Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Pointer/Gordon/Watts/Samuels Turkey Neg
Turkey is afraid of Iran-wants to keep US TNWs
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- Many officials within NATO are inclined to draw down the number of US tactical nuclear weapons Europe.
- The dimmer these prospects look, the greater is the likelihood of that Turkey will chose to hedge its political, economic, and security bets by seeking a nuclear weapons-option of its own
- Turkey is being threatened by Iran
- Turkey Fears Nuclear Iran-would lead to regional catastrophe
LinkTurkey is afraid of Iran-wants to keep US TNWs Sokolski 7 (Henry, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, “What Nuclear Challenges Might the EU Meet?,” http://www.npolicy.org/files/20070616-Sokolski-Talk-AixEnProvence-Conference.pdf) MJ Many officials within NATO are inclined to draw down the number of US tactical nuclear weapons Europe. If such reductions were occasioned by Russia’s reduction or elimination of the number of such weapons it has deployed, by a NATO commitment to prepare for the possible redeployment such weapons in time of war or crisis, and by deployment of European missile defenses against the emerging Iranian missile threat, then the optimal number of forward-deployed US tactical systems might be zero. One country that might disagree with this view, though, is Turkey. It is trying to figure out how to live with a nuclear weapons armed neighbor, Iran; is disappointed by its inability to be fully integrated into the EU; and is toying with getting its own nuclear capabilities. Whether or not Turkey does choose to go its own way and acquire a nuclear weapons-option of its own will depend on several factors, including Ankara’s relations with Washington, Brussels, and Tehran. To a very significant degree, though, it also will depend on whether or not the EU Members States are serious about letting Turkey join the EU. The dimmer these prospects look, the greater is the likelihood of that Turkey will chose to hedge its political, economic, and security bets by seeking a nuclear weapons-option of its own. This poses a difficult choice for the EU. Many key members are opposed to letting Turkey join the EU. There are arguments to favor this position. Yet, if Turkey should conclude that its interests are best served by pursuing such a nuclear weapons-option, it is almost certain to fortify the conviction of Egypt, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia to do the same. This will result in the building up a nuclear powder keg on Europe’s doorstep and significantly increase the prospect for nuclear terrorism and war. Turkey is being threatened by Iran Kalyoncu 5 (Mehmet, international relations analyst, “How to Handle Turkey’s Legitimate Nuclear Aspirations (Turkey with Nuclear Weapons?, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1527797/posts) MJ It is more obvious than ever that as long as it is headed by a man who does not hesitate to publicly pronounce his aspirations to wipe another sovereign country off the map, nuclear Iran will continue to be a major threat to Turkey. Even if Iran does not directly target Turkey, its nuclear confrontation with third parties equally threatens Turkey’s national security because the effects of nuclear warfare are not limited geographically as in conventional warfare. In this case, Iran’s confrontation with ever-vigilant Israel is a perfect threat for Turkey. Iran is rapidly rolling back from former President Khatami’s tolerant discourse, towards the revolutionary discourse of the 1980’s. On October 26, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared the annihilation of the Zionist regime as one of his government’s priorities during his speech at the “World without Zionism” conference. Referring to Iran’s revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini, Mr. Ahmedinejad insisted “As the Imam said; Israel must be wiped off the map.”[i] One could reasonably attribute such an extreme statement to Mr. Ahmadinejad’s political inexperience and ignorance of diplomacy. Nonetheless, it represents a major shift for Iran from Mr. Khatami’s moderation back to the revolutionary doctrine. More importantly, Mr. Ahmedinejad is not exhibiting an attitude original to him and his government. As he puts it in his statements, he justifies his anti-Israeli attitude by referring to earlier statements of Iran’s revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini. That makes the case even more critical and threatening. Both Tel-Aviv and Washington have responded in a relatively calmer mood to Mr. Ahmedinejad’s radical statements. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev, likening Mr. Ahmedinejad to another extremist and Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar, noted “[t]he problem with these extremists is that they followed through on their violent declarations with violent actions.”[ii] Similarly, White House press secretary Scott McClellan added “[I]t confirms what we have been saying about the regime in Iran. It underscores the concerns we have about Iran’s nuclear intentions.”[iii] Although calm, these responses might set the stage for another legitimized “freedom operation” next to Turkey’s border. Even if Turkey is not likely to be a direct target of any nuclear attack, it may still want to have nuclear weapons to deter attacks between its neighbors that would indirectly and yet extensively affect Turkey, especially indirect effects such as trans-border conflicts and forced migrations. A nuclear arms race reciprocated by other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq would only increase Turkey’s legitimate desire to obtain nuclear weapons. However, just as was the case in the 1980s and 1990s, Turkey is highly likely to face strong international opposition against its nuclear aspirations, most notably from the US and the EU. LinkTurkey Fears Nuclear Iran-would lead to regional catastrophe Bell 9 (Alexandra, Project Manager at the Ploughshares Fund, “Turkey’s Nuclear Crossroads,” http://www.good.is/post/turkeys-nuclear-crossroads/) MJ I recently returned from a trip to Turkey, coordinated by the Truman National Security Project, an institute that recruits, trains, and positions a new generation of Americans to lead on national security. In discussions with government officials, civil servants, retired military personnel, academics, and businessmen, two things became clear: First, that it is difficult to be positioned at a geographical and societal crossroads, and second, that you are stuck with your neighbors. The Turks look around them and see conflicts and threats in most directions. I was interested in what the Turks saw when they looked towards Tehran. Specifically, I asked about the threat, perceived or real, from the Iranian nuclear program. The answers varied sharply. Some dismissed the threat, noting that the Turks and the Persians had not been in conflict for 500 years. Others shuddered at the mention of a nuclear Iran. But regardless of the official line that Iran is an important trading partner and a regional ally, I think the Turks would not abide a nuclear Iran. In fact, when asked directly about the response to Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon, a high-ranking official from the Foreign Ministry said that Turkey would follow suit—immediately. I took this as a confirmation of the oft-repeated theory that if Iran attains a nuclear weapon, surrounding nations will acquire them too, resulting in a “cascade of proliferation.” Throwing multiple nuclear arsenals into a region with many long-standing tensions, disputed borders, and conflicting ethno-religious sects is a recipe for catastrophe. 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