Summary on Overall Project Feasibility
Comparable in-unit amenity package and services; good unit floor plans overall; common area amenities are comparable to the complexes in the market. The micro-location is very good for the type of complex such as the subject. The subject’s rehabilitation plan for the property should have a strong positive impact on the neighborhood as well as the overall market. Access is good. This development should perform very well over the foreseeable future.
The complex has an excellent location related to employment, and is convenient to all commercial and retail shopping within the Valdosta market. Major highways and arterial roads are very convenient to the subject site.
SUMMARY OF STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
OF THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT
Strength
|
Weaknesses
|
Unit amenities are rated as good.
|
None
|
The subject has comparable unit and site amenities as compared to the immediate market.
|
|
Medical facilities are in close proximity.
|
|
The subject already has 100% occupancy and plans to remain primary occupied with Section 8 tenants.
|
|
Location and availability of social services is very good.
|
|
Shopping is within walking distance.
|
|
Public services are within walking distance.
|
|
Employment is within walking distance.
|
|
AERIAL VIEW OF SUBJECT LOCATION
MARKET AREA
The analysts consulted with real estate professionals in the Valdosta market as well as surveying the entire market. After numerous discussions and field work, it was determined that the primary market area for the subject development is defined by a drive time of 15 minutes. The vast majority of market draw will come from the City of Valdosta. The subject development will have limited draw from other areas of Lowndes County, but that number will be very limited due to the rural agricultural nature of the outlying areas of the county.
Additionally, the subject is located near downtown Valdosta and is close in proximity to the business center of Valdosta as well as the university.
Thanks to its prime location, Valdosta is the business and retail hub for South Georgia and North Florida.
Located at a major Interstate crossroad, Valdosta is easily accessible by I-75 and I-10. The city's modern airport has daily connecting flights to Atlanta, which means the rest of the country and the rest of the world are just a few hours away.
As the regional rail center, Valdosta is served by CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Valdosta Railway. If ships are the preferred mode of transportation, the ports of Savannah, GA, Brunswick, GA, and Jacksonville, FL, are all nearby.
In Valdosta, business is booming. Large companies attract skilled workers, and the area's factory outlets, malls, and shops attract droves of shoppers. In the past decade alone, 7,500 new jobs were created as a result of the area's growing economy.
Valdosta’s new 47,000 square foot conference center was completed in the first quarter of 2000. The five industrial parks and one business park provide prime locations for businesses considering a move to the Valdosta area.
The Industrial Authority is a joint organization that oversees industrial and economic development in Valdosta and Lowndes County. The Authority was formed by an amendment to the Georgia State Constitution in 1960. It is made up of a five-member board that includes two city appointees, two county appointees, and one joint appointee. Members serve five-year terms. The officers of the board are the Chairman, Vice-Chairman, and Secretary. Day-to-day operations are conducted by the staff of the Industrial Authority, which includes an Executive Director, an Assistant Director, an Administrative Assistance and an intern.
The Valdosta-Lowndes County Industrial Authority has a wide range of powers from which to promote economic development in the city and the county. The Authority can buy and sell property. It can also provide assistance to new and existing businesses to foster economic growth.
MAJOR AREA EMPLOYERS
Company
|
Type of Business
|
Employees
|
Moody Air Force Base
|
Military
|
4,448
|
South Georgia Medical Center
|
Hospital
|
2,300
|
Valdosta State University
|
Education
|
2,280
|
Lowndes County School System
|
Education
|
1,279
|
Valdosta City School System
|
Education
|
950
|
Convergys Corp.
|
Customer Service
|
733
|
City of Valdosta
|
Government
|
659
|
Lowndes County
|
Government
|
540
|
Packaging Corp. of America
|
Kraft Paper
|
350
|
Roadway Express
|
Transportation
|
450
|
Lowe's Distribution Center
|
Distribution
|
450
|
Langdale
|
Forest Products
|
390
|
Regal Marine
|
Yachts
|
120
|
SAFT America
|
Batteries
|
232
|
Southern Bag
|
Textile Bags
|
300
|
Dillard's Distribution Center
|
Clothing/Retail Center
|
275
|
Eller Industries
|
Fiberglass Tubs
|
200
|
Georgia Power Company
|
Utility
|
150
|
Griffin Corp.
|
Agricultural Chemicals
|
200
|
MARKET AREA
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
The employment base is well diversified.
Approximately 57.6% of the employed are in white-collar occupations, while 22% of the employment is in blue-collar occupations and 20.4% of the employment is in services. Approximately 41.76% of all households are renters, as well.
Only 19% of the population travels less than 10 minutes work, while 69.5% of the population travels less than 20 minutes to work. Only 8.4% of the population travels over 35 minutes to work. This indicates that a large percentage of employment is inside the market area.
At 49.7%, the service sector employs the highest percentage of the population, with retail/wholesale trade second at 18.4%.
For the market area, the population in the age group 16 and older in the labor force is 63.6% and 36.4% are not in the labor force.
Of the population in the labor force, 94.0% are employed and 6.0% are unemployed.
All of these statistics indicate a strong local as well as market area economy.
The following population trends were occurring in the State, County, and Market Area as of the valuation date:
POPULATION TREND
|
|
2000
|
2007
|
Forecast
2012
|
Change
2000-2007
|
Change
2007-2012
|
State
|
8,186,453
|
9,133,680
|
10,162,517
|
11.6%
|
11.3%
|
County
|
92,115
|
102,189
|
109,893
|
10.94%
|
7.54%
|
Market
|
69,084
|
76,236
|
81,888
|
10.35%
|
7.41%
|
U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI
As shown, the population within the State, County, and Market have shown moderate annual increases during the current decade. A forecast for population in the Year 2012 indicates the same trend for the state, county, and market area.
