Gdi 2010 Energy Reform Politics da


Warming Impact Calc- Threat Multiplier



Download 0.59 Mb.
Page38/58
Date18.10.2016
Size0.59 Mb.
#1194
1   ...   34   35   36   37   38   39   40   41   ...   58

Warming Impact Calc- Threat Multiplier


Global warming causes resource wars and is a threat multiplier- worst impact

Knickerbocker 7 (Brad, Staff writer at the Christian Science Monitor, Apr 19, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0419/p02s01-usgn.html , Christian Science Monitor) ET

For years, the debate over global warming has focused on the three big "E's": environment, energy, and economic impact. This week it officially entered the realm of national security threats and avoiding wars as well. A platoon of retired US generals and admirals warned that global warming "presents significant national security challenges to the United States." The United Nations Security Council held its first ever debate on the impact of climate change on conflicts. And in Congress, a bipartisan bill would require a National Intelligence Estimate by all federal intelligence agencies to assess the security threats posed by global climate change. Many experts view climate change as a "threat multiplier" that intensifies instability around the world by worsening water shortages, food insecurity, disease, and flooding that lead to forced migration. That's the thrust of a 35-page report (PDF) by 11 admirals and generals this week issued by the Alexandria, Va.-based national security think tank The CNA Corporation. The study, titled National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, predicts: "Projected climate change will seriously exacerbate already marginal living standards in many Asian, African, and Middle Eastern nations, causing widespread political instability and the likelihood of failed states.... The chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide, and the growth of terrorism. "The U.S. may be drawn more frequently into these situations, either alone or with allies, to help provide stability before conditions worsen and are exploited by extremists. The U.S. may also be called upon to undertake stability and reconstruction efforts once a conflict has begun, to avert further disaster and reconstitute a stable environment." "We will pay for this one way or another," retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, former commander of American forces in the Middle East and one of the report's authors, told the Los Angeles Times. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today … or we'll pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives." As quoted in the Associated Press, British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, who presided over the UN meeting in New York April 17, posed the question "What makes wars start?" The answer: "Fights over water. Changing patterns of rainfall. Fights over food production, land use. There are few greater potential threats to our economies ... but also to peace and security itself." This is the concern behind a recently introduced bipartisan bill by Sens. Richard Durbin (D) of Illinois and Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska. It would require all US intelligence agencies – the CIA, the NSA, the Pentagon, and the FBI – to conduct a comprehensive review of potential security threats related to climate change around the world.

Impacts- A2: Adaptation


And, warming happens to fast, no chance of adaptation

Costello 8 (Anthony, co-director of the Institute for Global Health at University College London, Oxford University Press, 8) ET

Climate change affects all ecosystems. Carbon dioxide will reach two to three times its mid-19th-century level by 2100 leading to major changes in seasonal temperatures and rainfall patterns. Normally with this sort of climate change animals and plants would simply migrate with their preferred climate. However, the rate of human-induced climate change is so rapid that many plant species cannot migrate fast enough and also in many places human beings already occupy the space into which the ecosystem would migrate. Ecosystems most at risk are alpine meadows, cloud forests, arctic tundra, and coral reefs.

Impact Helper – US K/ Climate


And, US leadership is necessary for world action to act on climate change

PEGG 8

(J.R., Staff Writer for the Environmental News Servicem The Environmental News Wire, Feb 1, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2008/2008-02-01-10.asp) ET



The head of the United Nations scientific climate panel spoke with U.S. lawmakers Wednesday, encouraging them lead to the world in cooling the overheated planet. "We really don't have a moment to lose," said Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC. The massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions needed to avoid serious disruptions to Earth's climate system are impossible without U.S. leadership, Dr. Pachauri told members of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. "It is essential for the U.S. to take action," said Pachauri, who also spoke at a public briefing Wednesday afternoon convened by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. The United States is responsible for some 22 percent of current greenhouse gas emissions. Although China recently emerged as the leading emitter, U.S. emissions are four times greater than China's on a per capita basis. Despite broad criticism from across the world, President George W. Bush and his administration have rejected mandatory limits on greenhouse gases. And many U.S. lawmakers remain reluctant to commit their nation to deep cuts without similar obligations from China, India and other developing nations. The IPCC chairman said that view is misplaced. "The rest of the world looks to the U.S. for leadership [but] the perception round the world is that the U.S. has not been very active in this area," Pachauri said, adding that strong action would "undoubtedly reestablish confidence in U.S. leadership on critical global issues." Pachauri presented the House committee with an overview of the key messages contained in recent reports issued by the IPCC panel, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. The IPCC includes some 2,500 scientists from across the United States and around the world. The panel does no original research but rather assesses the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. A native of India, Dr. Pachauri is an economist and engineer who has served on the Board of Directors of the Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., a Fortune 500 company, and on the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India. He has taught at several American universitites, including the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. Pachauri told lawmakers that greenhouse gas emissions must peak in 2015 - and drop 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 - if the world is to keep global average temperatures from rising above 2.4 degrees Celsius. Without such restraint, the world faces a variety of potential troubling humanitarian and environmental problems. Pachauri cited concern over rising sea levels, the increased frequency of drought, heat waves and severe storms, as well as threats to agriculture and adverse impacts on the environment. Committee chair Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, said the work of the IPCC "highlights our moral obligation to reduce global warming pollution and prepare for those impacts that have become unavoidable." It is time for U.S. lawmakers to ensure the nation is a "leader, not a laggard" in the fight against global warming, Markey said. But it is unclear how serious U.S. lawmakers are about tackling global warming - only five of the nine Democrats on the panel attended the hearing and none of the committee's six Republicans were present.


Download 0.59 Mb.

Share with your friends:
1   ...   34   35   36   37   38   39   40   41   ...   58



The database is protected by copyright ©ininet.org 2024
send message
    Main page
Guide
Instructions
Report
Request
Review