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- US space weponization causes Russia to freak out and modernize kill relations
- Space Arms Race 2NC --- Link Extension
- Space weaponization leads to an arms race that threatens US
SMIL Bad --- Russia WarSpace-based missile defense causes US-Russia nuke warEdland 2k - Eland Ivan Eland, is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute. Dr. Eland is a graduate of Iowa State University and received an M.B.A. in applied economics and Ph.D. in national security policy from George Washington University. He has been Director of Defense Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, and he spent 15 years working for Congress on national security issues, including stints as an investigator for the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Principal Defense Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office., January 24, 2000, Should U.S. Missile Defense Be Limited to a Ground-Based Systems? Yes, We Can Build a Limited Homeland Shield Without Breaking an ABM Treaty [Russia’s greatest fear is a much grander U.S. missile-defense system that includes space-based weapons and undermines the ability of the Russian nuclear arsenal to ride out a surprise American attack and have enough warheads left to inflict unacceptable damage on the United States. Although the Russians are strapped for cash, large U.S. defenses could cause them to take desperate actions that would destabilize the nuclear balance--retaining missiles with multiple warheads that they are supposed to eliminate under the as-yet-unratified START II treaty or converting their new single-warhead Topol-M missile into one with multiple warheads. (Missiles with multiple warheads are destabilizing because an adversary might be tempted to launch a preemptive attack to wipe out several warheads in each silo or to launch its weapons on warning of a preemptive attack on its own missiles with multiple warheads.)] US space weponization causes Russia to freak out and modernize kill relationsGallagher 5– Nancy Gallagher, Nancy Gallagher is the Associate Director for Research at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and a Senior Research Scholar at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy. he has been an arms control specialist in the State Department, a Foster Fellow in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and a faculty member at Wesleyan University. , Towards a Reconsideration of the Rules for Space Security, The challenge for Russian security planners is to maintain deterrence stability while US capabilities are steadily improving and Russian capabilities are declining both quantitatively and qualitatively. The Bush and Putin administrations speak warmly of their new strategic partnership, yet suspicions linger along with massive nuclear arsenals on continual alert. In February 2004, Russia used its largest war game since the early Reagan years to demonstrate that Russia’s deterrent remains strong and that Russia could match the United States in areas such as new nuclear weapons development and war-time satellite launch. Russia claims to have developed a hypersonic missile that could maneuver through a future US anti-missile system and to have tested a modernized version of its nuclear-tipped ABM system around Moscow. Several missile launch failures during the Russian war game, however, were embarrassing reminders that the Russian military has serious reliability problems and it is hard to know whether these modernization efforts are more than public relations exercises.42 Moreover, pervasive gaps in Russia’s early-warning satellite systems prevent Russian military leaders from having confidence that they would know if they were to come under attack at any time from any direction. The more that space-based systems reduce US concerns about the costs of using force, the more likely Russia is to seek asymmetrical, and potentially very destabilizing, ways to shore up its own deterrent. Space Arms Race 2NC --- Link ExtensionSpace weapons bad – leads to arms race, China ASATs, Russia, China, IndiaHitchens 2 – Theresa Hitchens is Director of the Center for Defense Information, and leads its Space Security Project, in cooperation with the SecureWorld Foundation. Editor of Defense News from 1998 to 2000, Hitchens has had a long career in journalism, with a focus on military, defense industry and NATO affairs. She also was director of research at the British American Security Information Council. Hitchens serves on the editorial board of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and is a member of Women in International Security and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 18th, 2002, "Weapons in Space: Silver Bullet or Russian Roulette? The Policy Implications of U.S. Pursuit of Space-Based Weapons," www.cdi.org/missile-defense/spaceweapons.cfm "To be sure, not deploying weapons in space is no guarantee that potentially hostile nations (such as China) will not develop and deploy ASATs. However, it is virtually certain that deploying U.S. weapons in space will lead to the development and deployment of ASATs to counter such weapons," notes a new policy brief by the Cato Institute.27 China and Russia long have been worried about possible U.S. breakout on space-based weaponry. Officials from both countries have expressed concern that the U.S. missile defense program is aimed not at what Moscow and Beijing see as a non-credible threat from rogue-nation ballistic missiles, but rather at launching a long-term U.S. effort to dominate space. Both Russia and China also are key proponents of negotiations at the UN Conference on Disarmament to expand the 1967 Outer Space Treaty to ban all types of weapons. The effort to start talks known as PAROS, for "prevention of an arms race in outer space," has been stalled due in large part to the objection of the United States. For example, in November 2000, the United States was one of three countries (the others were Israel and Micronesia) to refuse to vote for a UN resolution citing the need for steps to prevent the arming of space.28 It is inconceivable that either Russia or China would allow the United States to become the sole nation with space-based weapons. "Once a nation embarks down the road to gain a huge asymmetric advantage, the natural tendency of others is to close that gap. An arms race tends to develop an inertia of its own," writes Air Force Lt. Col. Bruce M. DeBlois, in a 1998 article in Airpower Journal.29 Chinese moves to put weapons in space would trigger regional rival India to consider the same, in turn, spurring Pakistan to strive for parity with India. Even U.S. allies in Europe might feel pressure to "keep up with the Joneses." It is quite easy to imagine the course of a new arms race in space that would be nearly as destabilizing as the atomic weapons race proved to be.
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