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--- XT: Delays / Gaps in Coverage Coming



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--- XT: Delays / Gaps in Coverage Coming




Cost overruns and delays now and even if satellites are launched on schedule there will be a months of limited coverage


WMTW, 14 (4/30/2014, WMTW-TV 8, “Satellites key in predicting killer storms; Inside look at NOAA's Satellite Operations Center,” http://www.wmtw.com/news/satellites-key-in-predicting-killer-storms/25701780#!0z6st, JMP)
NOAA is working to launch the next generation of weather satellites, but for now the program remains on a federal high-risk list.

The Government Accountability Office cites the potential for a gap in satellite data if older satellites fail before new ones can be put in place.

NOAA said a satellite data gap could result in less accurate forecasts. The Commerce Department's inspector general said cost overruns and delays are to blame.



NOAA said the next wave of polar orbiting satellites will begin launching in 2017.

A new geostationary satellite is scheduled to launch in early 2016.

Even if those schedules are met, the inspector general said we could see 10 to 16 months of limited satellite coverage.

Data gap still likely despite full funding now


Leone, 14 (4/28/2014, Dan, “Profile | Mary Kicza, Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,” http://www.spacenews.com/article/features/40378profile-mary-kicza-assistant-administrator-for-satellite-and-information, JMP)
Thus NOAA’s two main weather satellite development programs — the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) — were fully funded in the omnibus spending bill that passed in December and covers federal activities for the remainder of 2014. What’s more, Congress tried to shield these efforts from sequestration, the across-the-board spending cuts that affected virtually all other federal activities beginning in March 2013.

Nonetheless, the possibility of a gap in NOAA’s data-collection capabilities still looms, thanks largely to the 2010 cancellation of a troubled polar-orbiting weather satellite program that was intended to replace separate legacy systems operated by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force, and delays to JPSS, the civilian program that emerged in its stead.

Also facing uncertainty are certain climate change sensors that are now NOAA’s responsibility but cannot fit on the first JPSS platform. NOAA had planned to fly these sensors on a dedicated satellite dubbed Polar Free Flyer, but Congress chose not to fund that program in 2014 and the agency is now looking at alternatives.

Weather satellite failures now --- there will be a long gap in coverage


Hotz, 13 (6/21/2013, Robert Lee, “For Weather Satellites, Forecast Is Cloudy; Failures of Aging Devices Threaten to Leave Gap in Key Data,” http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324049504578543331078279910?mobile=y, JMP)
The main U.S. weather satellite watching the eastern seaboard malfunctioned last month for the second time in a year, underscoring the hazards of aging satellites that monitor the planet as a threatening hurricane season gets under way.

Engineers got it running again. But the difficulties with the seven-year-old weather satellite, called GOES-13, are a symptom of a broader problem, federal, congressional and university analysts say. Scientists are losing one by one their orbital eyes on Earth, at a time when space-based sensors have become indispensable for monitoring weather, natural disasters and the atmosphere.



Weather forecasters soon will lose key satellite images and atmospheric measurements for a year or substantially more, because GOES-13 and another spacecraft are expected to fail before replacements can be launched, federal and congressional auditors said. About 500 federal projects and private contractors—including commercial firms that use the images for TV weather forecasts—rely on data from the satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"NOAA is having a real crisis with regard to the weather satellites," said atmospheric scientist Dennis Hartmann at the University of Washington in Seattle, who heads a National Research Council committee that monitors Earth-observation satellite programs.

Major gaps in coverage likely --- programs are mismanaged and behind schedule


Hotz, 13 (6/21/2013, Robert Lee, “For Weather Satellites, Forecast Is Cloudy; Failures of Aging Devices Threaten to Leave Gap in Key Data,” http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324049504578543331078279910?mobile=y, JMP)
All told, 14 of the 23 active satellites monitored by NASA's Earth Observing System Project Science Office at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., have exceeded their engineering design life, with few replacements in view. The number of Earth-monitoring sensors in orbit aboard such spacecraft is expected to drop to fewer than 30 by the end of the decade from 110 last year, as aging satellites fail, costs soar and space missions go awry, according to the National Research Council.

NOAA normally relies on two types of weather satellites: One set, including GOES-13, in "geosynchronous" orbit 22,300 miles above the same fixed spot over the U.S., and a second set of satellites that travels in a lower polar orbit and scans the entire Earth every day. One polar orbiter—itself already a temporary replacement—is nearing the end of its estimated life span.



NOAA, NASA and the Defense Department have tried since 1994 to develop new polar-orbiting weather satellites, but their joint effort was racked by mismanagement, billions in cost overruns and technical challenges, said information-technology expert David Powner at the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

NOAA's current $12.9 billion effort to replace the polar spacecraft is so far behind schedule that the next satellite won't be launched until 2017 at the earliest, which is past the design lifetime of the youngest polar-orbiting satellite currently in orbit, according to GAO auditors and the Commerce Department's Inspector General.

As a result, experts expect to start losing some weather-satellite data as soon as next year, with a gap in satellite coverage lasting from 17 to 53 months.

At the same time, NOAA's $10.9 billion program to build new geosynchronous weather satellites is struggling.

A replacement for GOES-13 is scheduled to launch in 2015. Federal and congressional auditors, though, warn it may be a year late. Even then, some of its advanced sensors won't be ready. Budget cuts related to the so-called sequester may delay the launch an additional two to three years.

Senior NOAA officials this month didn't want to be questioned about their effort to replace the weather satellites, turning down requests for interviews. In a statement, they said NOAA "continues to develop mitigation plans for any potential gap in satellite coverage. These plans will be reassessed on a biannual basis to account for new developments as they occur."

So far, GOES-13 has survived the hard knocks of space.

The Boeing Co.-built spacecraft normally tracks weather along the Atlantic coast, but on May 22 it stopped transmitting images. By June 10, NOAA satellite engineers concluded it had been knocked off balance when a tiny space rock smashed into its solar panels. As a stopgap, NOAA engineers activated their sole backup weather satellite while they scrambled to repair the errant spacecraft.

"We were essentially riding on our spare tire," said atmospheric scientist Marshall Shepherd at the University of Georgia, who is president of the American Meteorological Society. "And that spare is in the twilight of its career."




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