Link (Hurts Turkey-US, Helps Turkey-Russo)

Link (Hurts Turkey-US, Helps Turkey-Russo)

The most common U.S. interpretation of the joint Turkish-Brazilian peace plan for Iran, as well as Ankara's falling out with Israel over the latter's assault on the Gaza flotilla, is that Turkey is "looking East." Rationales run the gamut from rising Islamism to U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' explanation that the West alienated Turkey when it blocked Ankara from joining the European Union (EU). While Turkey's rise does indeed reflect internal developments in that country, its growing influence mirrors the ebb of American power, a consequence of the catastrophic policies Washington has followed in the Middle East and Central Asia. From Ankara's point of view, it is picking up the tab for the chaos in Iraq, the aggressive policies of the Israeli government, and the growing tensions around the Iranian nuclear program. As Sedat Laciner, director of the International Strategic Resource Center in Ankara, told The New York Times, "The Western countries do things and Turkey pays the bill." While the Cold War is over, argues Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, "a new global" order has yet to emerge. Until those "mechanisms" are in place, "It will therefore fall largely to nation-states to meet and create solutions for the global political, cultural, and economic turmoil." Davutoglu's observation about "a new global" order is an implicit critique of a UN Security Council dominated by the veto power of the "Big Five": the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China. Increasingly countries like Turkey, Brazil, and India are unhappy with the current setup. They either want a place at the table or a reduction of the Council's power. The latest Iran sanctions passed 12 to 2 (with one abstention) in the Council. The sanctions would have failed a vote in the General Assembly. Turkey has expanded ties with Iran and worked closely with Russia on energy and trade.  It has even tried to thaw relations with Armenia. It has mediated between Damascus and Tel Aviv, brokered peace talks between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and Serbians and Bosnians in the Balkans, and tried to reduce tension in the Caucasus. It has also opened 15 embassies in Africa and two in Latin America.

Internal Link-Trades off with Turkey/Russo Relations

US-Turkey relations trade off with Turkey-Russo relations, this seriously damages the Caucus pipelines

Enghdal 9, (F William, Apr 16, 2009. Editor for Asia Times, Middle East, http://www.atime s.com/atimes/Middle_East/KD16Ak01.html)

Turkey is the key link in this complex game of geopolitical balance of power between Washington and Moscow. If Turkey decides to collaborate with Russia, Georgia's position becomes very insecure and Azerbaijan's possible pipeline route to Europe is blocked. If Turkey decides to cooperate with Washington and at the same time reaches a stable agreement with Armenia under US guidance, Russia's entire position in the Caucasus is weakened and an alternative route for natural gas to Europe becomes available, reducing Russian leverage against Western Europe. 

Internal Link (Independent Turkey Bad)

Independent Turkey leads to cooperation with China and Russia

Sariibrahimoglu 1 (Lale, Eurasia analyst, Turkish Daily News, “US fears Turkey becoming another Israel,” http://gbulten.ssm.gov.tr/arsiv/2001/06/12/01_1.htm) MJ
U.S. sources speaking to the Turkish Daily News say that Washington was ready to give Turkey 90 percent of the software source code of mission computer systems. "We (U.S.) can not transfer the remaining 10 percent of the software source code because it would reveal the vulnerability of the weapons systems," said the same source. Turkey has been negotiating with U.S. Bell for the coproduction of 145 helicopters in three batches worth about $4 billion. U.S. fears that Turkey may set an example by becoming another Israel, which built its indigenous systems on U.S. products but then started cooperating with many countries including U.S.'s adversary China, enlarging its options in developing indigenous technologies. The United States has mounted pressure on Israel to stop arms exports, as well as cooperation with countries like China and Russia. The U.S. pressures being imposed on Ankara come at a time when Turkey has been signalling closer military ties with China and South Korea, Russia is also very keen to enter the Turkish arms market in terms of coproduction projects.

