Carroll 3 (Jamer, former Shorenstein Fellow @ Kennedy School of Gov @ Harvard , 10/28/3, http://www.commondreams.org/views03/1028-03.htm) JPG
Two weeks ago China put a man in space, a signal of China's arrival -and of the arrival of this grave question. Beijing has invested heavily in commercial development of space and will become a significant economic competitor in that sphere. But such peaceful competition presumes a framework of stability, and it is inconceivable that China can pursue a mainly nonmilitary space program while feeling vulnerable to American military dominance. China has constructed a minimal deterrent force with a few dozen nuclear-armed ICBMs, but US "global engagement" based on a missile defense, will quickly undercut the deterrence value of such a force. The Chinese nuclear arsenal will have to be hugely expanded. Meanwhile, America's "high frontier" weapons capacity will put Chinese commercial space investments at risk. No nation with the ability to alter it would tolerate such imbalance, and over the coming decades there is no doubt that China will have that capacity. Washington's refusal to negotiate rules while seeking permanent dominance and asserting the right of preemption is forcing China into an arms race it does not want. Here, potentially, is the beginning ofa next cold war, with a nightmare repeat of open-ended nuclear escalation.
That draws in great powers – causes extinction
Straits Times (Singapore), 2000 (“Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” June 25th, Available Online via Lexis-Nexis)
The high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors -- raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japanprivately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.
Space Race ! – China
Space race with China crushes cooperation and fuels rapid space militarization
UCS 8 (Union of Concerned Scientists, Spring 2008, Harvard Asia Pacific Review, http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/international_information/us_china_relations/a-space-race-with-china.html) JPG
In the wake of the January 1999 Report of the Select Committee on US National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China – commonly referred to as the Cox Report - the United States has enforced an increasingly restrictive set of controls governing scientific, commercial, and diplomatic contact with China on space-related matters. These restrictions are intended to prevent the transfer of technologies with military applications deemed threatening t o the United States and its allies in the region. Because many of these technologies also have non-military applications, the restrictions ended all commercial and scientific collaboration between China and the United States and locked the two communities into an adversarial relationship where every Chinese accomplishment is perceived as a threat to the United States. An ironic consequence of the concerted US effort to inhibit Chinese access to advanced space technologies is the acceleration of China's ability to produce these technologies on their own. China made significantly more progress in the eight years since the Cox Report than they did in the eight years prior. In addition to becoming the third nation to master human spaceflight, China's space industry is poised for rapid growth. Two massive researchand production facilities—one in Beijing and the other near Shanghai—will establish China as a significant player in the international satellite industryas well as supply their growing domestic demand for military and civilian satellite applications. China is committed to launching its own global positioning system. They are expanding and upgrading their earth observation capabilities with a new generation of weather and oceanographic satellites, high-resolution imaging satellites, radar satellites and a constellation of low-cost microsatellites. China is also developing a new launch vehicle three times more powerful than the most powerful rocket currently in use.