Misc Resource Wars Impact
Oil peak is exaggerated – new reserves and increasing domestic oil
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- No impact to oil peak – natural transition to alternatives and substitutes
Oil peak is exaggerated – new reserves and increasing domestic oilBonner, 6-28-12 - written two New York Times best-selling books, Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt. With political journalist Lila Rajiva, he wrote his third New York Times best-selling book, Mobs, Messiahs and Markets, which offers concrete advice on how to avoid the public spectacle of modern finance; Since 1999, Bill has been a daily contributor and the driving force behind The Daily Reckoning (Bill, “The Biggest Fraud in Economics is…Economics?”, Christian Science Monitor, 6/28/2012, http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Daily-Reckoning/2012/0628/The-biggest-fraud-in-economics-is-economics)//AY *Porter Stansberry: American financial publisher and the creator of the 2011 online video and infomercial titled "End of America": founded Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, a private publishing company; currently the editor of Agora Inc.'s financial newsletter Forget ‘peak oil.’ Or so they say. It has fracked its way to energy self-sufficiency. Porter Stansberry there are roughly 20 major shale oil plays in the US. The largest five of these new reservoirs have more than 20 billion barrels of recoverable oil… meaning that each of these new fields is not only the largest in US history (by a wide margin), but that each of them, individually, would more than double the proven reserves of domestic oil… That is why America is on track to be the world’s leading producer of oil within the next five or six years… and why the most knowledgeable oil analysts are predicting a new all-time high of American oil production by 2017. In fact, we’ve already become a net energy exporter for the first time since 1949. The Wall Street Journal tells us that the US will not import a single barrel of oil from the Middle East by 2035. Hey, wait a minute. Wasn’t that supposed to be why we’re spending trillions on wars in Middle East…to keep vital supplies of black goo headed our way? Of course, the numbers never really made any sense. Neither did the logic of it. It would have been a whole lot cheaper just to buy the oil on the open market. Trillions cheaper. But money isn’t everything. The US needs to guarantee access to oil…or its whole economy might be brought to its knees. Which is probably a good place to introduce a new idea The biggest fraud in economics is economics itself. What’s the point of having an economy? It is so that people will get the stuff they need and want. The more efficient the economy, the more stuff people get with the least effort and expense of resources. It makes no sense to waste trillions of dollars’ worth of resources just to “protect the economy.” The whole point of an economy is to create more stuff…not to waste it. You might just as well try to protect your health by committing suicide. Most economists are fools or knaves. The knaves want to get prestigious jobs and Nobel prizes by offering crackpot advice. The fools think it will work. A few months ago, they were concerned with peaks. There was a peak in oil production. There was a peak in food production. There was a peak in available water coming. Then, a peak in peaks must have been hit. Now there is a peak in valleys. All of a sudden, the peaks are far away. Commodity prices are falling, not rising. Deflation is economists’ worry, not inflation. Deflation is an impediment to growth; everyone believes it. No impact to oil peak – natural transition to alternatives and substitutesPerry, 6-5-12 - professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan; holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University in Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. Since 1997, Professor Perry has been a member of the Board of Scholars for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a nonpartisan research and public policy institute in Michigan (Mark, “Julian Simon, Power Of Market Prices, Why We’ll Never Run Out Of Oil, Why Peak Oil Is Peak Idiocy”, Daily Markets, 6/5/12, http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2012/06/04/julian-simon-power-of-market-prices-why-well-never-run-out-of-oil-why-peak-oil-is-peak-idiocy/)//AY As resource economist Julian Simon taught us years ago, we never have, and never will, run out of scarce resources like oil because as a resource becomes more scarce, its price will rise, which will set in motion a series of actions that will counteract the scarcity. For example, higher prices for oil will increase the incentives to: a) find more oil, b) conserve on the use of oil, and c) find more substitutes. And that’s exactly what’s happened recently in response to higher oil prices – domestic crude oil production reached a 14-year high in March, and the share of rigs drilling for oil (vs. natural gas) set a new record high of 70% last week. And now an LA Times article today highlights how companies are making efforts to find substitutes for high-priced oil, here are some examples: 1. Ford has eliminated 5 million pounds of petroleum annually by using soybean-based cushions in all of its North American vehicles. The company said it got rid of an additional 300,000 pounds of oil-based resins a year by making door bolsters out of kenaf, a tropical plant in the cotton family. “Finding alternative sources for materials is becoming imperative as petroleum prices continue to rise and traditional, less-sustainable materials become more expensive,” said John Viera, Ford’s global director of sustainability and vehicle environmental matters. 2. BioSolar Inc. of Santa Clarita, Calif., dealt every day with the fact that solar modules are typically made with a glass front, an aluminum frame and a back sheet made out of a petroleum-based plastic or polymer. “We saw where the price of petroleum was going,” BioSolar CEO David Lee said. “We’re not economists, but we knew that the price of oil was going to keep going up. The cost of photovoltaic cell manufacturing was going to skyrocket.” BioSolar has changed its process to instead use castor beans. 3. Los Angeles businessman Neal Harris once relied on beads made from a petroleum-based polymer to hold fragrances for his company’s products. Harris’ company, Scent-Events, sells fragrances as a marketing tool to enhance movie premieres, concerts, parties and products. This year, he’ll use ceramic beads 95 percent of the time. “It’s saving us money, and we no longer have to keep track of oil prices,” Harris said. 4. In March, McDonald’s began a tryout of double-walled paper hot-drink cups in 2,000 restaurants, in place of polystyrene containers, which start out as petroleum. 5. Coca-Cola Co. and PepsiCo Inc. are becoming bioplastics bottlers. As Daniel Yergin, an energy consultant who wrote a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry, told the LA Times, “Now there are accelerating efforts to squeeze oil out and find ways to substitute for it. That is the power of price.” Directory: files files -> Answer True False 2 points Question 2 files -> Integer programming and game theory files -> 4 Integer Programming files -> Bpa vehicle Window Repair Scenario #1 task: Procure vehicle window relacement. 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