Russia Military growth low now – poor economy
(Mark Adomanis - educated first at Harvard and then at Oxford and received - written for True/Slant, INOSMI, and Salon - Russia's Arms Buildup Is Still Proceeding at a Snail's Pace - http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/07/06/russias-arms-buildup-is-still-proceeding-at-a-snails-pace/)
Part of the reason that I am so sanguine about the “threat” posed to the United States by Russia is because Russia’s entire military industrial complex essentially collapsed in on itself during the 1990′s and is only very slowly starting to be rebuilt. The Russians can still create some top-flight weapons systems, but even those are usually delivered years past the original deadline and with significant cost overruns. Since Russia has less than half the US’ population and a much weaker economy, there’s simply no way for them to compete with the United States on the full spectrum of military hardware. I don’t want to ramble on in a lot of detail right now (the topic deserves its own post) but at a very basic level the Russians had to re-learn and re-build every facet of their defense industry, down to the way in which assembly lines functioned. They were also forced to confront a situation in which many crucial sub-contractors were located in foreign, and often unfriendly, countries. So grievously inefficient were the methods employed under Communism, and so dependent were they on connections with former Soviet republics, that the Russians basically had to start from scratch. To me the much-publicized travails of Russia’s defense industry, including a few very spectacular failures in naval construction, are far less about the corruption and unaccountability of Putin’s regime than they are the fact that Russia had to re-learn a lot of very complicated manufacturing processes on the fly and on a shoestring budget. When you consider that the Soviet Union routinely spent something like 34%* of GDP on defense and that Russia spends somewhere around 5%, the difficulties of the Russian military industrial complex start to come into perspective: if the Pentagon were forced to cope with an 80+% budget cut, I’d imagine its procurement activities would also suffer.
Strong Russia Econ causes military spending
Forecast International 11
(provides Market Research, Market Analysis, Intelligence and Consulting for the Aerospace / Aviation, Defense, Power Systems and military electronics - Three Key Factors at Play for Russian Military Modernization http://www.defencetalk.com/three-key-factors-at-play-for-russian-military-modernization-33469/)
The Russian government is intent on reviving the nation’s arms industry while simultaneously modernizing the armed forces. To this end, the Kremlin has revised its State Armaments Program (SAP) and is now calling for RUB20 trillion ($704.9 billion) to be spent on the military’s modernization from 2011-2020. There are three key factors that will determine the extent to which the SAP can be implemented. First, in order to meet the funding goal of RUB20 trillion, approximately 4.5 percent of the nation’s GDP must be directed toward military funding. However, given Russia’s current financial position, this may be a bit ambitious. According to Rebecca Barrett, Eurasian defense analyst at Forecast International, the recent global economic crisis “exposed the structural faults of the Russian economy.” She noted, “While equity markets have improved since mid-2009 and capital markets have re-opened, the repair of the financial system is far from complete.” The government is now hoping that the economy will reach pre-crisis levels by the end of 2012, at which time GDP should be on par with the levels achieved in 2008. At the same time, the crisis has also exposed the financial weaknesses of the Russian aerospace and defense industry. Fortunately for Moscow, the timing could not have been better. The Kremlin leveraged this exposure to consolidate the defense sector under government control and will now use the industry’s capabilities to complete the military’s modernization plan. However, Barrett points out in the “Market Overview” report on Russia that the government must invest in research and development programs for the defense sector in order to stave off the pending industrial decline. Without the investment, the industry’s defense technology base could become a major impediment to the SAP. The third key factor is the defense budget. The MoD has begun transitioning funding streams to support additional arms procurements through two major reform processes. The first is a cost-saving reform which calls for the reduction of some 200,000 personnel by 2012. The second major reform is the adoption of a new budgetary framework. According to Barrett, “The process is designed to modernize the Kremlin’s fiscal practices and provide longer-term price and policy signals to the Russian defense industry.” In order for the SAP to be fully implemented, the government must continue to invest heavily in both the military and the nation’s defense industry. Furthermore, because the SAP calls for 11 percent of existing military equipment to be upgraded and a full 70 percent to be replaced with modern weapons, the Russian defense industry needs to stay afloat and the economy must continue to rebound at a steady rate.
Harding and Traynor 07
(Luke Harding is an award-winning foreign correspondent with the
Guardian. Ian Traynor is the Guardian's European editor. He is based in Brussels - Big rise in Russian military spending raises fears of new challenge to west - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/feb/09/russia.usa)
In 2002, Mr Putin and George Bush signed a treaty obliging both sides to cut strategic nuclear weapons by about two-thirds by 2012. But Russian-US ties have since worsened steadily over disagreements on Iraq and other global crises, and US concerns about an authoritarian streak in Russia's domestic policy. The modernisation of the armed forces has been made possible by Russia's spectacular economic resurgence based on oil and gas revenues. After the Soviet Union's demise, Russia's vast military economy collapsed. The squeeze continued in the 1990s, but since 2000 spending has gone up, with this year's budget of $31bn almost four times the amount spent in 2001. Russian defence analysts point out, however, that defence spending is still well below that of the mid-1980s Soviet Union, and only a 20th of the US's current military budget.