High oil prices =>transition away now
High oil prices are bringing a gradual transition to renewable transportation
Andris Piebalgs, Energy Commissioner, 6-18-08, Speech at the European Parliament, http://209.85.215.104/search?q=cache:kvsZIYEFtrsJ:europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do%3Freference%3DSPEECH/08/342%26format%3DPDF%26aged%3D0%26language%3DEN%26guiLanguage%3Den+a+transition+is+coming+now+from+high+oil+prices&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a]
You may remember that back in September 2005, I was talking to you about rising oil prices and I presented a five-point plan. Since then we have been rolling out a whole series of new proposals to begin to reply to this challenge; on energy efficiency, CO2 and cars, fuel quality and renewable energy in particular. As a result of these policies, we can expect a gradual decrease in oil consumption in the EU over the coming years, and the beginning of the switch to cleaner more efficient, and often renewable transport.
Status Quo solves—shift to renewables
Rising oil prices create public awareness, fueling the inevitable shift to renewables now
Market Wire 7-06, “Leveraging Against High Oil Prices; Become Educated on Renewable and Green Technology,” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_pwwi/is_200607/ai_n16631543
Tom Djokovich, CEO of XsunX, Inc. (OTCBB: XSNX), provider of technologies for solar energy explains, "As the demand and price for oil continues to increase, the transition to the use of renewables becomes inevitable. Raising public awareness, through contests such as this, is a valuable step in adopting and understanding new ways of creating and utilizing energy."
Steve Schneider, CEO of automotive pioneer ZAP (NYSE: ZP) adds, "Government, industry and private individuals are now demanding more fuel-efficient transportation. This is why ZAP is positioning itself along with RenewableEnergyStocks.com(TM) at the convergence of many different technologies being introduced into the auto industry. Renewable energy will be the primary fuels for the vehicles ZAP is introducing, including electric, ethanol, high-efficiency drive trains and other technologies."
Shift to renewables now
Mohamed T. El-Ashry, Chairman, REN21 , 3-4-08, Presented at WIREC 2008, Washington, DC, http://www.ren21.net/presentations/080304_-_TRANSITION_TO_RENEWABLE_ENERGY.pdf
Renewable energy as we are going to hear throughout this conference, and witness at the ACORE Trade Show, is experiencing virtually a meteoric rise. Once a “niche” market, renewable energy has become a mainstream energy option. The renewable energy sector now accounts for 2.4 million jobs globally, and has doubled electricity generating capacity since 2004. The uptake of renewable energy with double-digit growth rates, and 30-50% for some technologies year after year, marks the beginning of a far ranging transition. The renewable energy movement is gaining strength: a technology like wind is becoming the single most important technology in power capacity additions in Europe. The movement is broadening in scope: more renewable technologies are becoming significant in more countries. And there is more political underpinning: the number of countries with renewable energy supporting policies is steadily growing and it is becoming a challenge to track them all
High oil prices fueling the transition to renewables now
Mohamed T. El-Ashry, Chairman, REN21 , 3-4-08, Presented at WIREC 2008, Washington, DC, http://www.ren21.net/presentations/080304_-_TRANSITION_TO_RENEWABLE_ENERGY.pdf
Renewable energy promotion policies also enjoy broad public support thanks to greater environmental awareness and rising fuel prices. And the public is acknowledging the local economic and social benefits associated with renewables, like income and jobs. Energy dollars, euros, or rupees stay in the local community, to be used for further local investment. I should mention here that in many least developed countries, the additional cost of imported oil has significantly surpassed the debt relief they received from donor countries. Excellencies—current systems of energy supply and use are not sustainable in economic, environmental, or social terms. Continuing along the current path of energy development is not only incompatible with sustainable development objectives but also means that the world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase with the expansion of international trade and competition. The continued steep rise in oil prices, now above $100 a barrel, reflects the emerging concern about meeting the fast growing global demand for energy and the risks of dependency on fossil fuels which currently supply around 80% of global energy needs.
