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Twenty years ago, Dertouzos, Lester and Solow (1989) recognized the importance of manufacturing industry for the US economy. In “Made in America”, they stressed that “[t]he United States … has no choice but to continue competing in the world market for manufactures. …, the best way for Americans to share in rising world prosperity is to retain on American soil those industries that have high and rapidly rising productivity. Manufacturing, and high-technology manufacturing in particular, belongs in this category” (p.40). Their argument is based on the innovation intensity of manufacturing industry. To quote, “A related fact is that manufacturing firms account for virtually all of the research and development done by American industry. They thus generate most of the technological innovations adopted both inside and outside their own industry. High technology manufacturing industries account for amount three-quarters of all funding for research and development and the other manufacturing industries account for most of the rest. The roots of much of the technological progress responsible for long-term economic growth can ultimately be traced to the nation’s manufacturing base” (Dertouzos, Lester and Solow 1989, pp.40-41).
Looking at the experience of OECD countries, it seems that there is an inverted U-shape relationship between the share of manufacturing and the level of income (see Figure 3 .4). At the initial stage, as countries increases its share of manufacturing, the income is rising. At certain point of the income, these economies shift to become more services oriented economy. Looking at the relationship between the share of manufacturing and the growth of income is quite revealing. There is a slight positive correlation between the share of manufacturing and growth for OECD countries and also for East Asian economies (Figure 3 .5 and Figure 3 .6). This may account in part for the slower growth of higher income countries and the continuing importance of manufacturing industry for growth.34
Even though the manufacturing industry now employs just 10 percent of the workforce and produces less than a fifth of GDP in the United States (and in other developed countries), the financial crisis started in the late 2008 has focused attention on the role of manufacturing industry in restoring growth and enabling the United States and other countries in narrowing trade gaps.35
Figure 3.4: Relationship between the share of manufacturing and per capita income, 1960-2007
Note: the data includes all the current OECD members (30 countries) between 1960 and 2007 for which data were available in World Development Indicators.
Source: Authors’ calculations
Figure 3.5: Relationship between the share of manufacturing and growth for OECD countries, 1961-2007
Note: the data includes all the current OECD members (30 countries) between 1961 and 2007 for which data were available in World Development Indicators.
Source: Authors’ calculations
Figure 3.6: Relationship between the share of manufacturing and growth for East Asian economies, 1961-2007
Note: The economies included are China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan (China), Thailand between 1961 and 2007 for which data were available in World Development Indicators.
Source: Authors’ calculations
I. Why a Broad Manufacturing Base Matters
By maintaining the share of manufacturing in the 25-30 percent range,36 Shanghai could capitalize on gains in industrial productivity and enlarge the scope for innovation.37 However, the global economic slowdown caused by the financial crisis which erupted in 2008 will jeopardize the survival of segments of industry which are heavily dependent on exports. World trade grew by just 4 percent in real terms during 2008 and is forecast to decline by 9 percent in 2009 (WTO 2009). The adjustments required of countries such as the United States to correct their external and/or internal resource imbalances could also presage a period of slow growth in global trade in manufactures and the persistence of excess capacity in a number of industries over the near term. During 2009-2010, exports are likely to contribute far less to Shanghai’s growth than in the past, FDI will diminish and there will be less technology transfer through the medium of imports. Shanghai’s remaining low tech and labor intensive industries are likely to suffer rapid erosion in competitiveness and to either close down or relocate elsewhere. Some shrinkage of the manufacturing sector seems unavoidable over the near term. But an expansion of the tradable services – even it is feasible in the face of weaker domestic and foreign demand is unlikely to restore growth and employment in the short run, and if it increasingly displaces manufacturing, will be detrimental to growth over the longer term.
If Shanghai’s objective is achieve rising incomes based increasingly on gains arising from a productively networked and innovative economy, there is no substitute for manufacturing. But the future of a diversified and growing industrial base will depend upon measures taken to bolster the competitiveness of mature industries with considerable potential in global markets. It will also be a function of the entry of manufacturing firms into new industrial sub fields which can remain profitable over the longer term.38 Furthermore, such entry depends upon spatial development policies in urban and suburban areas. Industrial hollowing is not inevitable but once it gathers momentum it is difficult to reverse.
