**Fiscal Discipline da 2
UQ Discretionary Spending Freeze
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- UQ Transportation Spending
- *UQ Economy* UQ Econ-General
- The economy is improving, multiple factors prove
- The economy is slowly growing
UQ Discretionary Spending FreezeDiscretionary spending frozen nowThe New York Times, 2011 [“Pentagon Seeks Biggest Military Cuts Since Before 9/11,” THOM SHANKER and CHRISTOPHER DREW, January 6, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/07/us/07military.html]bg The president's budget for the 2012 fiscal year, which is due by mid-February, would freeze discretionary spending, but that would not apply to military, veterans and Homeland Security programs. Last fall, a majority of the members of Mr. Obama's bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, including three Republican senators, said military spending also should be reduced as part of a long-term debt-reduction plan. UQ Transportation SpendingUQ GOP Pushing CutsGOP pushing fiscal disciplineCrotty, Ph.D., Carnegie-Mellon University, 12 (Crotty, James, “The great austerity war: what caused the US deficit crisis and who should pay to fix it?” Cambridge Journal of Economics, Volume 36, Pages 79-104 Accessed: 6-29-12) ADJ The radical budget bill passed by the House in April 2011 demonstrated conclusively that the Republican Party is committed to the destruction of New Deal programmes. The bill calls for non-defence spending cuts of $4.5 trillion dollars over ten years (not counting reduced interest payments). Cuts in low-income programmes, at $2.9 trillion, would be almost two-thirds of the total. An additional $400 billion would come from unspecified cuts in discretionary programmes serving lower-income Americans. The CBO’s analysis of the House bill states that all federal spending other than on Social Security (which the bill does not address), Medicare, Medicaid and interest payments will drop ‘from 12 percent [of GDP] in 2010 to 6 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent by 2050’. It notes that ‘spending in this category has exceeded 8 percent of GDP in every year sinceWorldWar II’ (Greenstein, 2011A). *UQ Economy*UQ Econ-GeneralUS economy on the rise-key indicatorsWashington Post, 6-21-12 [“Measure of US economy rose 0.3 percent in May, the 7th increase in 8 months”, Associated Press, June 21, 2012, lex/nex]bg A measure of future U.S. economic activity rose in May to the highest level in four years, a sign the economy will keep growing but at a modest pace. The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent last month, after a 0.1 percent drop in April. April’s drop was the first in seven months. The index is now at 95.8. The last time it was higher was June 2008, six months into the Great Recession. Prior to the recession, the index routinely topped 100. Other figures released Thursday, however, suggest the economy is softening. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits were little changed last week from a level that signals weak job growth. And factory activity in the Philadelphia region contracted for the second straight month, according to a survey by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Seven of the ten components of the Conference Board’s index rose last month. The biggest drivers of the increase in the index were building permits, the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates, and an increase in new manufacturing orders, according to a survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The economy “is growing modestly, neither losing nor gaining momentum,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a business research group. “The result is more of a muddle through.” The economy is improving, multiple factors proveOrange County Register, June 28, 2012 (Orange County Register, “Somewhat cheerier economy on the way,” June 28, 2012, LexisNexis, Accessed: 7-4-12) ADJ The economy is improving modestly across the country, but the recovery remains weak. That was the forecast Wednesday for the United States, California and Orange County from Chapman University's A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, presented before about 800 local community and business leaders at The Hilton in Costa Mesa. Chapman President Jim Doti projected that real gross domestic product growth of 1.7 percent in 2011 would rise to 2.3 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent in 2013. That's better than a recession, but not by much. The national unemployment rate is expected to drop further, to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 from 8.1 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (which ends Saturday). By contrast, previous recoveries, such as those in the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s and the early 2000s, brought unemployment down to 5 percent or less. Mr. Doti gave encouraging news on real estate. The days of sharp declines, such as the 11.9 percent price crash in 2009 and the 4.5 percent drop of 2011, are over. He's projecting a 0.9 percent rise in 2012, followed by a 4.1 percent increase in 2013, the first home-price advance above the inflation rate since the crash. The economy is slowly growingHodges, studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy, June 21, 2012 (Paul Hodges, studies key influences shaping the chemical industry in Chemicals and the Economy, “US leading indicators rise in May, economy to 'muddle through,” LexisNexis, June 21, 2012, Accessed: 7-2-12) ADJ WASHINGTON (ICIS)--Economic data on near-term prospects for US growth edged up by 0.3% in May from April, reversing an April decline and suggesting that the nation will "muddle through" over the next six months, a key survey said on Thursday. The [1]Conference Board, a 95-year-old business analysis group in New York City, said its [2]leading economic index (LEI) for May rose to 95.8. The LEI represents a cumulative measure of ten different business and economic gauges, such as manufacturers' new orders, residential building permits, interest rates and consumer sentiment, among others. The current index is measured against the baseline level of 100 set in 2004, before the 2008-2009 US recession. The 0.3% gain in May more than offset the 0.1% decline in April and served to reaffirm the 0.2% advance in March, the board said. Board economist Ken Goldstein said data underlying the index "in general reflect a US economy that is growing modestly, neither losing nor gaining momentum". The US experienced GDP growth of only 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, slowing from the near-normal GDP rate of 3% in the fourth quarter of 2011. Subsequent data on [3]employment growth, consumer confidence, the long-depressed US housing sector and moderations in consumer spending and [4]business investment have suggested that the US economy could be cooling further in the second quarter. But Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim noted that the leading economic index has remained "in expansionary territory and is well above its growth at the end of 2011". That indicates, said Ozyildirim, there is "a relatively low risk of a downturn in the second half of 2012". Goldstein said recent data suggest the US economy will be "more of a muddle through" rather than a strong expansion in quarters ahead. He also cautioned that ongoing headwinds, both domestic and foreign, "make further strengthening of the economy difficult". U.S. Growth is going upKatz, reporter for Bloomberg, July 3, 2012 (Ian, IMF lowers U.S. Growth Projections to 2 percent, July 3, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-03/imf-lowers-u-s-growth-projections-to-2-percent.html, 7-4-12) I.M.R. The U.S. economy will grow by 2 percent this year and about 2.25 percent in 2013 amid a “tepid” recovery and the European debt crisis, the International Monetary Fund said, lowering its previous projections. The U.S. remains “subject to elevated downside risks, in light of financial strains in the euro area and uncertainty over domestic fiscal plans,” the IMF said in a statement today. In an April report, the IMF forecast U.S. growth of 2.1 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2013. “Further easing” by the Federal Reserve might be needed “if the situation was to deteriorate,” IMF Managing DirectorChristine Lagarde said at a press conference in Washington today. She said she welcomed previous actions by the Fed to help the U.S. economy, including the expansion of the so-called Operation Twist that replaces short-term Treasuries in the Fed’s portfolio with longer-term debt to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings. Lagarde said the “downside risks” include the euro crisis and the “fiscal cliff” of expiring tax cuts and mandatory spending reductions that will take effect at the end of the year unless Congress acts. She said the risk of U.S. lawmakers not reaching an agreement on the federal debt ceiling “is also a clear potential for financial market disruption.” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithnerhas said the executive branch has “tools” that can push back raising the debt limit until early 2013.
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