research assistant at Stimson, July 2005, “Space Weapons and Proliferation,” Stimson Institute, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Space_Weapons_and_Proliferation.pdf Successful efforts to stop and reverse proliferation face long odds when the dominant state demands to play by its own rules. These odds become even longer when the dominant state cannot enlist the active support of Moscow and Beijing on hard proliferation cases that bother Washington more than them. Nor do Russian or Chinese leaders appear unduly distressed over the difficulties US forces presently face in Iraq. Burden sharing with respect to proliferation is not high on their list of priorities, and is likely to drop lower if US space warfare initiatives are pursued. Official Chinese and Russian threat perceptions of the United States are not articulated in public, but they may reasonably be inferred. Both capitals might well question why Washington seeks to extend its military dominance into space by pursuing capabilities that would not be particularly helpful in scenarios involving Iran, North Korea, or other developing countries. Instead, the pursuit of US dominance into space may well be viewed by Moscow and Beijing as part of a broader effort to negate their nuclear deterrents. If so, prospects for nonproliferation and disarmament would further decline. When dominance poses a threat to major powers whose cooperation is most needed to halt and reverse proliferation, dominance becomes part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. Prolif causes extinctionHellman 8 – Martin Hellman 8, Prof Emeritus of Engineering @ Stanford, “Defusing the Nuclear Threat: A Necessary First Step,” http://www.nuclearrisk.org/statement.php Nuclear deterrence has worked for over fifty years, while attempts at nuclear disarmament have borne very limited fruit. The success of deterrence combined with the failure of disarmament has fostered the belief that, repulsive as nuclear deterrence might be, it is the only strategy we can depend on for the indefinite future. Given the horrific consequences of even a single failure, the real question is whether deterrence will work until it is no longer needed. Anything less is a modern day version of Neville Chamberlain’s infamous 1938 statement promising “Peace in our time,” implicitly leaving the problem and likely destruction to our children’s generation. And, as occurred to Chamberlain’s Britain, devastation could come much sooner than anticipated. The danger increases with each new entrant into the nuclear weapons club and more new members, including terrorist groups, are likely in the near future. Given that the survival of humanity is at stake, it is surprising that risk analysis studies of nuclear deterrence are incomplete. A number of studies have estimated the cost of a failure, with estimates ranging from megadeaths for a limited exchange or terrorist act, through possible human extinction for a full-scale nuclear war. But there is a lack of studies of an equally important component of the risk, namely the failure rate of deterrence. Proliferation 2NC --- Link ExtensionSpace weaponization causes widespread prolif and US/Russia warZhang 5 – Hui Zhang, research associate in the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University, December 5, 2005, “Action/Reaction: U.S. Space Weaponization and China,” Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/print/1943 Moreover, space weaponization would seriously disrupt the arms control and disarmament process. The initiation of U.S. space-based missile defenses would likely cause Russia as well as the United States (in response to Russia) to make smaller reductions in their nuclear arsenals. China would likely be forced to build more warheads to maintain its nuclear deterrent, which could in turn encourage India and then Pakistan to follow suit. Also, Russia has threatened to respond to any country’s deployment of space weapons. Failure to proceed with the nuclear disarmament process would also further undermine the already fragile nuclear nonproliferation regime. As Ambassador Hu Xiaodi warned in 2001, “With lethal weapons flying overhead in orbit and disrupting global strategic stability, why should people eliminate [weapons of mass destruction] or missiles on the ground? This cannot but do harm to global peace, security and stability, hence be detrimental to the fundamental interests of all states.” Space weaponization causes global proliferationKrepon and Katz-Hyman 5 – Michael Krepon, president and CEO of the Henry L. Stimson Center, Michael Katz-Hyman, research assistant at Stimson, July 2005, “Space Weapons and Proliferation,” Stimson Institute, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Space_Weapons_and_Proliferation.pdf We argue that additional proliferation of nuclear weapons, rather than new arms races, is the most likely outcome in the event of renewed interest in space warfare. Proliferation will be a natural consequence of more nations feeling less secure as a result of space weapons. Adverse proliferation consequences could be both direct and indirect. China and Russia will likely feel most directly threatened by US space warfare initiatives. Beijing will likely increase its nuclear weapon requirements to counter increased threat perceptions without engaging in an arms race, while Moscow will likely seek to adjust the contraction of its nuclear arsenal, to the extent the Kremlin believes that its deterrent might be challenged by US initiatives. Indirect, horizontal proliferation is likely to result from greater strains in major power relations and in US-alliance ties triggered by US initiatives to dominate space. In the absence of united fronts against proliferation by major powers and by US friends and allies, international efforts to strengthen nonproliferation and disarmament norms are likely to fail, and hedging strategies against a more worrisome future are likely to multiply. 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