Science, and transportation united states senate

for additional pp-tn

42-J3 °»J

Georgian BSB

Tadihlakay* SSB

Irlao* (Ukraine)

Koldarian SSI

Armenian SSB

Azerbaijan SSB

EratDOdarek region

I. Catoani

Uabeklotan SSB

Irkutsk

teirutek SSB

EhabaroTak

Chit*

45-46. 5°I (

15.5-19 ! J

(0)

G/B dlaperaal (rockets) Agl

Artill.rj injection Agl

Socket and artillery Injection

Hooket injection AffI

Artillery injection A*!

Socket and artillery lnjeotion

Air (en Ac I seeded at olsod

baaa

Air dl ape reel Solid CO,

Agl 150g cartridges at -10°C

(COOCn)

I eertridgae. llg/lm

Dree cartridges }00g

0°-10°C (4000-WJOOm)

aClOj particles

Powdered clay particles ^0*

412

EXPLANATION OF COLUMNS IN TABLE 1

Cl = Climate modification. PE = Precipitation enhancement.

Cy = Tropical cyclone moderation. S = Snow enhancement.

F = Fog dispersal. R = Research experiment.

FC = Cold fog dispersal. X = Flood control.

FW = Warm fog dispersal. Z = Inhibition of convective cloud develop-

H = Hail suppression. ment.

L = Lightning suppression.

Col. 2 — Approximate size of project area : Area given in square kilometers ; (a) indicates

overall area, (b) target area.

Col. 4 — Location of project area : In some cases where coordinates of several points de-

lineating the area were given, these have been replaced by a single point at approximately

the center of the area. Towns and islands may be denoted by name ; A/P = airport.

Col. 7 — Nature of national organization sponsoring project (indicated by abbreviations)

as follows :

Agr = Agricultural. Met = Meteorological.

Erg = Energy. < P) — Private.

For = Forestry. Res = Research.

(G) = Governmental. Ski = Winter sports.

Hyd = Hydrological. Tpn = Transportation.

Ind = Industrial.

Col. S — Apparatus, agents, dispersal rates, etc. : Chemical and SI symbols are used. Ab-

breviations are as follows :

Air = Airborne/ Aircraft. Pyro = Pyrotechnic.

G/B = Ground-based. R/C = Remote-controlled,

gen = Generator.

A copy of the questionnaire and reporting instructions circulated to

WMO member nations for reporting weather modification activities is

included in appendix P of this report. Also included in appendix P is a

list of the names and addresses of the reporting agencies of the member

countries which have weather modification activities.

Description of Weather Modification Activities in Some Foreign-

Nations

THE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS

vervieio of projects in the U.S.S.R.

The largest weather modification effort outside the United States is in

the Soviet Union, where there are both a continuing research program

and an expanding operational program. The latter is primarily concen-

trated in a program designed to reduce crop damage from hail. In 1976,

about 5 million hectares 9 of Soviet farmland were included under this

operational hail suppression program, whose costs are met by the

Ministry of Agriculture. Both administrators and scientists in the

U.S.S.K. have maintained that these hail-seeding operations — under-

way since the mid-1960's — are successful, and they are to be expanded in

future years. The hail suppression techniques developed in the Soviet

Union are being used in many parts of the country, including the Xorth

and South Caucasus, Moldavia, and Middle Asia, as well as in the

neighboring countries of Bulgaria and Hungary. 10

Bat tan estimated that the overall Soviet operational hail suppression

program could employ as many as 5.000 people. 11 The Soviet hail abate-

ment program is obviously an important national effort and is clearly

the largest such program in the world. Other interests and activities

in weather modification in the U.S.S.R. include precipitation augmen-

tation and fog dispersal.

9 Approximately 15 million acres.

10 Rattan. Louis J., "Weather Modification in the Soviet Union; 1070." Bulletin of the

American Meteorological Society, vol. 58, No. 1, January 1977, p. 4.

