Swing States – Core Four (FL/NC/OH/VA)

Swing States – Core Four (FL/NC/OH/VA)

Romney needs the entire Core Four or he will lose.

In 2008, President Obama was able to win election in part because he won in states that had been traditionally Republican such as New Hampshire, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina , as well as picking up the still-crucial swing states of Florida and Ohio. This time around, the only way the GOP can win the Presidency is by picking up a good portion of those states, and specifically by picking up the core four states that are part of Rasmussen’s poll. When I saw this poll this morning, I immediately started playing around with various Electoral College scenarios at 270ToWin.com (a great site for political junkies, by the way) and it looks to me like, absent the unlikely event of a landslide, there is no way the GOP can win the Presidency without winning all four of these states. They can lose Iowa. They can lose New Hampshire. They can once again fail to flip New Mexico (which seems likely given their problems with the Latino vote). But, even under the most optimistic scenario there is no way they can afford to lose any one of these states. (Nevada is another state the GOP may try to flip this year but it’s six Electoral Votes are unlikely to be the deciding factor in this race) The task becomes more difficult, of course, if the GOP somehow manages to lose a state that they won in 2008. For example, John McCain won Missouri in 2008 by the narrowest of margins, just 3,903 votes. Right now, due in large part to the fact that the state has definitely shifted red in the past three years I’m going to assume that the GOP holds on to the state. Similarly, the GOP lost Indiana in 2008 for the first time since 1964 but there’s plenty of reason to believe that the state will return to the Republican fold this year. If one or both of those states ends up in Obama’s column, then winning the “Core Four” won’t matter at all. So, perhaps it’s better to say that the GOP must hold on to all of the states it won in 2008 and flip Indiana and the “Core Four.” If it doesn’t do that, Barack Obama will be re-elected. So, if you’re looking for numbers to pay attention to over the coming eight months, these are the six states — Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida — to keep an eye on because they’re likely to decide the election.

Swing States Key

Winning the key swing states guarantees Obama a win.

Reuters, 6/27/2012 (Obama takes lead in swing states, economy still weighs, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/27/us-usa-campaign-swingstates-poll-idUSBRE85Q0YJ20120627)

President Barack Obama is carving out a clear lead in swing states that are key to the November 6 presidential election, even as national polls show him neck-and-neck with Republican rival Mitt Romney. Helped by the White House's recent loosening of immigration rules, Obama leads Romney in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University survey on Wednesday. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll showed Obama ahead of his challenger by just 3 points: a lead of 47 percent to 44 percent which is within the margin of error. However, the Democrat's lead stretches to 8 points when the race is measured in 12 tightly contested states. Voters are still deeply worried about the economy, and Obama's campaign could suffer a heavy blow if the Supreme Court rules against his healthcare overhaul on Thursday. But on paper, Obama seems to have an easier path than Romney to winning 270 electoral college votes, and thus the election, if he can hold on to some of the big swing states he won in 2008. Among the most contested battleground states today, Obama won Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida in 2008. "If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through Election Day he would be virtually assured of re-election," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

AT: Link Turn – Jobs Key to Swing States

Increasing jobs will not swing key states --- it does not translate into economic growth.

Huffington Post, 7/9/2012 (Swing States Where Unemployment is Dropping Rapidly, p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/06/swing-state-unemployment_n_1653972.html)

The jobs gains in a handful of swing states has been a bright spot for Obama's campaign. Of the ten states that made the most rapid employment gains over the last year, five are swing states. The recent economic success in states like Florida -- where unemployment has fallen by 2 percent -- may be worrying Republican strategists. Republican lawmakers in successful swing states have reportedly been told to play down their home state's recovery by the national party in an aim to prevent the President from benefiting politically in the November elections. But swing state job growth may not guarantee Obama's reelection. In New Hampshire, New England's only swing state, the unemployment rate was 5 percent in May. Despite the state's stellar jobs numbers, a recent NBC News/Marist Poll shows that the race in the Granite State is in a statistical dead heat. Nor do rising employment numbers necessarily indicate 'strong' economic recoveries. Wages have fallen in every one of the ten states posting the most rapid job gains, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The National Employment Law Project estimates that 71 percent of re-employed -- individuals who lost their jobs and subsequently found new work -- received a lower wage than the one they earned at their previous job, with half of this group earning a paycheck 25 percent lower than what they had earned previously.

Directory: files
files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2
files -> Integer programming and game theory
files -> 4 Integer Programming
files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. Objective
files -> Pop Warner History
files -> North Carolina Inclusion Initiative Mapping Where Children with ieps are Being Served Purpose
files -> Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Program Data: Standard 1 Exhibit 4d
files -> Hanban – asia society confucius classrooms network 2010 request for proposal
files -> Northern England’s set-jetting locations

Download 1.8 Mb.

Share with your friends: