Space weapons cause an arms race and destroy the US space industry
Hitchens 2 – Theresa Hitchens is Director of the Center for Defense Information, and leads its Space Security Project, in cooperation with the SecureWorld Foundation. Editor of Defense News from 1998 to 2000, Hitchens has had a long career in journalism, with a focus on military, defense industry and NATO affairs. She also was director of research at the British American Security Information Council. Hitchens serves on the editorial board of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and is a member of Women in International Security and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 18th, 2002, "Weapons in Space: Silver Bullet or Russian Roulette? The Policy Implications of U.S. Pursuit of Space-Based Weapons," www.cdi.org/missile-defense/spaceweapons.cfm
As noted, there is also the question of intent. It is not obvious that any nation has any intention, or even incentive, to launch a war in space. Instead, most countries, including China and Russia, have been urging a global ban on weapons in space. Many experts, including a number of Air Force strategists, persuasively argue a U.S. move to put offensive weapons in space could have the perverse effect of creating a new threat because other countries would feel compelled to follow suit.26 Nonetheless, it is impossible to completely assess any threat to U.S. national security without the benefit of classified information. That said, it also must be recognized that threat assessment is not the only necessary input to the creation of national security policy. Even assuming an urgent threat to U.S. space operations, an assessment of how best to counter those threats — including the pros and cons of the United States responding by becoming the first country to put weapons in space — would still be necessary.In particular, it is imperative to look at risks emanating from such a decision. These include: the potential for starting an arms race in space that does both military and political damage to the United States; and the possibility that the advent of space warfare might negatively impact the U.S. commercial space and telecommunications industry, which now dominates the world marketplace.
Space dominance and weaponization destroys the industry – deters investors
Kaufman et al. 8 – Richard Kaufman is a member of the board of directors and a vice chair of Economists for Peace and Security, and Director of Bethesda Research Institute, which he founded. He was formerly a staff economist and general counsel of the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress. **AND Dr. Henry Hertzfeld is a Senior Research Scientist at the Space Policy Institute of the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. He holds both a doctorate in economics and a law degree. Before joining the Institute, Dr. Hertzfeld was Senior Economist at NASA from1976-1983. **AND Jeffrey G. Lewis is Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation. Dr. Lewis is also a research affiliate with the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy (CISSM) and a member of the Editorial Advisory Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. September 2008, "Space, Security, and the Economy," www.epsusa.org/publications/papers/spacesecurity.pdf
However, continued growth and dynamism, especially in the commercial space sector is dependent on a space environment that is free of conflict. The policy of space dominance threatens that precondition. If there are more anti-satellite tests, or if space-based missile defenses are deployed, it will be difficult to prevent the proliferation of weapons in space. The next step could be the transformation of space from an area of peaceful use into an area of conflict. Once the process of weaponization gets under way, the ability to use the space environment for peaceful purposes will be put at risk, as a number of experts have warned.13 At some point commercial investors in space will have to consider the security of their investments. It is hard to believe they would place additional resources at risk in a vulnerable area of military conflict.
Space weaponization prevents commercial use of space – threatens the industry
Kaufman, Hertzfeld, and Lewis 8 – Richard Kaufman, member of the board of directors and a vice chair of Economists for Peace and Security and Director of Bethesda Research Institute, Henry Hertzfeld, Senior Research Scientist at the Space Policy Institute of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, Jeffrey Lewis, Director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, September 2008, “Space, Security and the Economy,” http://www.epsusa.org/publications/papers/spacesecurity.pdf
There has been rapid growth over the past few decades in commercial activities in space and in the economic applications of space technology. Continued growth and dynamism, especially in the commercial space sector, is dependent on a space environment that is free of military threat or conflict. The policy of space dominance threatens that precondition. If there are more anti-satellite tests, or if space-based missile defenses are deployed, it will be difficult to prevent the proliferation of weapons in space, or terrestrial weapons that can target space assets. One possible scenario could be the transformation of space into a battleground. Once the process of weaponization gets under way, the ability to use the space environment for peaceful purposes is threatened. At some point commercial investors in space will have to consider the security of their investments. It is unlikely that they would place additional resources at risk in a vulnerable area of military conflict.
US weaponization prevents commercial space use – threatens the industry
Lowery 7 – Scott Lowery, systems engineer at Lockheed Martin, 2007, “Why the Weaponization of Space Should Not Be Pursued,” http://www.colorado.edu/pwr/occasions/articles/Lowery_Why%20the%20Weaponization%20of%20Space%20Should%20Not%20Be%20Pursued.pdf
Another reason to avoid weaponizing space is that to do so would threaten the burgeoning space industry. Presently, there are several companies developing launch vehicles to lift payloads to space at far lower costs than any government agency. Also, there is the space tourism and travel industry to consider. No longer in an embryonic state, commercial flights will be available as early as 2009 (Overview). In the near future, suborbital flights will become as common as trans-Atlantic flights are today. They are the first step towards a general private use of space. There is a great deal of potential economic growth tied up in these ventures, but none of it will mature if people feel that they would be flying through enemy territory, so to speak, or that their investments are at too great a risk. Since there is no orbital analogue to airspace, future spaceflights could be endangered by weapons from any country regardless of their trajectory. It is even possible that weapons could be deployed against civilian space targets without detection. There would not be any evidence to assign blame to a particular nation, making spaceflights a tempting target. Even if they were not targeted directly, spaceflights would still be at a significant risk from the debris resulting from the use of space weapons. Much like chemical weapons, space weapons create a hazardous environment. Simple physics insists that even a tiny piece of shrapnel from a destroyed satellite can cause major damage when it is travelling at orbital velocities. In light of these concerns, the weaponization of space would not benefit the United States and could potentially cause great damage, both politically and economically.
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