11 Ibid., p. 13.

413

A review of Soviet weather modification activities was written in

Service. 12 He traces the history of activities in the U.S.S.R. from early

prescientific use of hail cannons, through the scentific investigations by

the Institute of Experimental Meteorology in the 1930's, to the recent

activities in cloud physics research and weather modification, particu-

larly in precipitation augmentation and hail control. 13 Federov con-

cludes that cloud-seeding experiments carried out in a number of places

in the U.S.S.R. indicate an approximate 10 to 15 percent increase in

precipitation is possible. 14 Because of the great space-time variability

in areas of hail damage, estimates of hail suppression effectiveness are

difficult ; however, a method of evaluation has been developed, based on

changes in the area damaged by hail. 15 Table 2 shows areas of coverage

and reported decreases in hail damage reported for the years 1966

through 1970, in the Northern Caucausus and in Georgia, using hail

suppression techniques developed at three Soviet institutions (identi-

fied by the abbreviations VGI, IGAN, and ZakNIGMI). 16 Based on

these results, it has been concluded that the average decrease of the area

in which crops were damaged by hail was about 80 percent. 17

TABLE 2.— MEAN DECREASE OF HAIL DAMAGE AREAS IN HAIL SUPPRESSION REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN

CAUCASUS (VGI) AND GEORGIA (ZakNIGMI, IGAN) FOR THE YEARS 1966-70

[From Sulakvelidze, et. al., 1974]

1966

1968

1970

VGI

890

890

IGAN

320

460

.ZakNIGMI

50

80

150

Average decrease in hail damage area (percent):

VGI

90

87

62

76

67

88

96

94

Summary of weather modification and related atmospheric research in

the U.S.S.R.

Federov's summary of Soviet activities is concluded with an exten-

sive and valuable listing of 179 references in the Russian literature

on weather modification, cloud physics, and related research, dating

from 1961 through 1972. The citations are listed under the following

topics and subtopics, which give some idea of the scope and direction

of the Soviet research through the early 1970 ? s : 18

Micro- and macro-structure of clouds :

Studies of the micro- and macro-structure, water content, and

phase state of clouds ; and

Experiments on convection.

Radar studies:

The use of polarization methods of radar study of clouds and

the results of their modification ;

12 Federov, Ye. K., "Modification of Meteorological Processes," in Wilmot N. Hess (edi-

tor), "Weather and Climate Modification," New York, Wiley, 1974, pp. 387-409.

13 Ibid., p. 389-397.

14 Ibid., p. 395.

13 Ibid., p. 397.

18 Sulakvelidze. G. K., B. I. Kiziriva, and V. V. Tsykunov, "Progress of Hail Suppression

Work in the U.S.S.R.," in Wilmot N. Hess (ed.), "Weather and Climate Modification," New

York. Wiley, 1974. p. 42S.

17 Ibid.

18 Federov, "Modification of Meteorological Processes," 1974, pp. 402-409.

34-857 O - 79 - 29

414

cipitation ;

Orderly and turbulent motions in clouds ;

Radar characteristics of shower and cumulonimbus clouds and

cloud systems ; and

Methods of identifying hail zones and determining the degree

of risk.

Creation and breaking up of convective clouds :

Results of experiments on breaking up cumulus clouds with

loose powders ; and

Stimulating updrafts by means of artificially created jets which

trigger cloud development.

Elementary physical and chemical processes in clouds :

Experiments with the use of a device for modeling cloud proc-

esses;

Studies of elementary processes in clouds, physics of condensa-

Laboratory investigations of action of crystallized reagents,

properties of crystalline and drop fogs, norm of flow rate of

reagents ;

Mechanism of formation of crystals on crystallization nuclei;

Regularities in growth of individual crystals and droplets;

Stochastic theory of condensation ; and

Quantitative theory of processes of formation of crystallization

nuclei, formation of crystallization on zone and its rate of spread,

technique for introducing reagent, characteristics of open zone.

Dissipation of supercooled clouds and f o^s :

Study of conditions permitting fog dissipation, and experiments

on clearing large areas (on the order of 10,000 square kilometers)

of overcast due to a change in the radiation balance.

Modification of hail processes :

Results of studies of processes of formation of hail cloud,

growth of hail and its transformation; development of tech-

niques for modifying hail processes and results of experimental

work.

Augmentation of precipitation from clouds and cloud systems:

by means of dry ice ; and increasing precipitation from cumulus

and powerful-cumulus clouds over a Ukranian test area.

Extinguishing forest fires by cloud modification :

Results of first experiments showing practicability of work on

extinguishing forest fires by stimulating artificial precipitation

over fire regions.

Water reserves of clouds suitable for modification :

Studios of water reserves of seedable clouds over various regions

oftheU.S.S.R.

Estimating the effectiveness of cloud modification :

Estimating effectiveness of cloud modification experiments and

monitoring of results of modification.