Manufacturing offers the densest backward and forward linkages among the various economic activities. From the input-output table for the United States, it can be seen that manufacturing industry is the largest consumer of other intermediate inputs, consuming about 30 percent of all the intermediate inputs (see Table 3 .13). It is the largest consumer of the agriculture, mining, utilities, manufacturing, and transportation sectors and of warehousing, wholesale, retail, professional and business services, and of scrap material. Finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) consumes about 14 percent of the intermediate inputs, the second largest overall consumer after the manufacturing sector. However, FIRE consumes only 2.4 percent of manufacturing output for intermediate use.39 The bulk of intermediate inputs consumed by FIRE are provided by construction, real estate being the largest consumer of the output of the construction industry, FIRE itself, arts and entertainment, and other services. As in the U.S, the manufacturing industry is China’s largest consumer of other intermediate inputs; consuming 44 percent of all the intermediate inputs (see Table 3 .14). Unlike the United States, China’s banking and insurance sectors are major consumers of manufacturing output.
The Case for Complex Capital Goods
As cities ascend the income ladder, the attractiveness of certain types of manufacturing industries increases. One set of activities are those whose profitability rests upon the slow accumulation of learning, tacit knowledge and specialized skills. This is a type of industry that produces customized, complex capital goods or engages in small batch production of customized high value items. Industries producing complex capital goods – e.g., plant equipment, power generating equipment and transport equipment – have significant backward linkages and involve a host of specialized suppliers, which frequently cluster near the main assemblers, collaborate in joint R&D programs to meet specific needs of end users, and in producing new generations of equipment.40 With respect to innovation in the capital goods and components industries, Cooke and others (2007, p.57) note that “these are characterized by a systematic knowledge. In such settings, the application of existing knowledge or the new combination of available knowledge may lead to innovations. This often occurs in the need to solve actual problems on the shop floor or in the interaction with key customers or users or suppliers. Research and development are generally less important and university industry links are less frequent. Knowledge is created … through an inductive process of testing, experimentation or through practical work.”
The revealed comparative advantage of Germany,41 Japan and Korea still lies in these industries. Such industries also derive substantial revenues from after sales services, upgrading or refurbishing existing equipment (e.g. aircraft, earthmoving equipment, engines, and railways) and by supplying spare parts for long lived capital goods. Global suppliers of complex goods can sustain a flotilla of affiliated firms providing well paid jobs in an urban environment. In line with this reasoning, The 11th Five Year Plan gave priority to the complex capital goods sector, calling for the market share of domestic independent brand owners to exceed 50 percent of the automobile and machinery industries by 2010. Progress while adequate, has fallen short of plan targets with market shares of domestic firms being 26 percent and 31 percent respectively in 2007 (World Bank 2008b).
As noted above and demonstrated by the recent experience of the U.S., Germany and Japan, complex capital goods, components and electrical equipment are among the industrial products most suited for capital abundant economies with a skilled and high wage workforce.42 This is apparent from the estimates of the revealed comparative advantages of these countries (see Table 3 .5 to Table 3 .8),43 the top 10 export goods from Germany (see Table 3 .9), and also from the rising share of these exports (see Table 3 .10). The fact that these industries have survived and prospered in the advanced countries singles them out as the right candidates for China’s premier industrial city. However, there are other reasons for making these industries an integral part of a growth strategy.
Table 3.5: Revealed Comparative Advantage in Engineering and Electronics Goods, 2006
|
RCA
|
Germany
|
1.1
|
Japan
|
1.4
|
USA
|
1.1
|
Source: UN Comtrade
Table 3.6: Selected Japanese Exports with High RCA, 2006
SITC4
|
Short description
|
RCA
|
Technology Class
|
7851
|
Motorcycles, auto-cycles; side-cars of all kind, etc
|
6.5189
|
MT1
|
7126
|
Steam power units (mobile engines but not steam tractors, etc)
|
6.5187
|
HT2
|
8841
|
Lenses and other optical elements of any material
|
4.7949
|
MT3
|
7133
|
Internal combustion piston engines, marine propulsion
|
4.6160
|
MT3
|
Note: Technology classification is based on S. Lall (2000). PP: Primary Products, RB1: Agro-Based, RB2: Other Resource-Based, LT1: Textile, garment & footwear, LT2: Other, Low-Technology, MT1: Automotive, MT2: Process, MT3: Engineering, HT1: Electronic & Electrical, and HT2: Other, High-Technology.
