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With a sample of more than 300 respondents, it is possible to search the answers to questions posed in Round 2, in an attempt to identify systematic differences among groups. For example it would be instructive to see if men and women differed in what they saw as the most important issue, or if respondents in the various regions saw the possible spread and acceptance ethical principals in more or less the same way. In fact a number of such special analyses were carried out.
8.1 Gender Analysis.
Judgments about the importance and ease of resolution made by men (sample size was about 200) and women (sample size about 100) on the panel were displayed on a scatter chart. With a few minor exceptions, the answers from both genders were quite similar, as shown on the following two charts:
Among the 2005 issues, women and men found the following issues most important (list in order of importance):
Women
|
Men
|
1.2 What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?
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1.2 What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?
|
1.8 Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
|
1.5 hould religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?
|
1.7 Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?
|
1.3 Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”
|
1.5 Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?
|
1.8 Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
|
1.3 Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”
|
1.7 Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?
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For the 2050 issues, the lists of important issues are:
Women
|
Men
|
3.1 Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?
|
3.1 Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?
|
3.2 Is it ethical for society to manage the creation of future elites who have augmented themselves with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?
|
3.2 Is it ethical for society to manage the creation of future elites who have augmented themselves with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?
|
3.6 Is it right to pursue research that will result in the creation of intelligent technological “beings” that will have the capacity to compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?
|
3.11 Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?
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3.11 Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?
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3.6 Is it right to pursue research that will result in the creation of intelligent technological “beings” that will have the capacity to compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?
|
3.8 Considering the economic and other consequences of an aging population, should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?
|
3.8 Considering the economic and other consequences of an aging population, should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?
|
In other words, the items on the list are identical and their order is almost identical. Conclusion: women and men find the same issues most important in the years ahead.
A second method of analysis was employed in which the rank ordered issued were deployed in polar coordinates. The importance of the issue varied as distance from the origin increased. The following figure takes average importance judgments for all three time frames and plots them for both men and women.
The plot has a spiral form because the issues were arrayed in rank order by importance, starting with the least important to women, issue 2.2 [Should there be two standards for intellectual, athletic, musical, and other forms of competition: one for the un-augmented and another for those whose performance has been enhanced by drugs, bionics, genetic engineering, and/or nanobots?]. Incidentally, this was also the least important to men. Then we track around the spokes until we arrive at the most important issue for women, 1.2 [What is the ethical way to intervene in a country that is endangering people significantly enough to justify collective action by other countries, abridging the first nation’s sovereignty?], which, again is close to the top for men.
Note that in this type of presentation, whenever the two curves touch, the judgments for both groups is identical; the space between the curves is a mark of the level of disagreement.
T
he same analysis was performed for principles in the three time periods, and the polar plots for these were as follows.
Note that the spiral of 2005 moves out to become almost circular indicating that the respondents felt that some of the least accepted principles of 2005 would become more acceptable with time. Note also at the top of the scale there is a retrenchment: principles 12 and 1 which were near the top in 2005 have retreated by 2050. [Principle 1 is “Life is a divine unalterable gift” and 12 is “Human rights should always prevail.”]. By 2050, the biggest disagreement between men and women seems to be about the spread of principle 4 (in the S-SW of the graph) [“Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment”], with men thinking it more widespread than women, but for the other principles, the levels of agreement are extraordinary.
Thus:
-
Men and women ranked the same issues as important
8.2 Regional Analysis
The same sort of analysis was performed using the responses from people in common regions as the basis for comparison. The following numbers of people provided responses:
Africa 20
Asia, South Pacific 44
Europe 102
Latin America 90
Middle East, North Africa 5
North America 41
Total 302
Since the sample was so small for the Middle East, North African region, the following tables and figures do not include this region; however responses from the region were included in all computations involving the entire set of respondents, and their comments were included in the review of qualitative inputs.