US-Turkey Relations Good (Terrorism)

US-Turkey Relations key to fight terrorism

Cook 2 (Steven, Brookings Institute Research Fellow, “U.S.-Turkey Relations and the War on Terroris,” http://bianet.org/english/english/6013-u-s--turkey-relations-and-the-war-on-terroris) MJ

In the hours before U.S. and British forces first launched attacks on Taliban and al Qaeda targets, Vice President Dick Cheney telephoned Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to inform him of operation "Enduring Freedom." Sezer, in response and befitting the ties between close NATO partners, underscored Turkey's support and wished the United States success. The phone call reflects Turkey's importance to the United States as Ankara has become a pivotal ally in Washington's new battle against terrorism. While much of the Bush administration's diplomatic efforts have focused on the Arab Middle East, Turkey-a NATO ally, Muslim country, and aspirant to full-membership in the European Union-can offer the United States support in a range of areas where Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states are either unable or reluctant to assist. Unlike Washington's Arab allies, Turkey has signaled clearly to the Bush administration its belief that a confluence of interests in fighting global terrorism exists between Washington and Ankara. The Turkish government needed little persuading that Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network were responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. On October 3, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, in reference to Washington's presentation of evidence linking bin Laden to the attacks told the Turkish press, "The fact that the U.S. found it persuasive persuades us also." Moreover, once the United States and Great Britain began military operations in Afghanistan, Ankara apparently dropped whatever reservations it may have harbored concerning its own commitment of forces to the effort. Turkey's largest circulation daily, Hurriyet, reported that after a meeting in the early hours of October 8, Turkey's political and military leaders affirmed that they would support any NATO decision made within the framework of Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty. Sezer's words on the eve of war-as well as those of Ecevit, Foreign Minister Ismail Cem, Chief of Staff Hussein Kivrikoglu, and other Turkish leaders-should not, however, be interpreted as blanket Turkish support for the U.S. action in Southwest Asia and the Middle East. Since September 11, the Turkish leadership has fashioned a policy that can only be characterized as guarded-receptive to Washington in some areas, but clearly wary of others. To be sure, Ankara is and will remain a valuable ally of the United States, yet it is important to recognize that Turkey's fragile domestic political situation and complex regional interests dictate caution. Underneath the public bilateral assurances to each other, there will be significant sensitivities and pressure points in the U.S.-Turkish relationship as the situation in Afghanistan develops and Washington more fully elaborates its practical response to terrorism.
A terrorist getting a hold of nuclear materials is the largest and most probable threat of our time

Siddiqi 4/16 (Shibil, Fellow with the Center for the Study of Global Power and Politics at Trent University, “Terrorism: The nuclear summit’s ‘straw man’,” Asia Times Online, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LD16Ak02.html) MJ

American President Barack Obama gathered 47 national delegations for the first Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Washington on April 12 and 13. It was the largest gathering of world leaders in Washington since the close of World War II. The scale of the summit was meant to impress the gravity of the subject matter. In Obama's words, "This is an unprecedented gathering to address an unprecedented threat": the prevention of nuclear terrorism. In trademark style, Obama offered rhetorical flourishes to fit the occasion: "Two decades after the Cold War we face a cruel irony of history. The risk of nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of nuclear attack as gone up". The president said that a tiny scrap of plutonium the size of an apple was now the biggest threat to world stability, with "just the tiniest amount of plutonium" in the wrong hands posing potential for catastrophe. However, the president's assessment of global nuclear threats paper over some basic realities. The threat of nuclear confrontation remains dangerously high despite the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) with Russia and America's passive-aggressive Nuclear Posture Review. This is particularly true along the nuclear fault-lines in the Middle East and South Asia which have existed since the Cold War. Perhaps a "dirty bomb" made out of a handful of plutonium or other radiological material forms the most significant "nuclear" threat to the US. But outside of this Western-centric world-view, it is the threat of nuclear attack or exchange in the Middle East and South Asia - home to nearly a fourth of the world's population - that clearly remains the largest global nuclear threat.

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