Fyi who has how many icebreakers



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Ext – Adv - Oil Spills




Ext – Spills coming now




During the winter, 65% of oil spills can’t be responded to



Nuka Research and Planning Group 7

(October, World Wildlife Foundation, “Oil Spill Response Challenges in Arctic Waters”, http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/wherewework/arctic/WWFBinaryitem24363.pdf)
A response gap analysis was conducted for two points on the Prince William Sound tanker transit route in Alaska. Datasets on wind, sea state, temperature and visibility were built using buoy observations from the previous five years. The operating limits of the open-water mechanical response system described in the tanker owners’ oil spill contingency plans were estimated based on literature, manufacturer ratings and best professional judgement. These limits were applied to the historical datasets in three categories – response possible, response impaired, and response impossible. Limiting factors were considered both in terms of independent and cumulative impacts. When two or more factors existed to make a response ‘impaired,’ then response was considered ‘impossible’ for that time period. The Prince William Sound response gap analysis found that a response gap – during which no oil spill response activities would be safe or feasible due to one of the four environmental factors considered – existed for 38% of the time on average. During the winter season, the response gap existed 65% of the time. This analysis did not consider ice conditions, which could exacerbate the response gap in areas where sea ice may be present.


Arctic conditions increase risk of spill and need for solution



Nuka Research and Planning Group 7

(October, World Wildlife Foundation, “Oil Spill Response Challenges in Arctic Waters”, http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/wherewework/arctic/WWFBinaryitem24363.pdf)
Arctic conditions, such as dynamic ice cover, low temperatures, reduced visibility or complete darkness, high winds, and extreme storms add to the probability of an accident or error that might cause a spill to occur (Anderson and Talley, 1995). There are several characteristics of the arctic environment and arctic wildlife species that exacerbate the potentially negative consequence of an oil spill to arctic waters. Oil persists longer in arctic conditions because it evaporates more slowly or may be trapped in or under ice and is thus less accessible to bacterial degradation. Population recovery after an incident may be slowed because many species have relatively long life spans and slower generational turnover (AMAP 1998). Recent research published in the U.S. suggests that long-term consequences of oil spills to temperate and sub-arctic coastal environments may persist well beyond initial projections. Compared to the world’s temperate oceans, arctic marine waters have lower temperatures and lower salinity profiles. Typical winter conditions include cold temperatures, the formation and movement of sea ice, extreme and unpredictable weather conditions, and long periods of darkness. Any of these conditions may increase the risks of a significant accidental oil spill while limiting the potential effectiveness of cleanup options.

Risk of disaster high now



Apps 12

Peter Apps, Reuters Political Risk Correspondent Tue Apr 3, 2012 “Melting Arctic may redraw global geopolitical map” http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/03/us-arctic-resources-idUSBRE8320DR20120403. Date accessed 6-27-12


"I see the Arctic as ultimately more of a venue for cooperation than confrontation," says Christian le Miere, senior fellow for maritime affairs at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies. "China, Northern Europe, Russia will all benefit in particular from the new sea routes. The only real losers will be countries much further south that cannot take advantage." For U.S. Coast Guard captain Bert, having spent much of her career in the north, the greatest real enemies remain the vast distances, harsh climate and lack of resources. Even with the icecaps gone for some of the year, icebergs will still drift through shipping lanes and harsh storms and poor maps provide ever present danger. "I don't worry about a war in the Arctic," she says. "But I do worry that we're not prepared to deal with a major disaster there. No one is, but as more people go there, it becomes much more likely.".

Ext – plan solves spills

Heavy icebreakers are key to oil spill response, cleanup, and search-and-rescue



Rufe 12

(Roger T., 5.27.12, The Portland Press Herald, “Oil Spill in Arctic Ocean would tax our capabilities”, http://www.pressherald.com/opinion/oil-spill-in-arctic-ocean-would-tax-our-capabilities_2012-05-27.html)
The second anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon disaster passed with little fanfare last month. But with our government on the brink of allowing the oil industry to explore in America's remote Arctic Ocean this summer, it is worth revisiting some of the lessons learned from the biggest oil spill in the nation's history. Stopping that spill took three months, even though it occurred in the relatively calm waters of the Gulf of Mexico near Coast Guard stations, cleanup equipment and abundant shoreside support. Subsequently, I was asked to chair a panel of federal, state, industry and environmental experts to review our nation's response. Our recommendations are especially important for the Arctic. The Arctic Ocean has one of the harshest climates on Earth. Even in the summer, conditions are volatile, with sudden, violent storms and shifting sea ice. The shoreline is sparsely populated, with no roads connecting the eight main villages to each other or to the rest of Alaska. The nearest major seaport is 1,300 nautical miles away; the nearest Coast Guard air station is 950 air miles. A spill cleanup effort could take weeks to mount and then could suffer endless delays because of foul weather. Although preventing and containing an oil spill in these extreme conditions is the priority, we must also have a plan for response. After the Gulf, we witnessed firsthand that the middle of an emergency is not the time to come up with one. Fully developed and detailed procedures, agreed to in advance, are essential to an effective response. These must address the impact of a spill on environmentally sensitive areas and species, as well as on local economies. This requires a great deal of scientific research along with full and early consultation with indigenous peoples. After all, it is their livelihoods that are at risk. Even then, response plans are only as good as the men and women who will implement them. So it is critical that they provide for an adequate number of trained personnel and proper equipment to deal with a worst-case scenario. If this was a problem in the early going of the Gulf spill, imagine what a challenge it could be in the Arctic. Finally, such contingency planning must be tested in real-life conditions. Although we learned from the Gulf disaster what is needed for an effective spill response plan, we are on the brink of drilling in a much more remote and extreme location without these hard-won lessons in place. Important habitat and key subsistence areas in the U.S. Arctic Ocean have yet to be set off-limits. The U.S. Coast Guard's two heavy-duty icebreakers -- needed for search-and-rescue missions and to support oil spill response and recovery -- have outlived their original life span; the only remaining ice-capable vessel was built for scientific research and is not adequate for heavy icebreaking.

Companies inadequacies on oil spill are attributed to knowledge gaps – investment in science and research is key



Kollewe & Terry 12

cites report from Lyods(Julia, Macalister) The Guardian, Wednesday 11 April 2012((Arctic oil rush will ruin ecosystem, warns Lloyd's of London)(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/12/lloyds-london-warns-risks-arctic-oil-drilling)



The Lloyd's report says the "inadequacies" of both company and government in the event of a disaster were demonstrated after the Macondo blowout. A smaller company than BP, faced with estimated $40bn clean-up and compensation costs, might have gone bankrupt, leaving the state to foot the bill, it notes.Lloyd's says it is essential that there is more investment in science and research to "close knowledge gaps, reduce uncertainties and manage risks". It calls for sizeable investment in infrastructure and surveillance to enable "safe economic activity" and argues that "full-scale exercises based on worst-case scenarios of environmental disaster should be run by companies".




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