The population within the state, county, and market area was distributed as follows during 2007:
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
|
|
%
Under
16 Yrs.
|
%
65 Yrs.
& Over
|
%
Over 18 Yrs
|
Median Age
|
Persons/
Household
|
State
|
21.6%
|
8.6%
|
74.3%
|
34.5
|
2.64
|
County
|
19.9%
|
10.6%
|
75.4%
|
31.1
|
2.51
|
Market
|
20.3%
|
11.6%
|
74.8%
|
30.7
|
2.49
|
U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI
In researching current demographic data for the area, we researched the U.S. Bureau of the Census as well as the Environmental Systems Research Institute information databases. We also conducted interviews with local government officials and property managers. We found the published U.S. Bureau of the Census figures to be holding true, and that the area has not seen any increase in population due to the hurricanes along the U.S. gulf coast during 2005.
Transportation Data
The nearest airport in the area is the Valdosta Regional Airport, a modern regional airport fully equipped with a modern terminal building, lighted paved runways, a computerized weather center and fueling facilities. The airport is served with commercial passenger service with flights daily to Atlanta.
Atlanta International Airport, approximately 4 hours drive north of Valdosta, serves as the area’s international airport with daily passenger and freight service provided by many major air carriers.
CSX Railroad operates sections of railway that crisscross Valdosta, linking this community to Jacksonville, Savannah, Atlanta and beyond. In addition, many motor freight carriers operate routes through Valdosta, while three of these have local offices. Both the railroad and motor freight carriers offer traditional transport as well as inter-modal transport.
Interstate 75 is the major north-south artery through Valdosta and connects Valdosta with the rest of the interstate highway system to the north and south. Interstates 10 is located less than one hour to the south of Valdosta, with Interstate 16 located approximately one hour to the north.
Distances to major market areas include:
Name
|
Distance
|
Tifton, GA
|
30 miles north
|
Albany, GA
|
60 miles northwest
|
Columbus, GA
|
160 miles northwest
|
Tallahassee, FL
|
60 miles south
|
Macon, GA
|
100 miles north
|
Panama City, FL
|
120 miles southwest
|
Atlanta, GA
|
180 miles north
|
Income and Household Trends
Population in the market area has grown steadily with an increase of 10.35% since 2000 to 76,236. During the same period, the number of households increased by 14.02% to 29,042. The number of households is expected to increase by 8.73% by the year 2012 to 31,576. This should have a positive impact on the demand for rental housing in the area. The size of the households is expected to remain relatively the same at 2.4 persons/household. The ability of the city to attract manufacturing jobs to the area, along with the growth from the university, has helped to improve the population stability.
Market Area
POPULATION TREND
Year
|
Population
|
% Change
|
2000
|
69,084
|
|
2007
|
76,236
|
10.35%
|
2012 Projection
|
81,888
|
7.41%
|
Market Area
HOUSEHOLDS
Market Area
|
Households
|
% Change
|
2000 Census
|
25,470
|
|
2007 Estimate
|
29,042
|
14.02%
|
2012 Projection
|
31,576
|
8.73%
|
2007 Market Area
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Income Range
|
Percentage
|
Number of households
|
Less than $15,000
|
18.6%
|
5,388
|
$15,000 - $24,999
|
14.1%
|
4,107
|
$25,000 - $34,999
|
11.3%
|
3,274
|
$35,000 - $49,999
|
14.6%
|
4,233
|
$50,000 - $74,999
|
19.1%
|
5,553
|
$75,000 - $99,999
|
10.0%
|
2,915
|
$100,000 - $149,999
|
7.5%
|
2,189
|
$150,000 - $199,999
|
2.4%
|
686
|
$200,000 +
|
2.4%
|
692
|
2012 Market Area
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Income Range
|
Percentage
|
Number of households
|
Less than $15,000
|
15.7%
|
4,965
|
$15,000 - $24,999
|
11.9%
|
3,753
|
$25,000 - $34,999
|
10.7%
|
3,363
|
$35,000 - $49,999
|
14.6%
|
4,622
|
$50,000 - $74,999
|
17.7%
|
5,580
|
$75,000 - $99,999
|
12.1%
|
3,823
|
$100,000 - $149,999
|
10.6%
|
3,347
|
$150,000 - $199,999
|
3.0%
|
937
|
$200,000 +
|
3.7%
|
1,182
|
2007 Market Area
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Market Area
|
Income
|
Median Household Income
|
$40,126
|
Average Household Income
|
$55,491
|
Per Capita Income
|
$21,820
|
2012 Market Area
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Market Area
|
Income
|
Median Household Income
|
$46,705
|
Average Household Income
|
$66,436
|
Per Capita Income
|
$26,335
|
The number of households increased significantly between 2000 and 2007, and is expected to increase at the same trend between 2007 and 2012.
The average household size is 2.4 persons.
Only 54.3% of the housing stock was built prior to 1979. The average age of the apartment complexes in the area is 29 years.
41.76% of the households in the market are renters.
The market occupancy is presently reported to be 95%.
The median household income is $40,126 while the per capita income is $21,820.
Over 57% of the households are one-person (25.4%) and two-person (32.2%) households. 32.4% of the households are three-person (18.6%) to four-person (13.8%). 10.0% of the households are five-person and above. This equates to 57.6% of households who would require one-bedroom units, 32.4% of households who would require two-bedroom units, and 23.8% of households that would require three-bedroom housing units. There is some overlap in these numbers due to three and four person households that would opt for either 2-bedroom or 3-bedroom units due to numerous circumstances. Only 1.4% of the households in the market are over 6 persons.
65.6% of the households in the market area are family households. Of those, over 36.7% of the households have children living at home. This is further verified by the average family size of 2.4 persons. In addition, 9% of households are multi-person non-family households.
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