UQ: Will Pass A2: “Immigration Before Energy”
Immigration won’t be introduced- not out of committee
Goldenberg 4/26 [Suzanne US environment correspondent 2010, The Guardian, Lexis] KLS
Reid's office offered a carefully couched reply to Graham's accusations, saying he was committed to both energy and immigration reform. "Senator Reid is prepared to move either to the floor as soon as they are ready," a spokesman emailed. However, he noted that immigration would need "significant committee work that has not yet been done" - suggesting energy might indeed still come first.
UQ: Will Pass A2: Republicans Oppose
And republicans don’t oppose- they support two key requirements
Jenkins June 30th (Jesse, director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute, http://theenergycollective.com/jessejenkins/38947/seconds-clock-democrats-may-waste-last-chance-clean-energy-win , 6-30-10, The Energy Collective) ET
Herein lies the last opportunity for Democrats to score a win for energy reform. To date, Republicans have backed a number of key Senate proposals that collectively offer the foundations for a bipartisan clean energy bill that could achieve actual progress, despite the limited time to act in the crowded Congressional calendar [1 - see notes at end for more detail]: Clean electricity generation: Republicans have backed both a (modest but first-ever) requirement that utilities nationwide purchase a portion of their electricity from renewable energy sources [2], as well as a more aggressive clean electricity requirement that would make nuclear power and carbon capture and storage at fossil fuels plants eligible alongside renewables [3]. Democrats have an opportunity to counter-offer with a slightly more expansive proposal, calling, say, for 25% of all U.S. electricity to come from new, zero-carbon electricity sources by 2020 and 35% by 2030, then negotiate from there. The end result would be a mandate to transform the U.S. electricity sector, putting American utilities on a path to a low-carbon future.
Republicans will back- empirics
Jenkins June 30th (Jesse, director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute, http://theenergycollective.com/jessejenkins/38947/seconds-clock-democrats-may-waste-last-chance-clean-energy-win , 6-30-10, The Energy Collective) ET
Similarly, Republicans have consistently championed financial incentives to deploy zero-carbon electricity sources. They, of course prefer nuclear power, but this offer still provides an opportunity for Democrats to counter. Instead of $10 billion to back loan guarantees for just nuclear power plants [4], Democrats could propose a similar (or even greater) amount of funding to capitalize a Clean Energy Deployment Administration capable of using a variety of flexible credit enhancement and financing mechanisms to spur the deployment of numerous innovative zero-carbon energy sources, including nuclear power, but also a suite of other cutting edge clean technologies [5].
UQ- Will Pass- A2: Republicans Take Majority
Reform can still pass even if Republicans take the majority – Public largely supports.
Lawrence 6/23/10(Jill, Senior correspondent for Politics Daily, “Why Energy Reform Is Likely This Year, and Six Forms it Could Take”)AQB
Even if Republicans sweep control of both chambers and are poised to take over in January, end-of-year energy action may not be dead. That's because out in America, people want to see changes. Republican strategist Frank Luntz has released research that shows broad bipartisan support for holding polluters accountable and for ending the U.S. addiction to foreign oil. Many polls show majorities across party lines think the government should regulate emissions to reduce global warming. It all comes down to politics: Whether cap-and-trade – a market-driven idea once supported by prominent Republicans – can be transformed into something smaller, simpler and more appealing to fence-sitters once the heat of the election season has cooled.
**Uniqueness- Won’t Pass**
UQ- Won’t Pass- Bipartisan
Republicans and Democrats wary of passing energy reform in wake of oil spill
Mascaro 6/17 [Lisa, Staff Writer, 2010, Los Angeles Times, Lexis]
Brown has said he would be unwilling to support such a system during the economic downturn. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is among several Republican senators invited to the bipartisan meeting at the White House next week, said Obama was trying to put clean energy on the agenda, but "whether he follows through beyond the speech remains to be seen." Showing the difficulty Obama faces in winning support from even his own party for major energy reform, Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska is among several Democratic lawmakers who said they did not see the connection between the spill in the gulf and the need for a carbon pricing system.