That such a diversity of research is possible is not too surprising

when one considers the manpower available. Hess notes that Academi-

cian Federov, Chief of the Hydrometeorological Service, has about

415

75,000 people who work for him on all problems of weather and ocean-

United States, the National Weather Service, has about 6,000 em-

ployees. 19 *

On his 1976 trip to the U.S.S.R., Battan visited a number of re-

search institutions throughout the country at which weather modifi-

cation research is conducted. He estimated that about 600 people are

engaged in various aspects of research in weather modification and

cloud physics, and noted that a younger group of scientists seems to

be replacing the previous researchers in the past few years. The So-

viets have also invested heavily in experimental facilities. 20

While hail suppression is considered to be a demonstrated tech-

nology in the Soviet Union and operations continue to increase,

Battan notes that research in hail modification is currently at a low

level. He also reports that research on rainfall augmentation is mostly

concentrated in the Ukraine as it has been for many years; but, it

appeared to him that, overall, the interest in rainfall augmentation

research is relatively low in view of the importance of rainfall to

agriculture. Current rainfall stimulation operations are designed for

extinguishing forest fires rather than increasing water for agricul-

ture. Battan concludes that the Soviet scientists seem to be no closer

to a proven technology for precipitation augmentation than is the

United States and that there still remain unresolved questions on the

efficacy of the Soviet hail suppression techniques. 21

ISRAEL

precipitation augmentation was conducted in parallel with that in

other countries throughout the 1950 , s. Beginning in 1961, a series of

carefully conducted major experiments were initiated which have

produced convincing evidence on the possibility of increasing pre-

cipitation through aircraft seeding of the convective clouds which

move eastward over Israel from the Mediterranean Sea. The first of

these major experiments was conducted from 1961 through 1967, and

the second 6 1 /2 _ year experiment was begun in 1969 and recently com-

pleted. Though early research had been conducted by the Israeli De-

fense Ministry, present research and operations are supported by the

Ministry of Agriculture. 22

Weather modification experimentation in Israel has been accom-

panied by basic cloud physics research, and it is believed that these

intensive physical studies have contributed greatly to understanding

of the precipitation processes, required for development of rain en-

hancement techniques. 23

Results of the first Israeli experiment indicated a statistical increase

of 15 to 24 percent in precipitation as a result of seeding, at a high

significance level, while the second experiment showed a 20-percent

19 Hess, Wilmot N., "Progress in Other Countries," in "Weather and Climate Modifica-

tion," New York, Wiley, 1974, p. 385.

20 Battan, "Weather Modification in the Soviet Union ; 1976," 1977, p. 18.

71 Ibid., pp. 18-19.

^Gagin. A., "Testimony Before the U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Modification

Advisory Board," Reston. Va., Dec. 18, 1977.

23 Gagin, A., and J. Neumann, "Rain Stimulation and Cloud Physics in Israel," in Wil-

mot N. Hess (ed.), "Weather and Climate Modification," New York, Wiley, 1974, p. 462.

416

rainfall increase in the catchment area of the Sea of Galilee. In 1976

part of Israel, based on these optimistic results, where the target area

is the Sea of Galilee catchment area. Since earlier results for the

southern part of the country are not definitive, however, a third major

experiment has been undertaken for that part of the country. 24

Water increases through the Israeli precipitation augmentation

program have been estimated at about 300 million metric tons per

year, at a cost of $400,000. This is equivalent to a rough cost of $1 per

acre-foot. By comparison, the ratio of costs for increasing water

through desalination to those through weather modification is approx-

imately 700 to l. 25

AUSTRALIA

Although, in recent years, field experiments have been curtailed,

there has been a major Australian research effort in the past directed

toward precipitation enhancement through weather modification. A

major research program in cloud physics, supportive of weather modi-

fication as well as other aspects of meteorology, is continuing there,

under the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Orga-

nization (CSIRO). Since much of Australia consists of deserts where

rainfall is sparse and unreliable, augmenting rainfall through arti-

ficial means has been appealing there. 26

Figure 2. — Location of cloud seeding experiments in southeastern Australia.

(From Smith, Cloud Seeding in Australia, 1974.)

' Gagin, testimony before the Weather Modification Advisory Board, 11)77.

25 Ibid.

20 Smith, E. J., "Cloud Seeding in Australia," in Wilmot N. Hess (ed.), "Weather and

Climate Modification," New York, Wiley, 1974. p. 432.

417

Figure 3. — Experimental areas in Tasmania. (From Smith, Cloud Seeding in

Australia, 1974.)

As elsewhere, early weather modification experiments in Aus-

tralia were conducted between the late 1940 , s and the mid-1960's.

