Morice Land and Resource Management Plan



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Opportunity Analysis

Almost two-thirds of the Morice Plan area (970,000 hectares) is considered to be of extreme or high metallic mineral potential. Of this, 70,588 hectares covered by mining claims representing five percent of the total Morice Plan area. Perhaps the most promising underground mine development potential in the Morice Plan area is that associated with the Dome Mountain, Fireweed, and Silver Queen deposits.


Dome Mountain still has about 200,000 tonnes of known ore resource remaining. The key metal is gold, which is estimated at 14.9 grams of gold per tonnes. At the Fireweed property there is an estimated 580,000 tonnes of ore with 342 grams of silver per tonne. The proven reserve at Fireweed also has 2.2 percent zinc and 1.1 percent lead per tonne. Finally, the Silver Queen property, with 205,000 tonnes of known ore barring tonnage has 830 grams of silver and 0.99 grams of gold per tonne. It’s also estimated that the Silver Queen site has 4 percent per tonne of zinc and has reported the presence of the advance metals Gallium and Germanium.

Location Analysis

Underground mining faces many of the same logistical challenges faced by open pit mining operations. Besides the physical land surface over the mineral deposit, there would be specific infrastructure requirements including:




  • Access to an affordable energy supply – New transmission lines may need to be developed to an underground mine site. While using diesel power for electricity can be an option for underground work it is often very expensive for processing if a lot of energy is required.

  • Transportation Infrastructure – New mines are often located away from existing transportation infrastructure. Typically at a minimum, this involves building new road infrastructure. In more remote areas it is likely that all manpower and materials may need to be flown in by plane or helicopter. This significantly increases the cost of mine operation.

As well, the underground mine would need to ensure it had:




  • Skilled Labour Force – Underground mining will require several specialized skills. Depending on the location of the mine it is possible that these employees will be located some distance from the actual mine site and fly in to complete their shifts. However, the mining industry today is also more likely than in the past to hire local workers and train them for specific jobs. This is particularly the case with new mines and their involvement local of indigenous peoples in remote areas.

  • Key Service Providers – Underground mining requires numerous specialized pieces of machinery to move waste rock and ore and undertake the ore processing. This equipment needs on-going and timely service and maintenance support. Even though Smithers has a sizable mine contracting labour force, it is likely their will be significant leakage of mine expenditures from the local area.



Market Analysis




Current Production Trends

The known mineral resources in the Morice LRMP area consist primarily of five key metals; copper, lead, gold, silver, and molybdenum. The following highlights the current world production for gold and silver, which are more likely to be associated with underground mining.16


Gold – Of an estimated 142,600 tonnes of all gold ever mined, about 15 percent is thought to have been lost, used in dissipative industrial uses, or otherwise unrecoverable or unaccounted for. Of the remaining 121,100 tonnes, an estimated 33,000 tonnes are official stocks held by central banks and about 88,000 tonnes are privately held as coins, bullion, and jewelry.
South Africa is the largest gold producing nation in the world producing approximately 395 kilograms of gold in 2002. Canada is the seventh largest producer mining 147,666 kilograms of the precious metal in 2002. Canadian companies are also major players in exploring and developing gold deposits around the world. Figure 9 outlines the leading gold producing nations and the general trend in gold production in recent years.
Figure 9. Leading Gold Producing Countries and World Gold Production

Leading Gold Producing Countries – 2002

World Gold Production – 1997 to 2002





Source: US Geological Survey.
Silver – More than two-thirds of world silver resources are associated with copper, lead, and zinc deposits, often at great depths. The remainder is in vein deposits in which gold is the most valuable metallic component. Although most recent discoveries have been primarily gold and silver deposits, significant future reserves are expected from major base metal discoveries that contain silver. Although the price of silver and improved technology may appear to increase the reserves and reserve base, the extraction of silver from these resources will be driven by demand for the base metals (Figure 10).
Figure 10. Leading Silver Producing Countries and World Mine Production

Leading Silver Producing Countries – 2002

World Silver Production – 1997 to 2002





Source: US Geological Survey.

Market Demand and Price Trend

Gold and silver have been showing renewed strength in 2003. However, between 1998 and 2002, gold prices had shown marked weakness, consistently selling below or near $300 an ounce. However, in recent months gold has moved up strongly. Gold is anticipated to remain strong over the next few years. Gold has traditionally served as a hedge against uncertainty and with recent world events gold is again starting to play this role. However, probably more importantly, gold is priced in US dollars. Currently the United States is aggressively expanding the money supply, which in turn devalues the US currency and inflates the price of gold.


Silver is also expected to trend up over the next couple of years as well but is anticipated to lag the increases that will be experienced by gold. The primary reason is that silver, while it will often increase in sympathy to gold prices, trades more like base metals, driven by industrial demand for the metal. Table 18 outlines the historical prices for gold and silver.

Table 18. Commodity Prices for Gold and Silver




Gold

Silver




(US$/oz)

(US$/ troy oz)

1995

384.16

5.19

1996

387.82

5.18

1997

331.10

4.89

1998

294.18

5.53

1999

278.78

5.25

2000

279.00

5.00

2001

271.09

4.39

2002

309.97

4.62

2003 F

353.65

4.80

2004 F

373.08

4.94

Source: TD Bank Financial Group Commodities Price Report.


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