Hegemony Good Index
Download 335.07 Kb.
|
- Navigate this page:
- A2 Balancing – China
A2: Balancing-RussiaRussia will not rise to power – poor morale, weak infrastructure and moderate leaders ensure cooperation instead of conflict. Zbigniew Brzezinski (Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a professor of foreign policy @ Johns Hopkins) 2004 “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership” p 99 None of the three traditional rivals for regional preeminence—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—now has the power to impose its unilateral will on the area as a whole. Even a combination of two against one—say Russia and Iran against Turkey—would be insufficient, as in the background lurk both the United States (through NATO, of which Turkey is a key member) and the European Union (to which Turkey aspires). Yet without some active external involvement, the internal social, political, ethnic, and religious conflicts of the Caucasus will not only continue to fester but are likely to erupt into periodic violence, as they have already done several times since 1990. That increasingly self-evident reality may even induce Russia to conclude, albeit reluctantly, that its interests would be best served by some form of collaboration with the Euroatlantic community to promote a more stable, eventually cooperative and prosperous, CaucAsian region. The two bloody wars Russia brutally waged against the independence-seeking Chechnya in the decade following the disintegration of its historic empire not only did enormous damage to Russia's moral standing but demonstrated the physical limits of its capacity to wage an imperial war in the post-imperial age. A2 Balancing – ChinaDemographics will undermine China’s ability to challenge U.S. hegemony. Bradley A. Thayer (Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University) 2007 “American Empire: A Debate” p 32-3 The Threat from China: Significant, but Reduced by the Dragon's Demographics China is a major country undergoing a dramatic modernization process. It is where the United States was a hundred years ago or where most major European countries were one hundred and fifty years ago. Periods of modernization result in great economic growth as economies move from agrarian to an industrial or postindustrial information economy. Its economic growth rates are very impressive—an 8 percent real increase in GDP in 2000, 7.3 per-cent in 2001, 8 percent in 2002, and 9.1 percent in 2003.4' So the trend of economic growth is clear and certainly will continue for the next few years, before falling off as economic efficiencies and returns on trade decline. Eventually, China will have economic growth rates of 1 percent, 2 percent, or 3 percent per year, which is typical for developed countries. Nevertheless, as a result of its rapid growth, China will be in a position to threaten the dominant role of the United States in world politics. According to the National Intelligence Council, China is projected to have about a $4.3 trillion GDP in 2016." That is equivalent to the 2003 GDP of Japan. About 2042, China is expected to have the GDP (about $10.9 trillion) that the United States possessed in 2003. Although its continued economic growth is impressive, China faces major problems that will hinder its ability to replace the United States as the world's hegemon. The first of these is a rapidly aging population beginning in 2020.Nearly 400 million Chinese will be over sixty-five years old by 2020. This could be a source of unrest and economic stagnation. Younger generations will be pressed to care for the older population. There will be a great discrepancy between the numbers of young people and the elderly, and China lacks the pension and health care infrastructure characteristic of Western societies. Many Chinese will have to work far into old age and will not be able to care for themselves should they fall sick or be too old to earn a wage. As we see with Japan, economic productivity will peak. This situation is the direct result of the “one child" policy adopted in 1979 to halt explosive population growth. When China took its first countrywide census in 1953, its population was 600 million. By 1970, it was approximately 800million. As a result of the "one child" policy, the Chinese birthrate has fallen from 5.8 children per woman in 1970 to fewer than 2 per woman in 2000. The “one child” policy is believed to have resulted in 300 million fewer Chinese. A second big problem stemming from the “one child” policy is the imbalance between the sexes. For social and economic reasons, if only one child is permitted, most Chinese parents will choose a son. This has led to widespread abortion, female infanticide, and female adoption out of China. Simply put, there are too few females in China. The normal worldwide divergence between the number of boys to girls is about 103 males to 107 females. In China, about 119 boys are born for every 100 girls. In rural areas, where the preference for sons is the strongest, the imbalance is even greater, about 133 to 100 " There are an estimated 40 million more men than women in China's population. The declining birth rates that flow from this will hinder economic growth in the long run. China eventually will face other major economic and social problems as well, including those related to the economic fragility of its financial system and state-owned enterprises, economic malaise brought on by widespread corruption, ubiquitous environmental pollution, HIV/AIDS and other epidemic diseases like SARS, and the high energy costs, which stifle economic growth. In addition, unlike the United States, China is not a model for other countries. Chinese political values are inferior to those of the United States because China is repressive. The Chinese do not respect human rights, including religious and political freedom. China can’t gain support – viewed as a threat. Bradley A. Thayer (Associate Professor in the Dept. of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University) 2007 “American Empire: A Debate” p 33 states. The fact that China has so many territorial and other disputes with its major neighbors, Japan, India, Russia, and Vietnam, means that many countries see it as a threat and will want to ally with the United States against Chinese power. The rise of China is ripe for potential conflict with its neighbors, and this constitutes a big danger in international politics.
Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective files -> Pop Warner History files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations Download 335.07 Kb. Share with your friends:
|