The following table lists in rank order the issues that had the highest average importance using the total number of responses. The average of the responses for each region is also shown. The bold print indicates the top rated issue.
|
|
Globl
|
AF
|
ASP
|
E
|
LA
|
NA
|
1.2
|
What is the ethical way to intervene in the affairs of a country that is significantly endangering its or other people?
|
4.233
|
4.350
|
4.159
|
4.127
|
4.315
|
4.317
|
3.1
|
Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?
|
4.199
|
4.500
|
4.070
|
4.059
|
4.270
|
4.282
|
3.2
|
Is it ethical for society to manage the creation of future elites who have augmented themselves with artificial intelligence and genetic engineering?
|
4.164
|
4.550
|
4.070
|
4.089
|
4.244
|
4.103
|
1.5
|
Should religions give up the claim of certainty and/or superiority to reduce religion-related conflicts?
|
4.133
|
4.500
|
4.159
|
3.931
|
4.122
|
4.390
|
2.4
|
Do we have the right to alter our genetic germ line so that future generations cannot inherit the potential for genetically related diseases or disabilities?
|
4.023
|
4.000
|
3.738
|
3.951
|
4.326
|
3.780
|
1.8
|
Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
|
4.023
|
4.263
|
3.795
|
4.000
|
4.267
|
3.650
|
1.3
|
Do parents have a right to create genetically altered “designer babies?”
|
4.020
|
3.800
|
3.955
|
3.892
|
4.244
|
4.024
|
3.11
|
Do we have a right to genetically interfere with newborns or embryos because their genetic code shows a high probability for future violent behavior?
|
4.017
|
4.000
|
3.907
|
3.851
|
4.295
|
3.974
|
2.9
|
To what degree should the rights and interests of future generations prevail in decisions of this generation?
|
3.983
|
4.000
|
3.762
|
3.950
|
4.169
|
3.897
|
3.6
|
Is it right to pursue research that will result in the creation of intelligent technological “beings” that will have the capacity to compete with humans or other biological life forms for an ecological niche?
|
3.953
|
4.150
|
3.953
|
3.780
|
4.079
|
3.923
|
3.8
|
Considering the economic and other consequences of an aging population, should we have the right to suicide and euthanasia?
|
3.919
|
4.100
|
3.651
|
3.782
|
4.101
|
4.026
|
1.7
|
Should national sovereignty and cultural differences be allowed to prevent international intervention designed to stop widespread violence perpetrated by men against women?
|
3.902
|
3.900
|
3.795
|
3.830
|
4.091
|
3.854
|
The similarity among responses from the regions is quite striking.
Considering the regional responses separately, the relationship between importance and difficulty in resolution ca be plotted and the correlation seen earlier for the total set and for men and women, also seems to hold for the individual regions.
Polar plots were also prepared in a manner similar to the plots used in the gender analysis. These are shown below for the issues as well as the principles in three time periods.
We see more variation among regions than we did between genders, but once again the similarities are clearly apparent. But a few major differences may be seen as shown in the following chart that presents the details for the spread of principles 2050, by region. The listing is rank ordered by difference between the maximum and minimum averages:
|
Principle
|
AF
|
ASP
|
E
|
LA
|
NA
|
DIFF
|
17
|
The spiritual dimension of human life is more important then the material one.
|
3.526
|
4.419
|
3.427
|
3.724
|
3.053
|
1.366
|
11
|
Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to request rights should be given these rights and be treated with the same respect as humans.
|
2.800
|
2.976
|
2.392
|
3.709
|
2.385
|
1.325
|
30
|
Make decisions that have universal applicability.
|
3.421
|
3.558
|
3.093
|
3.941
|
2.816
|
1.125
|
3
|
Harmony with nature is more important than economic progress.
|
3.263
|
3.884
|
3.353
|
3.920
|
2.923
|
0.996
|
18
|
Care for future generations should be a major focus of today's actions.
|
3.722
|
3.953
|
3.535
|
4.128
|
3.150
|
0.978
|
23
|
Protection of the environment and biodiversity should be considered in any policy.
|
4.211
|
4.186
|
3.942
|
4.535
|
3.595
|
0.940
|
21
|
World interests should prevail over nation-state interests.
|
3.737
|
3.698
|
3.427
|
3.930
|
3.000
|
0.930
|
16
|
Science and technology should serve society, rather than be just a pursuit of knowledge for its own sake.