Aff—Current shift to renewables won’t solve
Shift now not enough—prices are rising steadily and we are decades away from alternative fuel
Renewable Energy, 5-02-08, blog, http://renewenergy.wordpress.com/2008/05/02/oil-price-may-go-up-to-250-warn-experts/
Crude prices continue to baffle analysts and pundits. With the $100-era a well established fact in our daily life, there is now a growing chatter within the energy fraternity that $200 a barrel may not be a far fetched idea altogether. Is another global oil shock now gathering pace? With limited additional supplies, alternative fuel still some decades away and demand far from collapsing, Deutsche Bank is pointing to a “huge risk” that oil prices would continue to rise in the near to mid-term. “There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate until it gets to some level (possibly $250) when demand finally collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much energy as they are burning now,” Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank’s chief energy economist, wrote in a report last Friday.
Transition won’t come now—substantial policy intervention is key
[Nate Hagens, The Oil Drum, 12-28-2007, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3442#more]
The debate about "peak oil" aside, there are relatively abundant remaining supplies of fossil fuels. Their quality is declining, but not yet to the extent that increasing scarcity will help trigger a major energy transition like wood scarcity did in the 19th century. The costs of wind, solar and biomass have declined due to steady technical advances, but in key areas of energy quality—density, net energy, intermittancy, flexibility, and so on—they remain inferior to conventional fuels. Thus, alternative energy sources are not likely to supplant fossil fuels in the short term without substantial and concerted policy intervention. The need to restrain carbon emissions may provide the political and social pressure to accelerate the transition to wind, biomass and solar, as this is one area where they clearly trump fossil fuels. Electricity from wind and solar sources may face competition from nuclear power, the sole established low-carbon power source with significant potential for expansion. If concerns about climate change drive a transition to renewable sources, it will be the first time in human history that energetic imperatives, especially the the economic advantages of higher-quality fuels, were not the principal impetus.
Azerbaijan Econ 1NC
A. Azarbaijan’s economy is set to maintain stability—oil boom fuels growth
Tom Krisher, International Business Times, 2-13-07, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20070213/azerbaijan-economy.htm
BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) - Azerbaijan's economy will maintain last year's 35-percent growth rate in 2007, driven by the ex-Soviet nation's oil boom, the president said Tuesday. Oil revenues had allowed the government to create 520,000 new jobs in the nation of 8 million over the last three years and reduce poverty, Ilham Aliev said. "Oil riches have been justly divided between the nation's citizens," he said at an economic conference. "Our oil strategy has been successful because all people have received dividends." Azerbaijan's political opposition has accused Aliev's government of failing to justly distribute the nation's oil wealth and solve the problem of poverty. Aliev succeeded his father, Geidar, a former KGB general who had been in power for a decade, in a 2003 election that was criticized by foreign observers and dismissed as fraudulent by the opposition. Aliev said the country's economy grew by 26 percent in 2005, by 35 percent last year and is expected to maintain last year's growth rate this year. The quick growth has allowed increased budget spending which is set to reach the equivalent of US$6.5 billion this year compared to US$1.4 billion in 2003, Aliev said. The United States backed a 1,760-kilometer (1,100-mile) pipeline delivering oil from offshore oil fields in Azerbaijan to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan for export to the West, bypassing Russia and Iran. A gas line is in the works, and Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan also signed a deal earlier this month to build a railroad line that will provide a new route for trade between the three nations. Aliev hailed the new railroad link, saying it will strengthen Azerbaijan's role as a transit nation.
B. Drop in oil prices kills Azerbaijan’s government revenue and economy
Svetlana Tsalik, director, Caspian Revenue Watch, Central Eurasia Project,
Open Society Institute, 2003 “Caspian Oil Windfalls: Who will benefit?” http://archive.revenuewatch.org/reports/051203.pdf
As a result of the growth of oil production and exports, and a relatively high price for oil, the budget of Azerbaijan has become highly dependent on oil for its revenues. In 2001, the oil sector contributed 29.6 percent of budget revenues. In 2003, oil sector revenues will comprise 32 percent of the government’s budget, according to the parliamentary committee on economic policy.40 Once the oil-related construction and service industries are taken into account, the impact is even larger. As noted elsewhere, the large share that oil plays in government revenues has dangerous consequences in the event of a downturn in the price of oil. According to IMF estimates, each $1 drop in the price of oil translates to a loss of $35 million in government revenue, or approximately 5 percent of total government revenues in the year 2000.41 The impact on the budget will be even greater as production ramps up in the next few years. This risk is aggravated by the absence of a budget stabilization mechanism in the country’s oil fund, as will be discussed below. Since their inception, oil bonuses have been used every year to finance the government’s budget deficit.42 Between 1995 and 2000, oil bonuses financed, on average, 62 percent of budget deficits and, in one year, 90 percent of the budget deficit. In total, $345 million in bonuses have already been spent for this purpose.
