Conclusion: Recommendations and responsibilities

Table 2: Responsible body and partners for implementing the recommendations

AWPA’s modelling of future employment across key ICT occupations is based on four scenarios.⁴¹⁹ The scenarios are not projections, nor are they based on past trends, but represent a range of possible futures. The four scenarios are:

1. The long boom: The economy recovers from the financial uncertainty of 2012 and India and China drive the demand for Australian resources. Mining and construction continue to thrive in Australia.

2. Smart recovery: A protracted European downturn and slowing growth in China and India create a drop in demand for Australian resources. As global growth resumes from 2014–15, the Australian economy looks to knowledge-based industries to drive growth, which leads to increased demand in technology-related skills.

3. Terms of trade shock: An oversupply of commodities creates a drop in commodity prices. Australia moves to a broad-based economy with internationally competitive businesses.

4. Ring of fire: In a context of natural disasters, global crises, political unrest and increased protectionism, the lower Australian dollar enables the strengthening of trade-exposed industry sectors.

AWPA analysis of the common themes across the scenarios indicates that technology is a key driver in all cases. Table 3 outlines projected employment in ICT occupations by 2025. The ‘ring of fire’ scenario is excluded as it has a very different set of assumptions to the other models.

Table 3: Employment in ICT occupations for three AWPA scenarios, as at 2025

Appendix Two: Stakeholders in AWPA ICT workforce study

Box Hill Institute of TAFE*

Australian Council for Private Education and Training*

Deakin University*

Australian Computer Society*

Computing Research and Education Association of Australasia (CORE)*

Australian Council of Deans of Information and Communications Technology*

Communications and Information Technology Training Limited (CITT)*

National ICT Australia*

Australian Information Industry Association*

Innovation and Business Skills Australia*

IC Central*

Swinburne University*

Australian Government Information Management Office*

National Broadband Network (NBN) Co*

Australian Industry Group*

Information Technology Industry Innovation Council*

Australian Services Union*

Association of Professional Engineers, Scientists and Managers, Australia*

Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations*

IBM Corporation*

Telstra

Cisco Systems, Inc

Microsoft

Energy Skills Australia (E-Oz)

Westpac

Digital Economy White Paper Task Force, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet

Universities Australia

TAFE Directors Australia

Communications Electrical Plumbing Union

Northern Sydney Institute TAFE

Additional stakeholders consulted

Department of Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy

Enterprise Connect

Industry Skills Branch, Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education

Department of State Development, Business and Innovation, Victorian Government*

Office for Learning and Teaching

National VET Equity Advisory Council

Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority

Education Services Australia

* These organisations provided submissions and/or input into the Overview and Recommendations.

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