Selection of a scenario should occur after exercise objectives are identified. A scenario should provide a context for the participants going through the exercise to use the plans, procedures and equipment as they were trained. In this way, the participants are able to see how the response effort would work, and be in a better position to leverage the resources they are likely to have. Later, in a real situation, when additional resources are available, the participants will understand how to benefit from them; or when resources are inadequate, they will be more confident using improvisation with available resources to achieve goals.
Selection of the scenario may be based on:
Existing federal models
A recent local event
A national level news event involving similar infrastructure
An international level news event involving similar infrastructure
A historical event with current local parallels
Findings of an Opposing Force, tiger team, penetration test
Findings of any assessment involving both threat and vulnerability
A previous exercise’s improvement plan (as a follow-up exercise).
An actual occurrence increases believability.
Theoretically based scenarios decrease believability.
The more artificialities that are used, the higher the likelihood of misunderstanding and rejection by participants.
Authors’ recommendation: Look for three events that have happened within your region in the last ten years. Select the one that supports as many of the objectives as possible. Modify the scenario to include those objectives not covered. Table 4 provides a list of common types of community hazards that can be used as the basis for exercise scenario development.
Common Types of Community Hazards
Natural
|
Technological
|
Criminal/Terrorism
|
Riverine Flood
Flash Flood
Tidal Flooding/ Levee and Seawall
Overtopping
Wildland Interface Fire
Urban Conflagration
Severe Winter Storm
Ice Storm
Hurricane
Tornado
Wind Storm
Heat
Fog
Lightening
Thunderstorm
Earthquake
Liquefaction
Tsunami
Landslide
Mudslide
Debris Flow
Volcano
Drought
Hail Storm
Avalanches
Land Subsidence
Coastal Erosion
Sea Level Rise
Sink Hole
Human Disease Epidemic
Animal Disease Outbreak
Crop Disease Outbreak
Insect Infestation
Desertification
|
Hazardous Material/ Industrial
Accident
Hazardous Material/ Transportation Accident
Multi-Car Accident
Train Derailment
Storm Drain Failure
Power Outage
Communications Outage
Building Collapse
Ferry Accident
Bridge Collapse
Levee Failure
Aircraft Crash
Dam Failure
Nuclear Power Plant Accident
Silo Explosion
|
Arson
Riots/ Civil Unrest
Cyber Attack
Mass Murder/ Shootings
CBRNE Terrorism
|
All or Nothing, or Something in Between
There is a debate surrounding HSEEP exercise design concerning achievability of the scenario. This should be addressed in the Exercise Objectives, but it is easy to overlook the question during the scenario development, so the sides of the issue are included here.
One side believes that additional complications to the scenario should be added until the participants cannot proceed further or complete the objective within the time allowed. This is an adaptation of military exercise models to determine a unit’s combat mission capability.
The other side believes that the scenario should lead to a successful outcome, and that the goals should be attainable. This is an adaptation of the principles of adult education.
A third group believes in the middle-ground, managing the exercise by adding scenario complexity sufficient to expect a 50-80 percent success rate; permitting learning, with- out destroying morale. Creating failure is likely to damage the morale of the exercise participants, while success, even if not complete, will generally create participants willing to play again. Exercises are designed to test plans, policies and resources, not people. Local political realities may also prevent a “failure” exercise, as the public may interpret a failed exercise as a lack of community emergency preparedness or emergency response capability. Finally, the general acknowledgement among first responders is that the primary mission is the preservation of life, so they will continue to strive until they have saved everyone or lost all the personnel resources. While there may be value in the military model of “pushing it until it breaks,” local political considerations and participant morale suggest that allowing the participants to achieve at least some success (50-80 percent) is a better approach. Either way, make sure that the scenario provides a believable context for the exercise and matches its objectives.
Political Influences
There are times when a current event will have a disproportional effect on scenario development. At times elected representatives will raise the “What if that happens here?” question. If that occurs, it is recommended to divide the event into phases, and use only one phase as the basis of the scenario. An example would be an exercise of the initial response (first 15-20 minutes). This would then focus on the most likely first responding entity and how they would react. Another might be four to six hours into the event, with your organization’s assets joining a response effort already underway. This approach allows you to look at your exercise objectives and narrow the focus of the scenario onto those assets, while still recognizing the political realities of the officials, who want to respond to current interest in a specific scenario. Recent examples of such situations are hurricane exercises, active shooter exercises or tornado exercises after a widely reported actual event in another community.
Objectives
The core reason for an exercise cycle is to evaluate the training, plans, procedures and/or equipment to determine what areas may need improvement. Exercises test the functionality of the plans not the performance of individuals. The type of exercise (e.g., tabletop, drill) provides the framework for the activities of the personnel involved. The scenario provides the context. The objective drives the decision about the scenario and type of exercise. It is easy to overload the scenario with elements or make the emergency too complex. When that happens, the objective(s) of the exercise becomes lost in the details of the scenario, and participants often lose sight of their purpose in exercising. Keep your objectives simple and clear. Refer to them frequently when developing the scenario. Always ask, “Is this scenario input necessary to create a plausible situation the participants will believe in and respond to?”
The following sections provide skeletal outlines of points to consider and topics to include when constructing exercise scenarios. Each outline is followed by one or more example scenarios. These may be used with the outlines to create credible exercises.
Share with your friends: |