Mission report washington, D. C. And chicago, united states


Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy



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Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy





  1. The visit to the United States took place at a key moment in the US presidential primary campaign. The future of NATO has emerged as an important theme in these elections. Several analysts suggested that Donald Trump has given voice to a feeling among some Americans that US leadership has become a thankless and unrewarding task. In contrast, Ivo Daalder stressed that the Administration and many Republicans continue to see NATO as critical to the defence of vital US security interests. He warned that the biggest threat NATO Allies confront is the potential renationalisation of defence and security policies.




  1. Heather Conley, a Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic and Director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that this is not at all a happy moment in Alliance relations, even if government officials seek to put a positive spin on where things stand. Ms Conley warned that even though the Alliance confronts serious challenges to the east and the south, the greatest threats may lie within. The health of national economies and growing political polarisation are a serious concern she suggested. She noted that the current American political debate has begun to question the core structures of the international system that the United States has long identified as fundamentally in its interest. She pointed to a “collapse in faith in our institutions” and eroding optimism, and warned that “our values are becoming unhinged”. There is a sense in many allied societies that governments are no longer capable of solving complex social, economic and security problems, and, she added, there is a growing disconnect between the public and policy elite. Governments have lost control of the message and a few negative and misleading tweets can undo years of careful work. Mr Daalder suggested that part of the problem may lie with the declining economic prospects for many in the West who long held aspirations for economic improvement. This, he said, is not a uniquely American problem but rather is a problem that many allied countries confront today.




  1. Governments and security experts need to find ways to address young people, in part, by using new media more effectively. But more importantly, a conversation is needed to reaffirm why institutions like the NATO Alliance are essential to the well-being of citizens. She suggested that unless this conversation takes place, it will be very difficult to convince the public to support and fund these institutions. Many citizens see NATO only as a cost and not as a benefit, and this false argument gathers more power when Western economies seem caught in a pattern of slow growth and low job creation. The American public is very concerned that European societies seem reluctant to appropriate adequate funding for their own defence. This concern is now expressed politically both by the executive and legislative branches. It is also a difficult argument to make in the United States when the problems in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan seem so intractable and long term. For this reason it is essential for Europe to make progress on achieving the Wales commitments of 2% of GDP dedicated to defence spending and 20% of spending on equipment and research and development.




  1. Ms Conley noted that many foreign policy elites both inside and outside the government are concerned that Britain may leave the European Union and characterised this as a risk to the institutional foundations that have created peace on the continent. This view was echoed several times during the visit.




  1. Ms Conley noted that CSIS has an ongoing project on the Arctic and said that while this region has long been characterised as a zone of international cooperation, it is increasingly understood to be a region of rivalry. Russia has built up its forces along the Arctic littoral, upgraded its area denial and anti-access capabilities, and enhanced air, naval and special force presence in the region. NATO, she suggested, needs to have a discussion about what is happening in this remote region and ought to recognise that the region is not as benign as was once thought.




  1. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Council, also expressed concerns about the internal challenges the Atlantic community confronts. The tumultuous elections in the United States, the rising flow of refugees into Europe, and the Brexit debate in the United Kingdom are all unfolding at a moment of grave security danger on the continent but also at a time when some, including one of the US presidential candidates, are questioning the purpose of the Alliance. Foreign policy elites confront a serious problem because they broadly understand NATO as a force multiplier that is a tremendous asset to American security. But it is proving difficult to convey this message in the fragmented media and information environment which also seems to be a factor in driving political change. Finding new ways to reconstitute a broadly shared sense of purpose within the NATO community has become a central concern at the Atlantic Council, he noted. Jorge Benitiz, the editor of NATO Source, later discussed how this Atlantic Council website and other social media outlets are reaching out to link together those with an interest in the trans-Atlantic relationship.


  1. Nuclear Deterrence





  1. Leo Michel, a non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, explored NATO’s deterrence posture and Russia’s challenge to it. He noted that after a lengthy pause, Russia is modernising its nuclear forces, including land-based intercontinental and sub-marine launched missiles, and strategic bombers. It has engaged in simulated attacks on NATO forces, deployed prohibited ground-launched cruise missiles and used highly provocative rhetoric on nuclear weapons. This sabre-rattling is reckless and undermines respect for hitherto accepted norms which have long preserved a degree of stability.




  1. The Obama Administration has made a strong recommitment to nuclear force modernisation and plans to sustain and indeed to modernise the nuclear triad. It is replacing part of its nuclear capable submarine and bomber fleets at a very high price tag. The effort could cost as much as $18 billion a year. The United States also recognises the importance of the French and British nuclear deterrent forces and he suggested that it is important for allies to continue to exchange information on nuclear matters so that there is a broad understanding of the purpose and doctrine that makes these forces essential elements of NATO’s deterrence posture. Mr Michel suggested that NATO needs to revamp the nuclear planning group in NATO, although there are some alliance countries that are reluctant to do so. But Mr Michel suggested in response to such opposition that NATO’s nuclear posture is actually an expression of transatlantic solidarity and that all member governments have signed up to language that recognises NATO as a nuclear alliance. Deterrence is a critical allied mission, and there needs to be more frank discussion about what this entails and what the nuclear component of deterrence actually means. There are 16 allied countries contributing to the nuclear mission, he added, even if only three are actually nuclear armed states.




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