UQ: Won’t Pass- Byrd
And energy reform won’t pass- Byrd’s death and bank tax
Montopoli June 29th ( Brian, CBS news poll analyst, CBS News Politics, 6-29-10, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20009186-503544.html) ET
Following marathon negotiations at the end of last week, it appeared that historic financial reform legislation was on the cusp of becoming law. All that was left before the bill went to President Obama for signature was a full vote in the Senate and House to pass it - and because of the negotiations, it appeared the votes were there for passage. Then Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia died - and, in a situation reminiscent of the sudden imperiling of the health care bill after Republican Sen. Scott Brown's special election victory in Massachusetts, what looked like a done deal suddenly wasn't. The loss of what would have been the 60th vote for the legislation left Senate Democrats scrambling to pick off one more member - a process that has thus far not gone particularly well. West Virginia Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has set no timetable for naming Byrd's successor, and with Democrats working to pass the bill this week, they cannot depend on a yes vote from the seat long held by Byrd. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid worked today and yesterday to find a vote to replace Byrd's, but he met with little success: Democratic Sens. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Maria Cantwell of Washington stood by their opposition to the bill, leaving Reid to win over every member of a small group of Republicans who have previously voted for the legislation. That group includes Brown, as well as Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine and Chuck Grassley of Iowa. But with the late addition of a $19 billion fee assessed to banks (inserted into the legislation in the conference report), Brown made clear that he was no longer on board. "This tax was not in the Senate version of the bill, which I supported," he said in a letter today to Senate Committee on Banking Chairman Chris Dodd and House Committee on Financial Resources Chairman Barney Frank. "If the final version of this bill contains these higher taxes, I will not support it." With 60 votes no longer in sight, Democrats are reopening the conference committee today to change how to pay for implementing the new regulations - that is, replace what Brown calls a "bank tax" with another funding source in order to win back Brown's vote. (Doing this would also help hang on to the votes of Snowe, Collins and Grassley, who have expressed concerns about the bank fee
And, climate change won’t pass - byrd’s death
Duckman June 30th (Justin, staff writer, http://www.talkradionews.com/news/2010/6/30/byrds-death-threatens-democrats-agenda.html , Talk Media News,) ET
Sen. Robert Byrd’s (D-W.V.) death will likely imperil several important pieces of legislation on the Democrats’ agenda. Most pressing is Wall Street Reform, which was initially expected to arrive on the President’s desk before Congress leaves for the July 4th recess. However, Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), expected to be the sole Republican vote in favor of overhauling the nation’s financial regulatory system, wavered in his support after the conference committee added a tax on banks to offset the bill’s $19 billion price tag. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) removed the tax, but Brown has still not committed to voting for the bill. Now, with the loss of Byrd, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will need to secure the support of two Republicans in order to provide the 60 votes needed to sidestep a filibuster, a difficult task in such a partisan political environment where every vote counts. Reid’s attempt to pass an extension for unemployment benefits has hit a similar snag.
“If we had Senator Byrd’s replacement we would have 60,” Reid said during a press conference Wednesday. Reid added that he has the support of two unnamed Republicans, but is seeking one more. The push for an energy bill could also be hindered by the loss of West Virginia Democrat. Byrd heralded from a state that is economically dependant on the coal industry, but was nevertheless considered a guaranteed yes vote. Byrd’s eventual replacement will likely be less comfortable with current forms of the legislation, especially if it runs the risk of harming the state’s coal workers. Attempts to rally Republican support for an energy bill have thus far fallen flat. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) initially helped craft legislation with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), but dropped his support. Gaining two Republicans or convincing Byrd’s replacement to back the bill will likely prompt Democrats to proceed with weakened provisions. Byrd, who died early Monday morning, was the longest serving member of Congress in U.S. history. West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin (D) will appoint a replacement to fill the rest of Byrd’s term.
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