Source: UN Comtrade
Table 3.7: Selected German Exports with High RCA, 2006
SITC4
|
Short description
|
RCA
|
Technology Class
|
7911
|
Rail locomotives, electric
|
5.0069
|
MT2
|
7264
|
Printing presses
|
4.3978
|
MT3
|
7913
|
Mechanically propelled railway, tramway, trolleys, etc
|
3.8624
|
MT2
|
7423
|
Rotary pumps (other than those of heading 74281)
|
3.8014
|
MT3
|
7163
|
Rotary converters
|
3.6922
|
HT1
|
Note: Technology classification is based on S. Lall (2000). PP: Primary Products, RB1: Agro-Based, RB2: Other Resource-Based, LT1: Textile, garment & footwear, LT2: Other, Low-Technology, MT1: Automotive, MT2: Process, MT3: Engineering, HT1: Electronic & Electrical, and HT2: Other, High-Technology.
Source: UN Comtrade
Table 3.8: Selected Korean Exports with High RCA, 2006
SITC4
|
Short description
|
RCA
|
Technology Class
|
8710
|
Optical instruments and apparatus
|
9.7947
|
HT2
|
7932
|
Ships, boats and other vessels
|
8.8697
|
MT3
|
7938
|
Tugs, special purpose vessels and floating structures
|
7.5444
|
MT3
|
7761
|
Television picture tubes, cathode ray
|
5.6905
|
HT1
|
7247
|
Textile machinery, nes for cleaning, cutting, etc, and parts nes
|
4.8618
|
MT3
|
Note: Technology classification is based on S. Lall (2000). PP: Primary Products, RB1: Agro-Based, RB2: Other Resource-Based, LT1: Textile, garment & footwear, LT2: Other, Low-Technology, MT1: Automotive, MT2: Process, MT3: Engineering, HT1: Electronic & Electrical, and HT2: Other, High-Technology.
Source: UN Comtrade
Table 3.9: Germany’s Top 10 Exports, 2006
Commodities
|
Share of total exports
|
Road vehicles
|
16.9
|
Electric machinery, apparatus and appliances, nes, and parts, nes
|
7.9
|
General industrial machinery and equipment, nes, and parts of, nes
|
7.1
|
Machinery specialized for particular industries
|
5.1
|
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products
|
4.2
|
Power generating machinery and equipment
|
4.0
|
Miscellaneous manufactured articles, nes
|
3.7
|
Artificial resins and plastic materials, and cellulose esters etc
|
3.3
|
Manufactures of metals, nes
|
3.3
|
Iron and steel
|
3.1
|
Source: UN Comtrade
Table 3.10: Share of Engineering and Electronics Exports in Germany, Japan, and the US (%)
|
1978
|
2006
|
Germany
|
32.8
|
33.1
|
Japan
|
41.1
|
45.6
|
US
|
28.9
|
35.7
|
Source: UN Comtrade
Other types of manufacturing industries are profitable because they innovate incrementally and every so often introduce a revolutionary (disruptive) new product that redraws market boundaries and brings new firms to the forefront.44 This category of manufacturing industries ranges from food processing and cosmetics to medical imaging and nanotechnology to new materials. But they all share one distinctive feature. They are all R&D intensive, often rely on research covering several fields and frequently draw upon the basic or applied research conducted in universities or specialized institutes (Boozer and others 2003; Jaruzelski and Dehoff 2007a; Jaruzelski, Dehoff and Bordia 2005;2006). Firms in industries associated with the life sciences and in advanced materials, are not infrequently started by university faculty, draw upon the research conducted in universities, and are heavy users of legal,45 consulting, managerial and financial services with the result that they integrate closely with the services providers in the city. Both types of industries depend for their growth, profitability and longer term survival, on knowledge deepening and on product differentiation through customization, innovation of all kinds, including business models, and the packaging of products with services ("The World's Most" 2006).46
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