|
3.316
|
4.070
|
3.835
|
4.230
|
3.564
|
0.914
|
15
|
Society has the obligation to intervene in genetic evolution to avoid its pitfalls and cruelties.
|
4.053
|
3.581
|
3.320
|
3.588
|
3.154
|
0.899
|
5
|
Collective security is more important than individual freedom.
|
3.316
|
3.698
|
3.175
|
3.874
|
4.053
|
0.878
|
8
|
People must be responsible for their actions or inactions.
|
4.000
|
4.209
|
4.097
|
4.395
|
3.579
|
0.816
|
28
|
Human beings have an obligation to mitigate suffering.
|
3.789
|
4.163
|
3.832
|
4.023
|
3.368
|
0.794
|
9
|
Fairness underlies most successful policies.
|
3.158
|
3.929
|
3.465
|
3.816
|
3.385
|
0.771
|
2
|
Scientific research is a more reliable path to truth than religious faith.
|
3.579
|
3.977
|
3.366
|
3.552
|
3.256
|
0.720
|
10
|
Intolerance leads to hate and social disintegration.
|
3.632
|
3.674
|
4.039
|
4.299
|
3.718
|
0.667
|
27
|
Collective considerations should prevail over individual well-being; make decisions that bring the most good to the most people.
|
3.421
|
3.837
|
3.307
|
3.919
|
3.316
|
0.612
|
20
|
Consideration of equity (e.g. distribution of benefits) is essential in decision making.
|
3.368
|
3.791
|
3.386
|
3.733
|
3.184
|
0.606
|
6
|
Human survival as a species is the highest priority.
|
3.895
|
3.767
|
3.942
|
4.372
|
3.769
|
0.605
|
4
|
Collective judgment is generally better than individual judgment.
|
3.316
|
3.595
|
3.029
|
3.372
|
3.308
|
0.566
|
7
|
Compassion is required for justice.
|
3.316
|
3.674
|
3.118
|
3.116
|
3.289
|
0.558
|
14
|
Make decisions which minimize (or preferably do no) harm.
|
3.947
|
4.023
|
3.861
|
4.264
|
3.718
|
0.546
|
24
|
The rights of women and children are uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy society.
|
4.105
|
4.163
|
4.127
|
4.326
|
3.789
|
0.536
|
22
|
The family in all its forms is the foundation of social values.
|
3.105
|
3.442
|
3.175
|
3.419
|
3.605
|
0.500
|
25
|
Access to education is a fundamental human right.
|
4.632
|
4.349
|
4.140
|
4.605
|
4.132
|
0.500
|
Thus:
-
With some variations, all regions saw the same issues as important
-
With a few exceptions, the regions saw roughly the same spread of principles in all years
-
The regions saw much the same shifts in the spread of principles
8.3 Cluster Analysis
W
ith both the gender analysis and the regional analysis showing that the groupings were more or less similar, we wondered if we could find two groups that showed major differences in assessment. In pursuing this objective we separated the sample into two groups based the respondents’ answer to issue 105a “Should religions give up their claim of certainty?” (Remember the respondents were not answering if the believed this to be so; they were only providing judgments about the relative importance of this item, and its difficulty in resolution. Had they been answering about their beliefs, the dichotomy might have been even sharper.) There were 222 respondents who provided an answer greater than 3 to this question, indicating their belief that it was quite important. Only 22 respondents replied with an estimate less than 3, and 79 with a judgment of 3 or above. We rank ordered the importance estimates according to the >3 group and compared the other groups using a polar plot as before which is shown below.
Note that there are very significant differences among these groups. There is of course the great difference in issue 1.5 “Should religions give up their claim of certainty?” This difference is expected since we used it as the basis for clustering. But consider issue 3.1 “Do we have the right to genetically change ourselves and future generations into a new or several new species?”. The >3 group considered this relatively important, but the <3 group rated it as much less important.
Thus,
-
Although a full statistical cluster analysis (or multi dimensional scaling) has not been done it is clear that groupings of respondents can be found that cluster around similar beliefs.
-
Clustering of this sort could lead to identification of like minded people or groups and clarify the issues underlying disagreement and possibly facilitate negotiations.
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