During the period 1955 through 1963 four experiments were

carired out at locations shown in figure 2, in order to determine

whether rain over the specific areas could be increased from airborne

silver iodide seeding. These experiments were only partially successful,

owing partly to their design. 27 Starting in 1964 and running through

1971, a very successful experiment was conducted in Tasmania, results

of which have indicated a 15- to 18-percent precipitation increase in

winter, though there was no apparent increase during the other sea-

sons. 28 (See fig. 3.)

w Ibid., p. 442.

28 Bowen, E. G., private communication, January 1978.

418

In the late 1960's operational weather modification programs for

States — Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Aus-

tralia — using privately contracted seeding aircraft. The CSIRO oper-

ated courses of instruction in weather modification techniques and

provided information on the state of the art to the States and the

operators. These operational programs have since been discontinued,

however, and there are no such operational programs now in exist-

ence. 29

During the period of Australian weather modification experiments,

the funding was partitioned about equally between laboratory research

in cloud physics and the field activities. With the close of the Tas-

manian experiment, nearly all effort is currently performed in the

laboratory or in theoretical studies. The funding level of the program

is about $1 million annually. 30

CANADA

The most noteworthy weather modification activities in Canada are

1956 in the Province of Alberta. Commercial hail suppression opera-

tions, supported by farmers and conducted from 1956 through 1968,

were summarized recently. 31 These nonrandomized operations were

evaluated on the basis of insurance statistics, that is, loss-risk ratios,

and the following conclusions were reached : 32

1. Commercial hail suppression operations (based on the Alberta

project from 1961 through 1968) show a benefit-to-cost ratio of 47 to

1. Added benefits in the study target from rain increase were 30 to 1.

Thus, total benefit -to-cost in the target is about 77 to 1.

2. For the 1961-68 period of operations, the hail damage in the

study target was 71 percent less than during the historical period

1938-60 while at the same time no significant change occurred in the

control area.

3. Fringe benefits from the inevitable rain increase phase over a

total of about 6 million acres (3 times the size of hail suppression

target) yielded a benefit-to-cost of around 90 to 1.

During the same period the Alberta Research Council (ARC) spon-

sored a concentrated study of hail and hailstorms, and seeding was

begun on such storms in 1970. It became apparent in the early 1970's

that there was a disparity between results obtained through this re-

search and the earlier operations. 33 As a result, the legislative assembly

appointed a special committee of 10 members to evaluate the situa-

tion and take action which seemed appropriate. A government corpo-

ration was formed for the purpose of running a hail suppression re-

search program, and an interim weather modification board was ap-

pointed by the Minister of Agriculture. 34

» Ibid.

31 Krick. Irvine: P. and Newton C. Stone. "Hail Suppression in Alberta : 1956-1968," the

Journal of Weather Modification, vol. 7, No. 1. April 1975, pp. 101-115.

32 Ibid., p. 114.

M Simpson. Joanno. "The National Hall Rosoarch Experiment Report on t v e Alberta Hall

Project." national hall research experiment technical report NCAR-7100-76/2. National

Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., February 1976, p. 3.

3 * Ibid., p.

419

The Alberta hail project was initiated in 1973 to accelerate develop-

ing of the 18,000 square mile target area with silver iodide from air-

craft was begun in 1974. While there is randomization by days in the

northern half of the target area, there is full operational seeding in

the southern half. 35 Although data from the first 2 years of the experi-

ment were still being analysed when Simpson wrote her evaluation in

1976, she concluded that the following information would likely be

gained from the research under the Alberta hail project : 36

1. Resolving the conditions for multicell versus supercell, leading

to resolution of whether or not different seeding strategies are required.

2. Resolving the merits of on-top versus cloud-base seeding for vari-

ous storm types.

3. Providing "transfer functions'' between crop damage, hailfall

parameters, meteorological conditions, hailpads and hail report cards.

4. Developing and testing, with an adequate data base, numerical

simulations of hailstorms and the conditions conducive to them.

Another Canadian weather modification project of some interest

was initiated in the Northwest Territories in 1975. The purpose of this

Summer Cumulus Rainfall Experiment is to study the possibility of

controlling forest fires through increased precipitation by cloud seed-

ing. 37

MEXICO

Kraemer of the Mexican Ministry of Hydraulic Resources summarized

ongoing projects in three principal areas of the country. 37a

Initiated in 1949 with the purpose of augmenting runoff for hydro-

electric power generation, the most sustained operational program

had been sponsored by the Mexican Light & Power Co. in the Necaxa