Florida commission on hurricane loss projection methodology



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Florida County Codes





County


County




County


County




County


County


Code


Name




Code


Name




Code


Name


















001

Alachua





049

Hardee





093

Okeechobee




003

Baker





051

Hendry





095

Orange



005

Bay





053

Hernando





097

Osceola



007

Bradford





055

Highlands






099

Palm Beach




009

Brevard





057

Hillsborough






101

Pasco



011

Broward





059

Holmes





103

Pinellas



013

Calhoun





061

Indian River






105

Polk



015

Charlotte






063

Jackson





107

Putnam



017

Citrus





065

Jefferson






109

St. Johns




019

Clay





067

Lafayette






111

St. Lucie




021

Collier





069

Lake





113

Santa Rosa




023

Columbia





071

Lee





115

Sarasota



027

De Soto





073

Leon





117

Seminole



029

Dixie





075

Levy





119

Sumter



031

Duval





077

Liberty





121

Suwannee



033

Escambia





079

Madison





123

Taylor



035

Flagler





081

Manatee





125

Union



037

Franklin





083

Marion





127

Volusia



039

Gadsden





085

Martin





129

Wakulla



041

Gilchrist






086

Miami-Dade






131

Walton



043

Glades





087

Monroe






133

Washington




045

Gulf





089

Nassau











047

Hamilton





091

Okaloosa










Note: These codes are derived from the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) Codes.

Figure 2

State of Florida

By County
florida county mapComparison of 2011 Standards to 2009 Standards to 2008 Standards


Standard

Title

Comments










General







G-1

Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation

Significant Revision

G-2

Qualifications of Modeling Organization Personnel and Consultants




G-3

Risk Location




G-4

Independence of Model Components




G-5

Editorial Compliance













Meteorological







M-1

Base Hurricane Storm Set

Significant Revision

M-2

Hurricane Parameters and Characteristics

Significant Revision

M-3

Hurricane Probabilities

Significant Revision

M-4

Hurricane Windfield Structure

Significant Revision

M-5

Landfall and Over-Land Weakening Methodologies

Significant Revision

M-6

Logical Relationships of Hurricane Characteristics













Vulnerability







V-1

Derivation of Vulnerability Functions

Significant Revision

V-2

Derivation of Contents and Time Element Vulnerability Functions

Significant Revision

V-23

Mitigation Measures













Actuarial







A-1

Modeled Loss Costs and Probable Maximum Loss LevelsModeling Input Data

Significant Revision

A-2

Underwriting AssumptionsEvent Definition

Significant Revision

A-3

Modeled Loss Cost Projections and Probable Maximum Loss LevelsConsiderations

Significant Revision

A-4

Demand Surge

Significant Revision

A-5

User Inputs




A-6

Logical Relationship to Risk

Significant Revision

A-74

Deductibles, Policy Limits, and CoinsuranceConditions

Significant Revision

A-85

ContentsCoverages

Significant Revision

A-9

Time Element Coverage

Significant Revision

A-106

Loss Output Ranges

Significant Revision

A-11

Probable Maximum Loss

Significant Revision










Statistical







S-1

Modeled Results and Goodness-of-Fit




S-2

Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output

Significant Revision

S-3

Uncertainty Analysis for Model Output

Significant Revision

S-4

County Level Aggregation




S-5

Replication of Known Hurricane Losses

Significant Revision

S-6

Comparison of Projected Hurricane Loss Costs













Computer







C-1

Documentation

Significant Revision

C-2

Requirements

Significant Revision

C-3

Model Architecture and Component Design




C-4

Implementation




C-5

Verification

Significant Revision

C-6

Model Maintenance and Revision




C-7

Security





Note: The Commission has determined that “significant changes” are those that result in or have potential for changes to loss costs or probable maximum loss levels. The Commission may determine, in its judgment, whether a change is significant.

GENERAL STANDARDS


G-1 Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation*

(*Significant Revision)



  1. The computer model shall project loss costs and probable maximum loss levels for residential property insured damage from hurricane events.




  1. The modeling organization shall maintain a documented process to assure continual agreement and correct correspondence of databases, data files, and computer source code to slides, technical papers, and/or modeling organization documents.

Purpose: This standard gives a high level view of the scope of the model to be reviewed, namely projecting loss costs and probable maximum loss levels for residential property (personal and commercial) insured damage from hurricane events.


Relevant Form: G-1, General Standards Expert Certification
Disclosures


  1. Specify the model and program version number.




  1. Provide a comprehensive summary of the model. This summary shall include a technical description of the model including each major component of the model used to produce residential loss costs and probable maximum loss levels in the State of Florida. Describe the theoretical basis of the model and include a description of the methodology, particularly the wind components, the damage components, and the insured loss components used in the model. The description shall be complete and shall not reference unpublished work.




  1. Provide a flow diagram that illustrates interactions among major model components.




  1. Provide a comprehensive list of complete references pertinent to the submission by standard grouping, according to professional citation standards.




  1. Provide the following information related to changes in the model from the previously accepted submission to the initial submission this year:.




    1. Model changes:




      1. A summary description of changes that affect the significant changes and personal or commercial residential loss costs or probable maximum loss levels,




      1. A list of non-significantall other changes, and




      1. The rationale for each change.

B. Percentage difference in average annual zero deductible statewide loss costs for:




  1. All changes combined, and




  1. Each significantindividual model component change, and.

C. Color-coded maps by county reflecting the percentage difference in average annual zero deductible statewide loss costs for each significant model component change.


Audit
1. The main intent of the audit is to determine the capabilities of the model and to assess its implementation for purposes of Florida projected insured loss costs and probable maximum loss levels. Copies of all representative or primary technical papers that describe the underlying model theory shall be made available.


  1. The process defined in Standard G-1.B will be: (1) reviewed for its inclusion of all stages of the modeling process, and (2) traced using the Computer Standards for one or more items listed in the response to Disclosure 5.




  1. All software (1) located within the model, (2) used to compile data used by the model, (3) used to validate the model, and(4) used to project model loss costs and probable maximum loss levels (1), and (5) used to create forms required by the Report of Activities:

a. Shall fall within the scope of the Computer Standards, and (2) will be reviewed;

b. Shall be located in centralized, model-level file areas; and

c. Shall be reviewable interactively (viewed simultaneously by all Professional Team members in conjunction with the review of each standard).


  1. Maps, databases, or data files relevant to the modeling organization’s submission will be reviewed.




  1. Provide the following information related to changes in the model from the initial submission this year to each subsequent revision.




  1. Model changes:




        1. A summary description of changes that affect, or believe to affect, the personal or commercial residential loss costs or probable maximum loss levels,




        1. A list of all other changes, and




        1. The rationale for each change.




    1. Percentage difference in average annual zero deductible statewide loss costs for:




        1. All changes combined, and

Each


        1. individual model component change.

C. For any modifications to Form A-4 since the initial submission, additional versions of Form A-5:


1. With the initial submission as the baseline for computing the percentage changes, and
2. With any intermediate revisions as the baseline for computing the percentage changes.
D. Color-coded maps by county reflecting the percentage difference in average annual zero deductible statewide loss costs for each model component change:


  1. Between the previously accepted submission and the revised submission,




  1. Between the initial submission and the revised submission, and




  1. Between any intermediate revisions and the revised submission.



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