In the second round, respondents were also asked to judge the likely spread over time of principles which might be used in decision making and to resolve ethical issues.
The resolution principles seen as having the greatest spread were:
in 2005
Principle Number
|
Principle
|
Spread
|
1
|
Life is a divine unalterable gift.
|
4.138
|
12
|
Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.
|
4.003
|
6
|
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
|
3.899
|
22
|
The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.
|
3.828
|
8
|
People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
|
3.709
|
29
|
Precedents and tradition are important.
|
3.635
|
25
|
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
|
3.541
|
19
|
Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.
|
3.537
|
16
|
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
|
3.451
|
10
|
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
|
3.411
|
in 2025:
Principle Number
|
Principle
|
Spread
|
25
|
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
|
4.017
|
6
|
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
|
3.976
|
8
|
People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
|
3.895
|
12
|
Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other living and non-living things.
|
3.773
|
1
|
Life is a divine unalterable gift.
|
3.744
|
16
|
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
|
3.737
|
24
|
The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.
|
3.728
|
10
|
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
|
3.718
|
11
|
Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans.
|
3.718
|
14
|
Make decisions that minimize (or preferably do no) harm.
|
3.694
|
in 2050
Principle Number
|
Principle
|
Spread
|
25
|
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
|
4.344
|
24
|
The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.
|
4.147
|
8
|
People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
|
4.130
|
23
|
Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.
|
4.130
|
6
|
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
|
4.027
|
10
|
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
|
3.997
|
14
|
Make decisions that minimize (or preferably do no) harm.
|
3.997
|
16
|
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
|
3.916
|
28
|
Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering.
|
3.880
|
26
|
Treat other people the way you would like to be treated.
|
3.876
|
A review of these three tables shows that, remarkably, five of top principles in 2005 were present in all three time periods:
6
|
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
|
8
|
People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
|
10
|
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
|
16
|
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
|
25
|
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
|
The following graph compares the judgments about levels of acceptance in 2005 with those anticipated for 2050. All entries above the diagonal line represent spreading values.
To summarize, the principles that were seen to spread between 2005 and 2050 are: (the numbers at the end of each line represent the difference between the average assessment for 2005 and 2050):
21 World interests should prevail
over nation-state interests. 1.318
23 Protection of the environment and
biodiversity should be considered in
any policy. 1.294
3 Harmony with nature is more important
than economic progress. 1.155
13 Human space migration is part of human
evolution. 1.127
18 Care for future generations should be a major
focus of today's actions. 1.032
24 The rights of women and children are
uninfringeable and fundamental for a
healthy society. 1.023
30 Make decisions that have universal applicability. 0.847
25 Access to education is a fundamental human
right. 0.803
15 Society has the obligation to intervene in
genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and
cruelties. 0.738
20 Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of
benefits) is essential in decision making. 0.708
And the principles seen to contract were:
29 Precedents and tradition are important. -0.368
22 The family in all its forms is the foundation
of social values. -0.491
11 Any artificial form of life intelligent enough
to request rights should be given these rights
and be treated with the same respect as
humans. -0.513
12 Human rights should always prevail over
the rights of other living and non-living things. -0.514
19 Economic progress is the most reliable path
to human happiness. -0.605
01 Life is a divine unalterable gift. -0.810
In order to understand the shifts envisioned by the group, the principles where divided into a number of categories, mentioned previously and as shown below.
Philosophy
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
People must be responsible for their actions
Make decisions which do no harm.
Treat people the way you would like to be treated.
Make decisions bringing most good to most people.
Make decisions that have universal applicability.
Science
Scientific research is a more reliable path than religious faith.
Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights
Human space migration is part of human evolution.
Society has the obligation to intervene in genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and cruelties.
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
Religion
Life is a divine unalterable gift.
Compassion is required for justice.
The spiritual dimension of human life is more important then the material one.
The family is the foundation of social values.
Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering
Policy Imperatives
World interests should prevail over national interests.
Collective security is more important than individual freedom.
Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.
Care for future generations should be a major focus of today's actions.
Operations Research
Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment.
Fairness underlies most successful policies.
Economic progress is the most reliable path to human happiness.
Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of benefits) is essential in decision making.
Wisdom
Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
Human rights should always prevail over the rights of other
living and non-living things.
The rights of women and children are uninfringeable
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
Precedents and tradition are important.
Using these divisions, the paths of evolution of the principles seen by the respondents could be traced, as shown below.
Thus, strong growth is seen for the groupings we have titled Policy Imperatives; modest growth for Philosophy, Wisdom, and Science; and relative stasis for Operations Research and Religion
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