C. Azerbaijan’s economy is key to the global economy and security
Daniel S. Sullivan, Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs, 5-16-07, http://www.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/rm/2007/91369.htm
Great to be back in Azerbaijan. Each time I visit Baku I feel the energy of a changing, growing and modernizing economy. I can actually see changes that have taken place since my last visit in February – new roads, bridges and buildings all around the city. Clearly Baku is taking its place as a key regional economic hub. The Azerbaijani economy is taking off, and the country’s oil and gas revenues have the potential to transform the country and the lives of the people here. The United States has deep and long-term interests in the Caspian region. We are committed particularly to helping ensure Azerbaijan’s prosperity, independence, and sovereignty. And we fully support President Aliyev’s commitment to making Azerbaijan a modern, secular, democratic, and market-oriented state. Azerbaijan’s key role in global energy security, our important cooperation on regional security, and the country’s strategic position as the natural gateway between Europe and Central Asia make it an essential partner for the United States. Over the past year, due in large part to the intensive efforts of our Ambassador and your officials, we have intensified our engagement with Azerbaijan across three critical areas: 1) democracy and democratic reform; 2) security cooperation; and 3) energy cooperation and economic reform. Now, my Bureau, as the Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, I focus on the third area – energy and economic cooperation, but we it’s important to recognize that all three of these areas are absolutely very interconnected. We look for progress in all three because progress in each of these three areas reinforces progress in the others and we believe that these three areas moving forward will lead to lasting security, stability, and prosperity that all citizens desire and deserve. Energy Cooperation So let me first talk about the critical area of energy cooperation between our two countries. We have a well-established history of cooperation and trust in the field of energy. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline – which as you know, is one of the most modern, state of the art pipelines in the world – is a symbol and testament to that critical cooperation. Azerbaijan’s regional leadership was essential to bringing the BTC vision to reality. We are building on this tradition of close cooperation in the energy field. This past March, my boss at the State Department Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov signed a memorandum of understanding formally establishing the U.S.-Azerbaijan Energy Dialogue. I co-chair this Dialogue and we had very constructive meetings to further advance our common energy security goals in this area. What are these goals? Well, as we announced today, during the signing of a U.S. Trade and Development Agency grant that will go to SOCAR. We believe we are now embarked on the next stage of Caspian Energy development, which would entail a number of things: 1) enhanced production of oil and gas in Azerbaijan’s offshore sector; 2) continued natural gas exports to Georgia and Turkey, and initial exports to Greece and Italy; 3) further work on the Nabucco pipeline project, with Azerbaijan’s and perhaps Central Asia’s gas moving to markets in Central Europe, and 4) the emergence of Azerbaijan as an oil and gas transit country, as Azerbaijan continues its outreach to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan’s continued leadership will be essential to achieve these goals, as we continue cooperation between the U.S. and Azerbaijan, as well as working to deepen the cooperation between Azerbaijan and our European allies and the European Commission. The commencement of the next phase of Caspian energy development, we believe has already begun. As I mentioned, today we signed a rather large feasibility study to construct an oil and gas pipeline connecting Central Asia to Azerbaijan. This is a big and important step and it is the beginning of many good things to come in terms of the next phase of Caspian energy development. We believe the opportunities in this sector are great and can lead to lasting opportunity for the people of the region. Now is the time to seize these opportunities. U.S.-Azerbaijan EPC The next thing I wanted to talk about was the Economic Partnership Commission that we launched in February. We are seeking to support economic stability and prosperity in Azerbaijan through our work on the U.S.-Azerbaijan EPC – as we call it – which I launched with Minister Sharifov in February of this year. Again, we met today and reviewed goals, reviewed progress, and took stock of what we’ve been doing. We’ve made a of the EPC are to strengthen and deepen economic and commercial engagement between our two countries and ensure Azerbaijan’s continued, sustainable development, wise use of its energy resources and revenues, and successful transition toward a market economy. A healthy empowered private sector is key to broad and sustained economic growth. I am in Azerbaijan to take stock of the EPC progress we have made and to help set future goals under the EPC
D. Economic decline causes a nuclear war
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